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Looks at the philosophy of valuation, explaining the distinction between “worth” and “price”. Attempts to explain traditional techniques of assessing price. Looks at the development of discounted cash flow and its applications in valuations and calculations of worth. Concludes that there must be more openness with clients about valuation risks and issues so that they can make informed judgements.

In the 1970s, yields on UK commercial investment property appear to have been influenced principally by the cost of long term capital and the rate of rental growth. Consequently, yields tended to respond to the economic cycle, falling in times of economic recovery and rising when the economy moved into recession. However, in the 1980s so far, yield trends appear anomalous by comparison. Yields failed to rise on the advent of the recession in 1980–81, despite a sharp rise in the cost of capital, yet rose in 1982 just when the economy began to emerge from recession, and have since continued to rise as economic recovery and rental growth have gathered pace. This paper seeks to explain recent movements in investment property yields and to reconcile these with trends in the 1970s. It concludes that the behaviour of yields in the 1980s can be explained by the dominance of institutional investors in the property market, and by their perception of the changing risk attributes of property (compared with alternative investments) which have resulted from changes taking place in the investment markets and the UK economy.

The global demand for agricultural commodities may more than double in the second half of the twenty-first century. It has been suggested that rapidly growing world needs in food and agriculture can be met by expanding the acreage or cultivation of existing farmland. Because available land for farming is limited, about 90% of future production growth is expected to result from yield growth, with only 10% realized at the cost of acreage expansion.

In this chapter, we analyze the multitude of social benefits of modern agriculture. We also expand the traditional analysis of the return to research methodology by explicitly including environmental and other benefits of crop yield growth.

A key result of our analysis is that the environmental benefits of productivity growth far exceed the direct economic benefits to consumers and producers from an expansion of production. Hence, restricting analysis solely to price and quantity effects seriously underestimates the social benefits of modern agriculture.

The environmental benefits of yield growth in modern agriculture far exceed the traditional measure of social welfare.

In Part One of this paper, the logical basis of the conventional approach was examined and found to be wanting. The contemporary approaches have a more logical basis but the application of technique has a serious flaw in the analysis stage. While the conventional techniques require no subjectivity at the analysis stage of the valuation process, the contemporary models require a subjective choice of an equated yield, prior to calculation of implied growth rate and capitalisation rate. This choice of equated yield must be made regardless of whether the comparable is rack rented or reversionary. In the use of comparables, both conventional and contemporary techniques do not have any serious flaws when the comparison is perfect. To be perfect the comparison must not only be similar in locational and physical characteristics, but it must also be identical in lease structure, that is to say it must have the same unexpired term and rent received to CRV ratio. Where the perfect comparison exists, investment valuation techniques are irrelevant: direct capital comparison can take over. The debate regarding the use of techniques for market valuation must therefore revolve around the use and manipulation of non perfect comparables and the second part of this paper investigates the objectivity and logic of the application of technique to the valuation of reversionary freehold investments.

In order to develop our understanding of valuation models and so extend this to encompass the important area of performance measurement and its interpretation, it is essential to have a framework which will enable such developments to take place. This paper presents a theoretical model based on a certainty equivalent approach which enables the market risk of individual properties and portfolios to be assessed on an expectations basis. The data requirements for using the model are not onerous and with simple extensions it can be adapted to cope with changes in risk that occur when variations in the lease structure are anticipated. Understanding the influence of systematic or market risk is essential if our understanding of valuation is to improve. Systematic risk is the single most important factor which determines the premium which should be allowed to compensate for risk. This aspect has been largely ignored in the property literature with the result that risk premium figures are frequently assumed to be constant across all sectors and properties. This paper derives a model which attempts to overcome some of these problems. Due to data limitations empirical tests of the model cannot be regarded as conclusive. However, those tests that have been carried out suggest that the model could be used for estimating the required rate of return of both sectors and individual properties. It also has considerable potential in estimating growth expectations for groups of properties and can thus be used in the decision‐making process. Much, however, remains to be done.

In the past three decades, remote sensing-based models for estimating crop yield have addressed critical problems of general food security, as the unavailability of grains such as rice creates serious worldwide food insecurity problems. The main purpose of this study was to compare the potential of time-series Landsat-8 and Sentinel-2 data to predict rice yield several weeks before harvest on a regional scale.

To this end, the sum of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI)-based models created the best agreement with actual yield data at the golden time window of six weeks before harvest when rice grains were in milky and mature growth stages. The application of nine other vegetation indicators was also investigated in the golden time window in comparison to NDVI.

The findings of this study demonstrate the viability of identifying locations with poor and superior performance in terms of production management approaches through a rapid and economical solution for early rice grain yield assessment. Results indicated that while some of those, such as enhanced vegetation index (EVI) and optimized soil adjusted vegetation index, were able to estimate rice yield with high accuracy, NDVI is still the best indicator to predict rice yield before harvest. However, experiments can be conducted in different regions in future studies to evaluate the generalizability of the approach.

To achieve this objective, the authors considered the following purposes: using Sentinel-2 time-series data, determining the appropriate growth stage for estimating rice yield and evaluating different vegetation indices for estimating rice yield.

The purpose of this study is to simulate the climate change impacts on winter wheat production and evaluate the possibilities of using various varieties and shifting planting date as two climate change adaptation strategies in Kerman Province, Iran.

Two types of global circulation model and three scenarios for three periods were used. Daily climatic parameters were generated by LARS-WG (Long Ashton Research Station-Weather Generator). The CERES-wheat model was used to simulate future winter wheat growth, development and production.

The results showed that CO₂ had no effect on the phenology of winter wheat, and the negative impact of temperature on the grain yield was higher than the positive effect of CO₂ enrichment. The length of the reproductive growth period of the winter wheat was significantly shortened as affected by the negative impacts of rise in temperature. The simulated results indicated that the grain yield of common (medium maturing) variety of winter wheat will decline, ranging from −0.27 to −18.71 per cent according to future climate changes. Adaptation strategies showed that the early maturing variety had a higher and more stable grain yield under climate change conditions than medium and delayed maturing varieties. Earlier planting date (20 October) increased wheat grain yield under future climatic conditions than common (November 5) planting date. In reverse, later planting (November 20) would accelerate harmful effects of climate change on wheat grain yield.

The results highlighted the potential of early maturing variety and early planting date as the appropriate agronomical approaches for mitigating harmful impacts of climate change on winter wheat production in arid regions.

It is important to question the suggestion that there is no distinction between inflation and growth. An illustration of the applications will show that the hybrid between the real value and equated yield approaches enables valuers to place the right ‘type’ of yield on differing types of income or capital value, ie high yields when rents are unable to be reviewed, low yields when rents are able to be reviewed continually and moderate yields when the income in partially proofed.

The purpose of this paper is to analyse the gap between government bonds (index-linked and long-dated) and real estate yields/capitalization rates over time for the UK, Australia and the USA. The global financial crisis was a sharp shock to real estate markets, and while interest rates and government bond yields fell in response around the world, real estate yields (cap rates) have risen.

The absolute yield gap levels and their variation over time in the different countries are compared and linked to the theoretical reasons for the yield gap and, in particular, a changing real estate risk premium. Within this context, it assesses whether there have been structural breaks in long-term relationships during booms and busts based on autoregressive conditionally heteroscedastic (ARCH) models. Finally, the paper provides further insights by constructing statistical models of index-linked and long-dated yield gaps.

The relationships between bond and property yields go through a traumatic time around the period of the global financial crisis. These changes are sufficiently strong to be statistically defined as “structural breaks” in the time series. The sudden switch in the yield gaps may have stimulated a greater appreciation of structural change in the property market.

The research focuses on the most transparent real estate markets in the world, but other countries with less developed markets may respond differently.

The practical implications relate to how to value real estate yields relative to interest rates.

This is the first paper that has compared international yield gaps over time and examined the role of the gap between index-linked government bonds and real estate yields.

This study seeks to determine an appropriate form of yield analysis as a means of improving the supply of low cost rental housing within Australia.

Rental returns are quantified on a disaggregated basis based on the amalgamation of three major government property databases.

Much of the information on returns in low cost rental housing is based on erroneous assumptions. More accurate reporting of returns would put in place the appropriate risk premium for investment in low cost rental housing.

The study adds value by allowing policy makers to better understand the nature of returns required to increase the level of investment in the low cost end of the private rental market.