The current farm downturn vs the 1920s and 1980s farm crises

Wendong Zhang (Department of Economics and Center for Agricultural and Rural Development, College of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Iowa State University, Ames, Iowa, USA)
Kristine Tidgren (Center for Agricultural Law and Taxation, College of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Iowa State University, Ames, Iowa, USA)

Agricultural Finance Review

ISSN: 0002-1466

Publication date: 6 August 2018

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to examine the current farm economic downturn and credit restructuring by comparing it with the 1920s and 1980s farm crises from both economic and regulatory perspectives.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper closely compares critical economic and regulatory aspects of the current farm downturn with two previous farm crises in the 1920s and 1980s, and equally importantly, the golden eras that occurred before them. This study compares key aggregate statistics in land value, agricultural credit, lending regulations, and also evaluates the situations and impacts on individual farmer households by using three representative case studies.

Findings

The authors argue that there are at least three economic and regulatory reasons why the current farm downturn is unlikely to slide into a sudden collapse of the agricultural markets: strong, real income; growth in the 2000s, historically low interest rates; and more prudent agricultural lending practices. The current farm downturn is more likely a liquidity and working capital problem, as opposed to a solvency and balance sheet problem for the overall agricultural sector. The authors argue that the trajectory of the current farm downturn will likely be a gradual, drawn-out one like that of the 1920s farm crisis, as opposed to a sudden collapse as in the 1980s farm crisis.

Originality/value

The review provides empirical evidence for cautious optimism of the future trajectory of the current downturn, and argues that the current downturn is much more similar to the 1920s pattern than the 1980s crisis.

Keywords

Citation

Zhang, W. and Tidgren, K. (2018), "The current farm downturn vs the 1920s and 1980s farm crises", Agricultural Finance Review, Vol. 78 No. 4, pp. 396-411. https://doi.org/10.1108/AFR-08-2017-0075

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Publisher

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Emerald Publishing Limited

Copyright © 2018, Emerald Publishing Limited

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