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The purpose of this study is to examine the propagation of consumer and business confidence in the euro area with a particular focus on the global financial crisis (GFC), the European sovereign debt crisis (ESDC) and the COVID-19-induced Great Lockdown.

The authors apply Diebold and Yilmaz’s connectedness framework and the improved method based on the time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model.

The authors find that although the evolution of business confidence marked the GFC and the ESDC the role of consumer confidence (mainly in those countries with stricter containment and closure measures) increased in the COVID-19-induced crisis.

The findings are related to the different origins of the examined crisis periods, and the analysis of their interrelationship is a very relevant topic for future research.

This study is motivated in part by the fact that the unfolding 2022 bear market, which has reached the −25% drawdown, has not been preceded by the inverted 10Y-3 m spread or an inverted near-term forward spread.

The authors develop a three-factor probit model to predict/explain the deep stock market drawdowns, which the authors define as the drawdowns in excess of 20%.

The study results show that (1) the rising credit risk predicts a deep drawdown about a year in advance and (2) the monetary policy easing precedes an imminent drawdown below the 20% threshold.

This study three-factor probit model shows adaptability beyond the typical recessionary bear market and predicts/explains the liquidity-based selloffs, like the 2022 and possibly the 1987 deep drawdowns.

The purpose of this paper is to measure the systemic importance of industry in the world economic system under the system-wide event – the crisis of 2008-2009, by viewing this system as a weighted directed network of interconnected industries.

First, the authors investigate this crisis at three different levels based on network-related indicators: the “macro” global level, the “meso” country level, and the “micro” industry level. This investigation not only provides evidence for the systemic influence, that is, systemic risk, of the crisis, but also reveals the contagion mechanism of the crisis, which supports the stress testing. Second, the authors use a network-related business intelligence algorithm, the combined hyperlink-induced topic search (HITS) algorithm, to measure the contribution of a given individual industry to the overall risk of the economic system or, in other words, the systemic importance of the individual industry.

The HITS algorithm considers both the market information and the interconnectedness of the industries. Based on the stress testing, the performance of the combined HITS is compared with the purely market-based systemic risk measurement. The results show that the combined HITS outperforms the baseline in finding the top N systemically important industries.

The combined HITS algorithm provides a novel network-based perspective of systemic risk measurement.

Measuring the systemic importance based on the combined HITS algorithm can help managers and regulators design effective risk management policies. In this respect, the work initiates a research direction of studying the systemic risk in a business system based on a network-related business intelligence algorithm because the business system can be viewed as an interconnected network.