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Armenia and Azerbaijan will import more arms

Location:

ARMENIA/AZERBAIJAN

France announced in November that it would deliver armoured vehicles to Armenia, prompting protests from Azerbaijan. The news threatens the tentative negotiations taking place…

Kazakhstan will diversify security ties

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KAZAKHSTAN

With Russia focused on Ukraine, Kazakhstan has charted a path to reduce its military and security dependency on Moscow. This is apparent in Astana's changing attitudes towards…

Armenia's relations with Russia will worsen

Location:

ARMENIA

The rapid defeat of ethnic Armenian forces exposed the weakness of Russian security guarantees. Yerevan had already expressed dissatisfaction with Moscow's diminishing ability to…

Iran’s foreign policy will focus on non-Western states

Location:

IRAN

IRAN: Foreign policy will focus on non-Western states

Tunisia will seek new partners but not drop the old

Location:

TUNISIA

Tunisia is an important partner for the EU and particularly Italy on migration and security issues. Recent developments beg the question whether Saied seeks to supplement his…

Armenia will avoid severing ties with Russia

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ARMENIA

Relations with Moscow have become even more strained since the September 2023 fall of Nagorno-Karabakh, compounding the shock caused by Russia failing to protect Armenia from…

Russia will exploit tension but will not encourage war

Location:

RUSSIA

Russia maintains a delicate balance in the Middle East, preserving a close relationship with Shia-majority Iran and a security presence in neighbouring Syria while seeking…

Russia will use CIS partners to conclude more FTAs

Location:

CIS

Unprecedented Western sanctions have pushed Russia to seek new bilateral free trade agreements (FTAs). Moscow is moving fast to create a wide network of agreements with emerging…

Yemen's Huthis will signal resilience

Location:

YEMEN

This appears to be the first Huthi response to the January 12 US and UK strikes on northern Yemen. On January 13, US President Joe Biden said Washington had delivered a message…

The EU will encounter obstacles in the South Caucasus

Location:

CAUCASUS

This follows years of the region being regarded as of peripheral interest to Brussels. Nonetheless, relations have not always been smooth.