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Expert briefing
Publication date: 17 January 2024
Expert Briefings Powered by Oxford Analytica

Estimates of income rather than output, of household rather than firms' employment, and of real rather than nominal wages often diverge, but the gap has widened since the…

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DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-DB284606

ISSN: 2633-304X

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Expert briefing
Publication date: 20 November 2023
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Prospects for US politics in 2024

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PROSPECTS 2024

President Joe Biden turns 81 today. In a country where half the population is younger than 39, most voters would rather not see an electoral rematch between Biden and Donald…

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Expert briefing
Publication date: 21 September 2023
Expert Briefings Powered by Oxford Analytica

The Fed insists that subsequent moves will depend on economic developments, but its forecast implies that, although not imminent, another 25-basis-point (bp) increase will happen…

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DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-DB282113

ISSN: 2633-304X

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Expert briefing
Publication date: 30 November 2023
Expert Briefings Powered by Oxford Analytica

The Federal Reserve (Fed) has raised interest rates from zero in March 2022 to 5.25-5.5% and has reduced its bond holdings from nearly USD9tn to USD7.8tn. While the Inflation…

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DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-DB283712

ISSN: 2633-304X

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Executive summary
Publication date: 24 November 2022
Expert Briefings Powered by Oxford Analytica

UNITED STATES: Economic activity will slow in 2023

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DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-ES274258

ISSN: 2633-304X

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United States
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construction
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Expert briefing
Publication date: 2 August 2022
Expert Briefings Powered by Oxford Analytica

Worsening sentiment suggests that the US economy will come close to though not technically enter recession (according to conventional US criteria) in the second half of 2022 or…

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DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-DB271835

ISSN: 2633-304X

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Expert briefing
Publication date: 2 September 2022
Expert Briefings Powered by Oxford Analytica

The 2010s was the worst decade for productivity growth since the 1950s, capping living standards and the economy's growth potential. Productivity is the ratio of labour inputs to…

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DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-DB272465

ISSN: 2633-304X

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United States
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economy
productivity
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Executive summary
Publication date: 30 August 2022
Expert Briefings Powered by Oxford Analytica

UNITED STATES: Fed speeds up balance sheet shrinkage

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DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-ES272402

ISSN: 2633-304X

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Expert briefing
Publication date: 21 March 2023
Expert Briefings Powered by Oxford Analytica

Core personal consumption expenditure inflation is 4.7% year-on-year, above the 2.0% target. The economy is holding up, with the OECD now forecasting GDP growth of 1.5%, up from…

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DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-DB276878

ISSN: 2633-304X

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Expert briefing
Publication date: 28 September 2022
Expert Briefings Powered by Oxford Analytica

An embedded wage-price spiral took hold in the late 1970s; the price of breaking it was almost a decade of high unemployment. Today's situation more closely resembles 1946-48…

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DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-DB273002

ISSN: 2633-304X

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