How Economic Growth in Africa Responds to Chinese Loans: Evidence from New CARI's Loan Dataset

Abstract

This study contributes to the debate about the sustainability of Chinese loans in Africa. The literature suggests that economic growth is among other crucial debt dynamic indicators for assessing debt sustainability in the economy. However, this hypothesis has hardly been tested in the current case due to data ambiguities on Chinese loans to Africa. Following China Africa Research Initiative (CARI)'s initiative to ameliorate these data challenge, this study utilises CARI's dataset in a GMM panel VAR framework for the period (2000–2018) to explore the dynamic relations between Africa's growth and Chinese loans. The methodology is theoretically underpinned by the exogenous growth models that consider physical capital accumulation in the form of savings as a prime growth stimulus in the economy's production function. Thus, Chinese loans are typically viewed as physical capital input that directly adds to Africa's physical capital accumulation. It was found that Africa's growth responds positively to Chinese loans but only in the short run. In the long run, the effects of shocks to Chinese loans on Africa's growth phase out despite the inclusion of merchandise trade as a productivity factor in the model. The findings suggest that Chinese loans can boost Africa's growth through physical capital accumulation. Nonetheless, for growth to continue in the long run, these loans ought to be effectively invested in productive economic sectors that can generate productivity-enhancing economic incentives and enough savings for repayment. This initiative should be complemented by reforming institutions involved in acquiring, investing and servicing Chinese loans.

Citation

Ngundu, M. (2022), "How Economic Growth in Africa Responds to Chinese Loans: Evidence from New CARI's Loan Dataset", Osabuohien, E., Odularu, G., Ufua, D. and Osabohien, R. (Ed.) COVID-19 in the African Continent, Emerald Publishing Limited, Leeds, pp. 183-199. https://doi.org/10.1108/978-1-80117-686-620221015