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This study aims to examine whether and when real-time updated online search engine data such as the daily Baidu Index can be useful for improving the accuracy of tourism demand nowcasting once monthly official statistical data, including historical visitor arrival data and macroeconomic variables, become available.

This study is the first attempt to use the LASSO-MIDAS model proposed by Marsilli (2014) to field of the tourism demand forecasting to deal with the inconsistency in the frequency of data and the curse problem caused by the high dimensionality of search engine data.

The empirical results in the context of visitor arrivals in Hong Kong show that the application of a combination of daily Baidu Index data and monthly official statistical data produces more accurate nowcasting results when MIDAS-type models are used. The effectiveness of the LASSO-MIDAS model for tourism demand nowcasting indicates that such penalty-based MIDAS model is a useful option when using high-dimensional mixed-frequency data.

This study represents the first attempt to progressively compare whether there are any differences between using daily search engine data, monthly official statistical data and a combination of the aforementioned two types of data with different frequencies to nowcast tourism demand. This study also contributes to the tourism forecasting literature by presenting the first attempt to evaluate the applicability and effectiveness of the LASSO-MIDAS model in tourism demand nowcasting.

The Indian hospitality and tourism industries, major economic growth drivers and employment generators, have been greatly affected by the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. In FY 2020, the Indian tourism sector created 39 million jobs and contributed nearly US$194.3bn, or 6.8%, to India’s gross domestic product. The purpose of this study is to focus on ranking 22 listed hotels and 9 listed travel agencies in India based on their performance across 14 selected financial parameters in both the pre-COVID-19 year ending in March 2019 and the post-COVID-19 year ending in March 2021 to understand how the pandemic affected their businesses.

This research proposes to analyze the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the financial performance of 22 listed Indian hotels and 9 listed travel agencies evaluated over 14 financial parameters using a pipeline of two recently developed multicriteria decision-making techniques, method based on the removal effects of criteria (MEREC) and grey-based combined compromised solution (CoCoSo). First, the criteria weights are objectively determined using MEREC, and then the financial performances of the selected companies in both the hospitality and tourism industries are separately assessed using CoCoSo to get their overall performance score, based on which the companies are ranked in order of preference.

It was observed that Westlife Development, Lemon Tree Hotels, Indian Tourism Development Corporation, Royal Orchid and Country Club performed significantly poorer than their peers in the aftermath of the pandemic, whereas EIH, Advani Hotels and Resorts and TGB Banquets performed relatively better. Travel agencies Easy Trip and International Travel House performed particularly poorly because of the pandemic, but VMV Holidays performed relatively better in FY 2021.

The findings of the analysis will aid portfolio construction, corporate investment decisions, competition research, government policymaking and industrial analysis.

The proposed model is novel because it fills the research gap in the application of the integrated MEREC–CoCoSo method to study the impact of COVID-19 on the hospitality and tourism sectors in India.