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Rabat’s maritime sector will help geopolitical aims

Location:

MOROCCO

Existing conditions facilitate this: the country's open economy is highly dependent on foreign trade, it enjoys access to Mediterranean and Atlantic routes and ongoing…

US foreign digital diplomacy will see limited success

Location:

US

The strategy lays out an ambitious agenda for promoting digital rights and an open internet, and underlines US fears that other countries, especially China, are gaining ground in…

Donors look divided over approaches to the Sahel

Location:

SAHEL

The conference raised approximately USD1bn for 2020, and USD725mn for 2021. This met the organisers’ target for the conference itself, but fell short of the USD2.4bn the UN says…

EU fiscal reform will be modest at best

Location:

EU

Member states will start to negotiate possible reform of the fiscal rules in October, aiming for agreement by March. The outcome will be vital for spending and tax policy across…

Somalia and Turkey may struggle to realise oil deal

Location:

SOMALIA/TURKEY

The deal builds on the recent ten-year agreement on maritime defence cooperation. Somalia is believed to have significant onshore and offshore oil and gas potential. However…

EU-UK FTA leaves open the prospect of future conflict

Location:

EU/UK

The agreement offers zero quotas and tariffs on most goods, but there is little coverage on services while trade flows face disruption from significant non-tariff barriers.

Gulf states: Western investment drive will accelerate

Location:

GULF STATES

This trend was sustained in 2023 with USD23bn worth of investments in US markets alone. However, Gulf investments are subject increasingly to greater Western scrutiny because of…

China's Latin America funding brings calculated risk

Location:

LATIN AMERICA/CHINA

Chinese engagement in Latin America.

China's push for restrictions on military AI will fail

Location:

CHINA

This extends its previous efforts to limit autonomous weapons to cover the whole range of AI. The specific role that AI might play in conflict remains speculative, as does the…

China data rules will exacerbate global fragmentation

Location:

CHINA

However, internal and external challenges to reconciling these two objectives are growing. How other jurisdictions respond to China’s regime will have great influence on prospects…