Diagnosing and quantifying post-COVID-19 fluctuations in the architecture billings indices
Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management
ISSN: 0969-9988
Article publication date: 27 September 2022
Issue publication date: 1 February 2024
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to understand the post-COVID-19 fluctuations in the building construction demand from various angles at the national, regional, and sectoral levels. Despite the significant impact of COVID-19 on the building construction industry, a detailed quantitative analysis of the COVID-19 impact on the building construction demand is still lacking. The current study aims to (1) establish a statistical approach to quantify the COVID-19 impact on the building construction demand; (2) investigate the post-COVID-19 fluctuations in the construction demand of different building services, regional markets, and building sectors using the historical time series of the architecture billings index (ABI); and (3) identify vulnerable market and sector and discuss the post-COVID-19 recovery strategies.
Design/methodology/approach
The research methodology follows four steps: (1) collecting national, regional, and sectoral ABIs; (2) creating seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average models; (3) illustrating cumulative sum control charts to identify significant ABI deviations; and (4) quantifying the post-COVID-19 ABI fluctuations.
Findings
The results show that all the ABIs experienced a statistically significant decrease after COVID-19. The project inquiries index reduced more but recovered faster than billings and design contracts indices. The midwest billings index decreased the most among the regional ABIs and the commercial/industrial billing index dropped the most among the sectoral ABIs.
Originality/value
This study is unique in the way that it utilized the ABI data and the approach using SARIMA models and CUSUM control charts to assess the post-COVID-19 building construction demand represented by ABI fluctuations.
Keywords
Acknowledgements
The ABI data used in this research were provided by the American Institute of Architects (AIA).
Consent for publication: All authors consent to this article for publication in this journal.
Conflict of interest: All authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.
Citation
Kim, S., Makhmalbaf, A. and Shahandashti, M. (2024), "Diagnosing and quantifying post-COVID-19 fluctuations in the architecture billings indices", Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, Vol. 31 No. 2, pp. 681-695. https://doi.org/10.1108/ECAM-05-2022-0500
Publisher
:Emerald Publishing Limited
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