Risk mitigation in unstabilized approach with fuzzy Bayesian bow-tie analysis
Aircraft Engineering and Aerospace Technology
ISSN: 0002-2667
Article publication date: 6 August 2020
Issue publication date: 28 October 2020
Abstract
Purpose
Stable approach concept has great importance for the safe operation of an airline during the approach and landing phases. The purpose of this study is to analyse the unstabilized approaches with bow-tie method and determine the threats that may cause risk in an unstable approach.
Design/methodology/approach
In this study, risk assessment of the unstabilized approaches is carried out by using fuzzy bow-tie method and Bayesian networks. Bow-tie method is the combination of event tree analysis and fault tree analysis. Bayesian network is used in the analysis to see interrelationship of basic and intermediate events as well as to update posterior probabilities. Finally, analysis results are verified by the safety performance indicator values.
Findings
In this study, the probabilistic values of the numerical model presented by the risk assessment system for risks were calculated using the fuzzy bow-tie method. Thus, the risk assessment system has been transformed into a structure that can be expressed in a probabilistic manner, and the relationship of the risks within the system has been examined and the effect of a possible change on the risk value has been found to be prevalent.
Originality/value
The bow-tie model is widely applied to assess the risks in aviation. Obtaining prior probabilities is not always possible in the risk assessment process. In this paper, innovative fuzzy bow-tie method is used to assess the risks to overcome the lack of prior probability problem in aviation operations.
Keywords
Citation
Acarbay, C. and Kiyak, E. (2020), "Risk mitigation in unstabilized approach with fuzzy Bayesian bow-tie analysis", Aircraft Engineering and Aerospace Technology, Vol. 92 No. 10, pp. 1513-1521. https://doi.org/10.1108/AEAT-05-2020-0080
Publisher
:Emerald Publishing Limited
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