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Article
Publication date: 22 February 2021

Imran Khan, Mustafa Afeef, Shahid Jan and Anjum Ihsan

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of heuristic biases, namely, availability bias and representativeness bias on investors’ investment decisions in the…

2277

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of heuristic biases, namely, availability bias and representativeness bias on investors’ investment decisions in the Pakistan stock exchange, as well as the moderating role of long-term orientation.

Design/methodology/approach

Using a structured questionnaire, a total of 374 responses have been collected from individual investors trading in PSX. The relationship was tested by applying the partial least square structural equation model using SmartPLS 3.2.2. Further, Henseler and Chin’s (2010) product indicator approach for moderation analysis was applied to the data set.

Findings

The results revealed that availability bias and representativeness bias have a significant and positive influence on the investment decisions of investors. Furthermore, a significant moderating effect of long term orientation on the effect of representativeness bias on investment decision is observed. This suggests that investors’ long term orientation weaken the effect of representativeness bias on investment decision. However, no significant moderating effect was observed for availability bias.

Originality/value

The paper provides novel insights on the role of heuristic-driven biases on the investment decisions of individual investors in the stock market. Particularly, it enhanced the understanding of behavioral aspects of investment decision-making in an emerging market.

Details

Qualitative Research in Financial Markets, vol. 13 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1755-4179

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 5 February 2018

Syed Zulfiqar Ali Shah, Maqsood Ahmad and Faisal Mahmood

This paper aims to clarify the mechanism by which heuristics influences the investment decisions of individual investors, actively trading on the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX)…

10304

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to clarify the mechanism by which heuristics influences the investment decisions of individual investors, actively trading on the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX), and the perceived efficiency of the market. Most studies focus on well-developed financial markets and very little is known about investors’ behaviour in less developed financial markets or emerging markets. The present study contributes to filling this gap in the literature.

Design/methodology/approach

Investors’ heuristic biases have been measured using a questionnaire, containing numerous items, including indicators of speculators, investment decisions and perceived market efficiency variables. The sample consists of 143 investors trading on the PSX. A convenient, purposively sampling technique was used for data collection. To examine the relationship between heuristic biases, investment decisions and perceived market efficiency, hypotheses were tested by using correlation and regression analysis.

Findings

The paper provides empirical insights into the relationship of heuristic biases, investment decisions and perceived market efficiency. The results suggest that heuristic biases (overconfidence, representativeness, availability and anchoring) have a markedly negative impact on investment decisions made by individual investors actively trading on the PSX and on perceived market efficiency.

Research limitations/implications

The primary limitation of the empirical review is the tiny size of the sample. A larger sample would have given more trustworthy results and could have empowered a more extensive scope of investigation.

Practical implications

The paper encourages investors to avoid relying on heuristics or their feelings when making investments. It provides awareness and understanding of heuristic biases in investment management, which could be very useful for decision makers and professionals in financial institutions, such as portfolio managers and traders in commercial banks, investment banks and mutual funds. This paper helps investors to select better investment tools and avoid repeating expensive errors, which occur due to heuristic biases. They can improve their performance by recognizing their biases and errors of judgment, to which we are all prone, resulting in a more efficient market. So, it is necessary to focus on a specific investment strategy to control “mental mistakes” by investors, due to heuristic biases.

Originality/value

The current study is the first of its kind, focusing on the link between heuristics, individual investment decisions and perceived market efficiency within the specific context of Pakistan.

Details

Qualitative Research in Financial Markets, vol. 10 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1755-4179

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 28 June 2022

Maqsood Ahmad

This article aims to systematically review the literature published in recognized journals focused on cognitive heuristic-driven biases and their effect on investment management…

2314

Abstract

Purpose

This article aims to systematically review the literature published in recognized journals focused on cognitive heuristic-driven biases and their effect on investment management activities and market efficiency. It also includes some of the research work on the origins and foundations of behavioral finance, and how this has grown substantially to become an established and particular subject of study in its own right. The study also aims to provide future direction to the researchers working in this field.

Design/methodology/approach

For doing research synthesis, a systematic literature review (SLR) approach was applied considering research studies published within the time period, i.e. 1970–2021. This study attempted to accomplish a critical review of 176 studies out of 256 studies identified, which were published in reputable journals to synthesize the existing literature in the behavioral finance domain-related explicitly to cognitive heuristic-driven biases and their effect on investment management activities and market efficiency as well as on the origins and foundations of behavioral finance.

Findings

This review reveals that investors often use cognitive heuristics to reduce the risk of losses in uncertain situations, but that leads to errors in judgment; as a result, investors make irrational decisions, which may cause the market to overreact or underreact – in both situations, the market becomes inefficient. Overall, the literature demonstrates that there is currently no consensus on the usefulness of cognitive heuristics in the context of investment management activities and market efficiency. Therefore, a lack of consensus about this topic suggests that further studies may bring relevant contributions to the literature. Based on the gaps analysis, three major categories of gaps, namely theoretical and methodological gaps, and contextual gaps, are found, where research is needed.

Practical implications

The skillful understanding and knowledge of the cognitive heuristic-driven biases will help the investors, financial institutions and policymakers to overcome the adverse effect of these behavioral biases in the stock market. This article provides a detailed explanation of cognitive heuristic-driven biases and their influence on investment management activities and market efficiency, which could be very useful for finance practitioners, such as an investor who plays at the stock exchange, a portfolio manager, a financial strategist/advisor in an investment firm, a financial planner, an investment banker, a trader/broker at the stock exchange or a financial analyst. But most importantly, the term also includes all those persons who manage corporate entities and are responsible for making their financial management strategies.

Originality/value

Currently, no recent study exists, which reviews and evaluates the empirical research on cognitive heuristic-driven biases displayed by investors. The current study is original in discussing the role of cognitive heuristic-driven biases in investment management activities and market efficiency as well as the history and foundations of behavioral finance by means of research synthesis. This paper is useful to researchers, academicians, policymakers and those working in the area of behavioral finance in understanding the role that cognitive heuristic plays in investment management activities and market efficiency.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. 19 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 11 November 2020

Maqsood Ahmad, Syed Zulfiqar Ali Shah and Yasar Abbass

This article aims to clarify the mechanism by which heuristic-driven biases influence the entrepreneurial strategic decision-making in an emerging economy.

2487

Abstract

Purpose

This article aims to clarify the mechanism by which heuristic-driven biases influence the entrepreneurial strategic decision-making in an emerging economy.

Design/methodology/approach

Entrepreneurs' heuristic-driven biases have been measured using a questionnaire, comprising numerous items, including indicators of entrepreneurial strategic decision-making. To examine the relationship between heuristic-driven biases and entrepreneurial strategic decision-making process, a 5-point Likert scale questionnaire has been used to collect data from the sample of 169 entrepreneurs who operate in small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). The collected data were analyzed using SPSS and Amos graphics software. Hypotheses were tested using structural equation modeling (SEM) technique.

Findings

The article provides empirical insights into the relationship between heuristic-driven biases and entrepreneurial strategic decision-making. The results suggest that heuristic-driven biases (anchoring and adjustment, representativeness, availability and overconfidence) have a markedly negative influence on the strategic decisions made by entrepreneurs in emerging markets. It means that heuristic-driven biases can impair the quality of the entrepreneurial strategic decision-making process.

Practical implications

The article encourages entrepreneurs to avoid relying on cognitive heuristics or their feelings when making strategic decisions. It provides awareness and understanding of heuristic-driven biases in entrepreneurial strategic decisions, which could be very useful for business actors such as entrepreneurs, managers and entire organizations. Understanding regarding the role of heuristic-driven biases in entrepreneurial strategic decisions may help entrepreneurs to improve the quality of their decision-making. They can improve the quality of their decision-making by recognizing their behavioral biases and errors of judgment, to which we are all prone, resulting in a more appropriate selection of entrepreneurial opportunities.

Originality/value

The current study is the first to focus on links between heuristic-driven bias and the entrepreneurial strategic decision-making in Pakistan—an emerging economy. This article enhanced the understanding of the role that heuristic-driven bias plays in the entrepreneurial strategic decisions and more importantly, it went some way toward enhancing understanding of behavioral aspects and their influence on entrepreneurial strategic decision-making in an emerging market. It also adds to the literature in the area of entrepreneurial management specifically the role of heuristics in entrepreneurial strategic decision-making; this field is in its initial stage, even in developed countries, while, in developing countries, little work has been done.

Details

Management Decision, vol. 59 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0025-1747

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 26 March 2019

Renu Isidore R. and Christie P.

The purpose of this paper is to test the relationship between the annual income earned by the investors and eight behavioural biases exhibited by the investors such as mental…

10324

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to test the relationship between the annual income earned by the investors and eight behavioural biases exhibited by the investors such as mental accounting, anchoring, gambler’s fallacy, availability, loss aversion, regret aversion, representativeness and overconfidence.

Design/methodology/approach

The relationship is derived based on a questionnaire survey conducted on 436 secondary equity investors residing in Chennai, India.

Findings

Analysis of variance test was performed on the normalised and non-normalised version of the biases divided in terms of the annual income earned by the investor. The test found that for the significant biases except the overconfidence bias, the investors with higher annual income were less prone to the biases when compared to investors with lower annual income. On the other hand, with respect to the overconfidence bias, the investors with higher annual income were prone to exhibit overconfidence bias when compared to the investors with lower annual income. Correlation analysis showed that the investors with high annual income were more likely to exhibit higher overconfidence bias but lower representativeness, loss aversion, availability and mental accounting biases.

Originality/value

A contribution in the financial and economic front which would benefit the financial advisors to now consider the income earned by the clients as an important factor while giving financial advice to the clients and while guiding them about the biases they are prone to exhibit.

Details

Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, vol. 24 no. 47
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2077-1886

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 March 2003

Philip A. Wickham

The representativeness heuristic generates a decision‐bias encouraging over‐estimation of the probability of low likelihood events when they are associated with strongly context…

6043

Abstract

The representativeness heuristic generates a decision‐bias encouraging over‐estimation of the probability of low likelihood events when they are associated with strongly context representative propositions. An experimental investigation into decision making by final year business undergraduates demonstrates that this heuristic operates and consistently affects subjects’ judgement of the probability of probe details about an entrepreneur in the representativeness‐generating context of the future success or failure of a proposed venture by that entrepreneur. The results suggest that the representativeness heuristic could hinder the quality of managerial decision making, especially decisions involving investment in new ventures. Evidence is generated in favour of a specifically cognitive source for this bias as opposed to a semantic mechanism proposed by some workers. This study adds to the growing literature on the representativeness bias in managerial decision making but is believed to be the first to consider it in an entrepreneurial context.

Details

Management Decision, vol. 41 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0025-1747

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 24 August 2020

Taofik Hidajat, Ina Primiana, Sulaeman Rahman and Erie Febrian

This paper aims to identify psychological factors that influence people to be involved in Ponzi and pyramid schemes.

1970

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to identify psychological factors that influence people to be involved in Ponzi and pyramid schemes.

Design/methodology/approach

A psychological approach to finance or behavioural finance is applied in this research because of the assumption that human beings are not always rational. The sample consisted of 98 investors in 11 cities in Indonesia who were or had invested in an investment program with a Ponzi or pyramid scheme. The snowball sampling technique was applied.

Findings

The conclusion is that optimism (emotional bias), confirmation bias, representativeness bias, framing bias and overconfidence (cognitive bias) positively influenced investment decisions related to Ponzi and pyramid schemes.

Originality/value

The novelty aspect of this research is the implementation of a behavioural finance perspective to answer and express the fascinating phenomenon of Ponzi and pyramid investment schemes.

Details

Journal of Financial Crime, vol. 28 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1359-0790

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 17 December 2018

H. Kent Baker, Satish Kumar, Nisha Goyal and Vidhu Gaur

The purpose of this paper is to examine how financial literacy and demographic variables (gender, age, income level, education, occupation, marital status and investment…

8011

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to examine how financial literacy and demographic variables (gender, age, income level, education, occupation, marital status and investment experience) related to behavioral biases.

Design/methodology/approach

The study uses one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA), factor analysis and multiple regression analysis to examine survey data from more than 500 individual investors in India.

Findings

The results reveal the presence of different behavioral biases including overconfidence and self-attribution, the disposition effect, anchoring bias, representativeness, mental accounting, emotional biases and herding among Indian investors. Hence, the findings support the view that individual investors do not always act rationally. The results also show that financial literacy has a negative association with the disposition effect and herding bias, a positive relation with mental accounting bias, but no significant relation with overconfidence and emotional biases. Age, occupation and investment experience are the most important demographic variables that relate to the behavioral biases of individual investors in the sample. Regarding gender, males are more overconfident than are females about their knowledge of the stock market.

Research limitations/implications

The study does not test for causality, only association between the variables. Thus, the findings in this study should not be interpreted as suggesting causality. The study may have implications for financial educators in promoting the financial awareness programs for individuals. Financial advisors can potentially become more effective by understanding their clients’ decision-making processes.

Originality/value

Despite an extensive literature on behavioral finance, limited academic research attempts to unravel the relation of how financial literacy and demographic variates relate to behavioral biases. This study contributes to this literature by trying to fill this gap.

Details

Managerial Finance, vol. 45 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0307-4358

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 June 2023

Maqsood Ahmad and Qiang Wu

This study aims to use a qualitative approach to explore and clarify the mechanism by which heuristic-driven biases influence the decisions and performance of individual investors…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to use a qualitative approach to explore and clarify the mechanism by which heuristic-driven biases influence the decisions and performance of individual investors actively trading on the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX). It also aims to identify how to overcome the negative effect of heuristic-driven biases, so that finance practitioners can avoid the expensive errors which they cause.

Design/methodology/approach

This study adopts an interpretative approach. Qualitative data was collected in semistructured interviews, in which the target population was asked open-ended questions. The sample consists of five brokers and/or investment strategists/advisors who maintain investors’ accounts or provide investment advice to investors on the PSX, who were selected on a convenient basis. The researchers analyzed the interview data thematically.

Findings

The results confirm that investors often use heuristics, causing several heuristic-driven biases when trading on the stock market, specifically, reliance on recognition-based heuristics, namely, alphabetical ordering of firm names, name memorability and name fluency, as well as cognitive heuristics, such as herding behavior, disposition effect, anchoring and adjustment, repetitiveness, overconfidence and availability biases. These lead investors to make suboptimal decisions relating to their investment management activities. Due to these heuristic-driven biases, investors trade excessively in the stock market, and their investment performance is adversely affected.

Originality/value

This study provides a practical framework to explore and clarify the mechanism by which heuristic-driven biases influence investment management activities. To the best of authors’ knowledge, the current study is the first to focus on links between heuristic-driven biases, investment decisions and performance using a qualitative approach. Furthermore, with the help of a qualitative approach, the investigators also highlight some factors causing an increased use of heuristic variables by investors and discuss practical approaches to overcoming the negative effects of heuristics factors, so that finance practitioners can avoid repeating the expensive errors which they cause, which also differentiates this study from others.

Details

Qualitative Research in Financial Markets, vol. 16 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1755-4179

Keywords

Content available
Article
Publication date: 19 March 2021

Nektarios Gavrilakis and Christos Floros

The purpose of this paper is to identify whether heuristic and herding biases influence portfolio construction and performance in Greece. The current research determines the…

2215

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to identify whether heuristic and herding biases influence portfolio construction and performance in Greece. The current research determines the situation among investors in Greece, a country with several economic problems for the last decade.

Design/methodology/approach

A survey has been conducted covering a group of active private investors. The relationship between private investors' behavior and portfolio construction and performance was tested using a multiple regression.

Findings

The authors find that heuristic variable affects private investor's portfolio construction and performance satisfaction level positively. A robustness test on a second group, consisting of professional investors, reveals that heuristic and herding biases affect investment behavior when constructing a portfolio.

Practical implications

The authors recommend investors to select professional's investment portfolio tools in constructing investment portfolios and avoid excessive errors, which occur due to heuristic. The awareness and understanding of heuristic and herding could be helpful for professionals and decision-makers in financial institutions by improving their performance resulting in more efficient markets.

Originality/value

The main contribution of this paper lies in the fact that it is the first study on two major behavioral dimensions that affect the investor's portfolio construction and performance in Greece. The rationale of the current research is that the results are helpful for investors in order to take rational, reliable and profitable decisions.

Details

Review of Behavioral Finance, vol. 14 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1940-5979

Keywords

1 – 10 of over 4000