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Ecuador Mexican embassy raid is likely to backfire

Location:

ECUADOR

Glas has been convicted of corruption and was subject to a preventive arrest warrant when he sought political asylum at the embassy in December. The raid has been condemned by…

Ukrainian grain dispute is likely to drag on

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UKRAINE

A glut of Ukrainian agricultural products has driven down prices in neighbouring countries, prompting several governments to impose unilateral import bans. Protests by Polish…

Attacks on Russian refineries will cause oil shortages

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RUSSIA

The rising frequency of drone attacks is raising the risk of oil product shortages within Russia. Already Western sanctions on the supply of spare parts had made the maintenance…

Ukraine’s leadership reset will have a limited effect

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UKRAINE

As with the February reshuffle of the military command, these changes have been presented as part of an effort to ‘reset’ decision-making and improve governance. The president's…

Russia will remain a world-class submarine power

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RUSSIA

The navy has been more successful in modernising its submarine force than its surface fleet. Although it has fallen short of its original targets set in 2011, the new submarines…

Russian agri-food exports to China will grow briskly

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RUSSIA

Over the past two decades, Russia has reoriented its economic centre of gravity to Asia and China in particular. At first, trade growth was built around the sale of hydrocarbons…

Landslide win gives Putin six more years

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RUSSIA

Putin won 87% of the vote on 74% turnout, surpassing the 68% seen in 2018. Communist candidate Nikolai Kharitonov came second with just under 4%. Scattered opposition protests and…

Normal politics will not return to Ukraine soon

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UKRAINE

The invasion has consolidated public opinion around President Volodymyr Zelensky and increased the power of the security apparatus, helping kickstart some reforms but also…

F-16s will not solve Ukraine's problems immediately

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UKRAINE

Gaining access to US combat aircraft has been a long-standing goal for Kyiv. The decision to move forward with the transfer of the jets is a statement of strengthened US and…

War may not prevent elections in Ukraine

Location:

UKRAINE

Zelensky’s statement followed weeks of growing speculation that a wartime election might be held. However, it is still unclear if elections -- either parliamentary or…