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Article
Publication date: 10 July 2020

Ergin Akalpler

This study aims to research the effects of unemployment wages current account and consumer price index (CPI) on the real gross domestic product (RGDP), which, in the optimum

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to research the effects of unemployment wages current account and consumer price index (CPI) on the real gross domestic product (RGDP), which, in the optimum currency area (OCA) theory, supposes that countries with higher factor mobility can significantly profit from the currency area. However, in this study, it is shown that the considered optimum currency crisis (OCC) model is affected by mobility factors, as the defined theory has not been perfectly realised in the Eurozone.

Design/methodology/approach

In this study, Breusch–Pagan–Godfrey and Lagrange multiplier (LM) tests are used for supporting the survey for better estimation of the panel cointegration tests, where Pedroni's (1995, 1997) technique is used. The unit root tests are employed, of which the Phillip–Perron and augmented Dickey–Fuller tests (unit root test, Dickey, D. and W. Fuller, 1979) are considered.

Findings

It can be concluded that demand shocks will tend to be more asymmetric instead of being symmetric, even though they are in the customs union (CU). However, Polish workers in a given scenario may move to Germany, but because of the rigidity of the labour market and qualification differences between workers, the interregional integration of member countries is reduced, and this reduces the absorption of asymmetric shocks. In Germany, where strong employment protection and rigidity are observed in comparison to Poland, although there has been historical migration and economical collaboration, unfortunately, the integration of the two countries’ economies has not been realised.

Research limitations/implications

Quantitative research on fiscal union and the estimation of its effects is not possible because there is no practical experience of fiscal union throughout the European Union (EU). However, quantitative research is used for estimating the effects of OCA in the Eurozone. Quantitative investigation is particularly focused on the monetary union and single currency and its impact on growth rate. In this study, the ordinary least squares (OLS) method and panel cointegration test are employed for estimating the effects of the considered variables.

Practical implications

The Eurozone and the application of a single currency throughout the EU was a considerably difficult task. In addition, the adoption of a single currency was not easy for those member countries that fulfilled the “convergence criteria” (or “Maastricht criteria”) and who joined the Eurozone, because only adoption is not enough; maintenance of those criteria is also required. This study analysed the application of the Eurozone in the light of the OCA of Mundel's theory.

Social implications

The OCA is important for member countries’ economic relations. However, the application of a single currency is not easy and needs to be controlled and regulated to ensure best practises throughout the Eurozone. Monetary integration is not a simple process, and Eurozone countries’ financial difficulties affect each other’s markets’ indifferent aspects. Particularly in any market recession, demand shocks tend to have different effects. Furthermore, in comparison to the monetary union, the CU has a considerable impact on trade enlargement.

Originality/value

In this study, the effects of the independent variables “wages, unemployment, CPI and capital flow” on the dependent variable “RGDP” is considered, which, in the OCA theory, supposes that countries with higher factor mobility can significantly profit from the currency area. In application, it was turned into crisis because of inadequate monetary and fiscal application. In this paper OCA is questioned in the light of the Eurozone for bringing better understanding to these difficulties. The considered model and estimations are used for evaluating to create sustainable monetary integration for economic growth.

Details

Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, vol. 37 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1026-4116

Keywords

Abstract

Details

Functional Structure Inference
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-0-44453-061-5

Book part
Publication date: 23 October 2017

Sergio Rossi

This chapter argues that monetary integration must precede, rather than follow, monetary unification, in order to avoid the occurrence of structural and systemic crises. It…

Abstract

This chapter argues that monetary integration must precede, rather than follow, monetary unification, in order to avoid the occurrence of structural and systemic crises. It briefly overviews the relevant literature on european monetary union (EMU) with regard to the criteria to set up an optimum currency area (OCA) according to the mainstream view. It then points out that adopting the euro as single currency for a number of heterogeneous countries led inevitably to a number of major negative effects, so much so because of the counterproductive financial constraints induced by the Euro-area fiscal and monetary policies framework. Particularly, the lack of fiscal transfers between these countries and the dogmatic attitude of the European Central Bank (ECB) as regards its policy strategy and goal increase, rather than reducing, the unemployment rate, and the degree of financial instability across the euro area. In fact, a way out of the euro area exists without renouncing to the (long-run) benefits of monetary integration. It implies that countries whose population suffers most of “fiscal consolidation” introduce their national currencies again, limiting the use of the euro to their central banks only, in order for them to settle all international trade and financial-market transactions carried out by residents in these countries. This monetary–structural reform will be instrumental in increasing financial stability and employment levels across Europe, thereby inducing positive effects also for trade and public finance.

Details

Economic Imbalances and Institutional Changes to the Euro and the European Union
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78714-510-8

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 2 October 2020

Tamsir Cham

This paper aims to investigate whether the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is an optimum currency area in the wake of the global financial crisis and low oil prices using annual…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to investigate whether the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is an optimum currency area in the wake of the global financial crisis and low oil prices using annual data from 2000 to 2016.

Design/methodology/approach

It applies the European Monetary Union as a reference point and co-movement methodology on key variables such as gross domestic product, inflation, terms of trade and current account balance. The findings revealed that all countries meet the macroeconomic convergence criteria and there is greater co-movement of these variables in the GCC.

Findings

Furthermore, the degree of co-movements increases during the financial crisis and recent low oil prices, which signifies the synchronization of shocks. However, labor is less mobile in the region and current account balance co-movement is relatively weak, but with the endogeneity of a monetary union, these constraints will evaporate as the zone enters monetary unification. The paper recommends that for the GCC monetary union to happen and be sustainable, there needs to be political will. The paper also recommended for the zone to have a common identification card so that nationals can move and work freely within the GCC region.

Originality/value

The study defers from the others in the following: this paper considered shock synchronization and co-movement methodology, which has not been applied in the region to assess its feasibility as an OCA.

Details

International Journal of Islamic and Middle Eastern Finance and Management, vol. 13 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8394

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 1 February 2009

M. Dutta

Robert Mundell is the father of the concept of optimum currency area (Mundell, 1961) and he has since then taught us a great deal more about it (Mundell, 1970, 1999, 2003)…

Abstract

Robert Mundell is the father of the concept of optimum currency area (Mundell, 1961) and he has since then taught us a great deal more about it (Mundell, 1970, 1999, 2003). President Kennedy reminded his fellow countrymen that it is the strength of the US dollar, bolstered by the strength of the US economy, not the US military arsenal, which contributes to the international leadership of the USA. Saburo Okita sought to explain policy approaches in the framework of economic regional communities in the context of global economic cooperation, and thus responded to the question if we will have one world or several (Okita, 1989, 1994). Indeed, he pioneered the concept of multiple currency areas.

Details

The Asian Economy and Asian Money
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-84855-261-6

Article
Publication date: 1 October 2001

Mary Beth Stanek

Monetary unification within Europe appears to be on target. Eleven nations pegged their currency to the euro in 1999. The euro‐zone is experiencing varying levels of growth…

3180

Abstract

Monetary unification within Europe appears to be on target. Eleven nations pegged their currency to the euro in 1999. The euro‐zone is experiencing varying levels of growth related to GDP. Balancing policy for 11 nations will be difficult. The true test will take place when asymmetric shocks hit one or several of the nations and unemployment rises to unmanageable levels forcing the European Union and European Central Bank to make tough decisions. Cultural issues and national identities are ever present. Optimum currency areas and comparative advantage discussed. The paper is divided into four major sections – reasons for unification, benefits, issues and conclusion.

Details

European Business Review, vol. 13 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0955-534X

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 7 December 2011

Manoranjan Dutta

On January 1, 1999, the euro became the common currency of the 11 Member States of the European Union (EU) – Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Luxemburg…

Abstract

On January 1, 1999, the euro became the common currency of the 11 Member States of the European Union (EU) – Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Luxemburg, The Netherlands, Portugal, and Spain, to be joined by Greece in 2000. The 12 were joined by Slovenia on January 1, 2007, Malta and Cyprus on January 1, 2008, and Slovakia on January 1, 2009. Estonia was scheduled to be the 17th member of the Eurozone on January 1, 2011, and was admitted to the Eurozone membership in September 2010. Following Slovenia and Slovakia, Estonia is the third former Communist state to join the Euro regime. It is, however, the first former Soviet republic to earn this honor. The remaining East European countries, who were admitted to EU membership by the Treaty of Rome in 2004, will become members of the Eurozone after a process of scrutiny. Each must satisfy the terms of the Maastricht Treaty of 1992. Denmark, Sweden, and the United Kingdom, three of the original EU-15 countries, continue to be outside the Eurozone. However, Sweden and Denmark have limited exchange rate fluctuations with the euro. The United Kingdom has a different story. Its economic structure and its relatively small share of world GDP have become an issue. The declining share of the United Kingdom's pound sterling as an international reserve currency warrants much critical evaluation.

Details

The United States of Europe: European Union and the Euro Revolution, Revised Edition
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78052-314-9

Article
Publication date: 1 June 1999

Filippo Cesarano

This paper inquires into monetary standards, focusing on the characteristics of money instead of the exchange rate regime. The transition from commodity to fiat money, a major…

3003

Abstract

This paper inquires into monetary standards, focusing on the characteristics of money instead of the exchange rate regime. The transition from commodity to fiat money, a major break in monetary evolution, has led to international arrangements that represent an application of the competitive money supply model (section 1), which is consistent with various optimality criteria and has far‐reaching implications for the future development of the monetary system (section 2).

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 26 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 18 August 2006

Herbert Grubel

The paper discusses recent changes in conventional wisdom about the optimality of fixed and flexible exchange rates. It develops the important difference between traditional and…

Abstract

The paper discusses recent changes in conventional wisdom about the optimality of fixed and flexible exchange rates. It develops the important difference between traditional and hard currency fixing. The main part of the paper analyzes the traditional benefits and costs of fixed currencies, how they are changed by first modifications of and second fundamental challenges to the Keynesian paradigm. The last part reviews empirical finding that fixed currencies hard currency fixing leads to a higher economic growth.

Details

Regional Economic Integration
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-0-76231-296-2

Book part
Publication date: 10 April 2023

A. A. Obalade, T. Moodley, N. Ncama, N. Mkhize, M. Pillay and T. Singh

The establishment of a currency union is a topical issue in the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ). The subject of currency union formation needs to be reassessed in light of the…

Abstract

The establishment of a currency union is a topical issue in the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ). The subject of currency union formation needs to be reassessed in light of the recent efforts towards the economic integration of west African countries. This study employs the Markov Switching Model (MSM) to determine whether a currency union in WAMZ is feasible. The study analyzes the regime switching behavior in WAMZ countries’ foreign exchange markets before and after the formation of the union. The contribution of this study is two-fold. First, the study accounts for the success or otherwise of the latest efforts to integrate the fiscal and monetary strategies in the zone. Secondly, the study contributes to the literature on the currency union literature in WAMZ by using Markov Switching Model (MSM) to generate novel results. The results of the study revealed that prior to the WAMZ formation, the real exchange rates of member states were more divergent. In contrast, a growing but marginal, convergence was observed after the formation of the zone amongst four (Nigeria, Sierra Leone, Gambia, and Liberia) of the six countries. The authors conclude that while WAMZ is on course for establishing a currency union, their monetary authorities must work together, particularly with Ghana and Liberia, to synchronize their policy efforts, and policy makers must implement policies to strengthen harmonious trade interactions.

Details

Comparative Analysis of Trade and Finance in Emerging Economies
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-80455-758-7

Keywords

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