Prediction of the development cost of commercial aviation aircraft
Aircraft Engineering and Aerospace Technology
ISSN: 0002-2667
Article publication date: 19 February 2019
Issue publication date: 17 May 2019
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to develop a flexible design-oriented development cost method for commercial aviation aircraft based on small sample and poor information.
Design/methodology/approach
To predict the development cost of commercial aviation aircraft accurately, the methodology is based on the collected cost data and actual technical, and then the cost prediction relationships derived from an exhaustive statistical and filtered from regression analysis are incorporated. A series of regression equations with high regression coefficient are yielded after the cost driving factors of the development cost are fixed. Next, several sets of equations with high regression coefficient are selected for final integration. It is a flexible method that can be used efficiently to predict the cost of commercial aviation aircraft.
Findings
The development of commercial aviation aircraft has relatively a late start and no cost prediction model has been suitable for small sample, the proposed method is expected and is rather desirable.
Practical implications
By comparing the approach with the ordinary regression model and back propagation (BP) neural network, the scheme in this work is more efficient and convenient.
Originality/value
The results obtained in this paper show that the proposed method not only has a certain degree of versatility, but also can provide a preliminary prediction of the development cost of commercial aviation aircraft.
Keywords
Acknowledgements
Corrigendum: It has come to the attention of the publisher that the article Xiaonan Chen, Jun Huang, Mingxu Yi and Yalin Pan ‘Prediction of the development cost of general aviation aircraft’ published in Aircraft Engineering and Aerospace Technology volume 91 issue 4, incorrectly used the term “general aviation aircraft” in the place of “commercial aviation aircraft”. This has now been corrected throughout the article including the title. The authors apologise for any confusion that may have occurred due to this.
The authors are very grateful to the reviewers and the editor for their constructive comments and valuable suggestions to improve the presentation of the paper.
Citation
Chen, X., Huang, J., Yi, M. and Pan, Y. (2019), "Prediction of the development cost of commercial aviation aircraft", Aircraft Engineering and Aerospace Technology, Vol. 91 No. 4, pp. 567-574. https://doi.org/10.1108/AEAT-09-2018-0248
Publisher
:Emerald Publishing Limited
Copyright © 2019, Emerald Publishing Limited