Catastrophe forecasting: seeing “gray” among the “black boxes”
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to consider the problem of using “black‐box” methods to forecast catastrophe events, and illustrate the value of independent peer review.
Design/methodology/approach
The problem with black‐box catastrophe forecasts is the absence of both extensive validation data and impartial peer review. These issues may be addressed by comparing black‐box forecasts with a set of naïve alternative forecasts provided by an independent party. To illustrate this approach, the historical hurricane forecasts of Dr William M. Gray, professor at Colorado State University, are considered and a simple ARIMA analysis is offered as a naïve alternative.
Findings
The analysis shows that Dr Gray's complex forecasting methodology does in fact provide reasonable forecasts, and may indeed offer value beyond a naïve alternative model.
Originality/value
The editorial identifies a major problem in catastrophe forecasting, and suggests one way to address this problem.
Keywords
Citation
Powers, M.R. (2006), "Catastrophe forecasting: seeing “gray” among the “black boxes”", Journal of Risk Finance, Vol. 7 No. 5, pp. 458-462. https://doi.org/10.1108/15265940610712632
Publisher
:Emerald Group Publishing Limited
Copyright © 2006, Emerald Group Publishing Limited