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A simulation model for evaluating the tariff stability of concession‐based PPP proposals

S. Thomas Ng (Department of Civil Engineering, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong)
Jingzhu Xie (Department of Civil Engineering, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong)

Construction Innovation

ISSN: 1471-4175

Article publication date: 18 April 2008

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to devise a simple but practical model to assist decision makers in evaluating the tariff stability of concession schemes.

Design/methodology/approach

To develop such a model necessitates the identification of parameters that could contribute to an increase or decline in investment return. With that a Monte‐Carlo‐based simulation model is devised to determine the probability that the tariff regime remains unchanged even when the identified risks do occur at the operational stage. Sensitivity analysis is performed to identify the most influential factors to investment return and tariff stability.

Findings

The results of the scenario indicate that the internal rate of return could be profoundly influenced by the risk factors which reaffirm the needs for a more comprehensive model for tariff stability evaluation.

Research limitations/implications

Through the simulation model, a tariff stability indicator is derived and when integrated with the results of sensitivity analysis this could generate a weighted indicator for alternative tariff regimes for use in decision support systems.

Practical implications

With the aid of simulation techniques, decision makers can predict the impact of a range of possible market conditions and/or levels of demand on the investment return and hence the stability of the tariff regime.

Originality/value

The model could be extended to other types of public‐private partnerships schemes upon suitable adjustment

Keywords

Citation

Ng, S.T. and Xie, J. (2008), "A simulation model for evaluating the tariff stability of concession‐based PPP proposals", Construction Innovation, Vol. 8 No. 2, pp. 106-119. https://doi.org/10.1108/14714170810867032

Publisher

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Emerald Group Publishing Limited

Copyright © 2008, Emerald Group Publishing Limited