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Expert briefing
Publication date: 17 January 2024
Expert Briefings Powered by Oxford Analytica

Estimates of income rather than output, of household rather than firms' employment, and of real rather than nominal wages often diverge, but the gap has widened since the…

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DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-DB284606

ISSN: 2633-304X

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Expert briefing
Publication date: 20 November 2023
Expert Briefings Powered by Oxford Analytica

Prospects for US politics in 2024

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PROSPECTS 2024

President Joe Biden turns 81 today. In a country where half the population is younger than 39, most voters would rather not see an electoral rematch between Biden and Donald…

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Expert briefing
Publication date: 5 October 2023
Expert Briefings Powered by Oxford Analytica

Adams wants to tell potential migrants in the region that New York is “at capacity”. Last week’s heavy flooding underscored the frailties of the city’s 19th-century…

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Expert briefing
Publication date: 12 June 2023
Expert Briefings Powered by Oxford Analytica

Prospects for the US economy to end-2023

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PROSPECTS H2 2023

Since labour market tightness is now the key source of inflationary pressures, slower economic activity will increase unemployment. Research by Ben Bernanke and Olivier Blanchard…

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DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-DB279716

ISSN: 2633-304X

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PROSPECTS H2 2023
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Expert briefing
Publication date: 18 August 2023
Expert Briefings Powered by Oxford Analytica

Despite fears of a recession, the US economy continues to add jobs and employers report difficulties attracting and retaining workers. Wage growth is decelerating fitfully…

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DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-DB281325

ISSN: 2633-304X

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Executive summary
Publication date: 30 August 2023
Expert Briefings Powered by Oxford Analytica

UNITED STATES: Job market trend in line with Fed aims

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DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-ES281589

ISSN: 2633-304X

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United States
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Expert briefing
Publication date: 29 July 2022
Expert Briefings Powered by Oxford Analytica

This meets one definition of recession: two quarter-on-quarter GDP declines. However, the official determination is more complex and includes other indicators. Although the…

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DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-DB271791

ISSN: 2633-304X

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United States
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EU
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Expert briefing
Publication date: 19 January 2023
Expert Briefings Powered by Oxford Analytica

The US economy faces a period of slow growth and possibly a short and shallow recession, but this is unlikely to cause a significant weakening of labour markets.

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DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-DB275398

ISSN: 2633-304X

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Expert briefing
Publication date: 2 August 2022
Expert Briefings Powered by Oxford Analytica

Worsening sentiment suggests that the US economy will come close to though not technically enter recession (according to conventional US criteria) in the second half of 2022 or…

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DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-DB271835

ISSN: 2633-304X

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International
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economy
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Expert briefing
Publication date: 21 March 2023
Expert Briefings Powered by Oxford Analytica

Core personal consumption expenditure inflation is 4.7% year-on-year, above the 2.0% target. The economy is holding up, with the OECD now forecasting GDP growth of 1.5%, up from…

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DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-DB276878

ISSN: 2633-304X

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