Technology diffusion: forecasting with bibliometric analysis and Bass model

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to use bibliometric analysis to forecast RFID technology and uses the adoption of barcode scanner to model the RFID scanner adoption in the US retail market.

Design/methodology/approach

Forecasting emerging technologies and identifying the rate of diffusion of products based on these technologies is difficult because of lack of data. This paper uses techniques such as bibliometric analysis and Bass model based on analogous products.

Findings

The authors were able to come up with a good Bass model for the adoption of RFID scanners in the retail sector. And according to the Bass model it appears that it will take at least seven or eight years for the retailers to adopt to this new technology at their point‐of‐sale.

Originality/value

This paper attempts to use bibliometric analysis and Bass model for forecasting technologies and provides a new research discussion as results from these two are compared.

Citation

Daim, T. and Suntharasaj, P. (2009), "Technology diffusion: forecasting with bibliometric analysis and Bass model", Foresight, Vol. 11 No. 3, pp. 45-55. https://doi.org/10.1108/14636680910963936