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Article
Publication date: 4 April 2024

Priyanka Goyal and Pooja Soni

Given the dearth of thorough summaries in the literature, this systematic review and bibliometric analysis attempt to take a meticulous approach meant to present knowledge on the…

Abstract

Purpose

Given the dearth of thorough summaries in the literature, this systematic review and bibliometric analysis attempt to take a meticulous approach meant to present knowledge on the constantly developing subject of stock market volatility during crises. In outline, this study aims to map the extant literature available on stock market volatility during crisis periods.

Design/methodology/approach

The present study reviews 1,283 journal articles from the Scopus database published between 1994 and 2022, using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) 2020 flow diagram. Bibliometric analysis through software like R studio and VOSviewer has been performed, that is, annual publication trend analysis, journal analysis, citation analysis, author influence analysis, analysis of affiliations, analysis of countries and regions, keyword analysis, thematic mapping, co-occurrence analysis, bibliographic coupling, co-citation analysis, Bradford’s law and Lotka’s law, to map the existing literature and identify the gaps.

Findings

The literature on the effects of crises on volatility in financial markets has grown in recent years. It was discovered that volatility intensified during crises. This increased volatility can be linked to COVID-19 and the global financial crisis of 2008, as both had massive effects on the world economy. Moreover, we identify specific patterns and factors contributing to increased volatility, providing valuable insights for further research and decision-making.

Research limitations/implications

The present study is confined to the areas of economics, econometrics and finance, business, management and accounting and social sciences. Future studies could be conducted considering a broader perspective.

Originality/value

Most of the available literature has focused on the impact of some particular crises on the volatility of financial markets. The present study is not limited to some specific crises, and the suggested research directions will serve as a guide for future research.

Details

Qualitative Research in Financial Markets, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1755-4179

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 19 April 2024

Bong-Gyu Jang and Hyeng Keun Koo

We present an approach for pricing American put options with a regime-switching volatility. Our method reveals that the option price can be expressed as the sum of two components…

Abstract

We present an approach for pricing American put options with a regime-switching volatility. Our method reveals that the option price can be expressed as the sum of two components: the price of a European put option and the premium associated with the early exercise privilege. Our analysis demonstrates that, under these conditions, the perpetual put option consistently commands a higher price during periods of high volatility compared to those of low volatility. Moreover, we establish that the optimal exercise boundary is lower in high-volatility regimes than in low-volatility regimes. Additionally, we develop an analytical framework to describe American puts with an Erlang-distributed random-time horizon, which allows us to propose a numerical technique for approximating the value of American puts with finite expiry. We also show that a combined approach involving randomization and Richardson extrapolation can be a robust numerical algorithm for estimating American put prices with finite expiry.

Details

Journal of Derivatives and Quantitative Studies: 선물연구, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1229-988X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 17 April 2024

Prince Kumar Maurya, Rohit Bansal and Anand Kumar Mishra

This paper aims to investigate the dynamic volatility connectedness among 13 G20 countries by using the volatility indices.

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to investigate the dynamic volatility connectedness among 13 G20 countries by using the volatility indices.

Design/methodology/approach

The connectedness approach based on the time-varying parameter vector autoregression model has been used to investigate the linkage. The period of study is from 1 January 2014 to 20 April 2023.

Findings

This analysis revealed that volatility connectedness among the countries during COVID-19 and Russia–Ukraine conflict had increased significantly. Furthermore, analysis has indicated that investors had not anticipated the World Health Organization announcement of COVID-19 as a global pandemic. Contrarily, investors had anticipated the Russian invasion of Ukraine, evident in a significant rise in volatility before and after the invasion. In addition, the transmission of volatility is from developed to developing countries. Developed countries are NET volatility transmitters, whereas developing countries are NET volatility receivers. Finally, the ordinary least square regression result suggests that the volatility connectedness index is informative of stock market dynamics.

Originality/value

The connectedness approach has been widely used to estimate the dynamic connectedness among market indices, cryptocurrencies, sectoral indices, enegy commodities and metals. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, none of the previous studies have directly used the volatility indices to measure the volatility connectedness. Hence, this study is the first of its kind that has used volatility indices to measure the volatility connectedness among the countries.

Details

Studies in Economics and Finance, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1086-7376

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 26 January 2024

Opeoluwa Adeniyi Adeosun, Suhaib Anagreh, Mosab I. Tabash and Xuan Vinh Vo

This paper aims to examine the return and volatility transmission among economic policy uncertainty (EPU), geopolitical risk (GPR), their interaction (EPGR) and five tradable…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to examine the return and volatility transmission among economic policy uncertainty (EPU), geopolitical risk (GPR), their interaction (EPGR) and five tradable precious metals: gold, silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium.

Design/methodology/approach

Applying time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) frequency-based connectedness approach to a data set spanning from January 1997 to February 2023, the study analyzes return and volatility connectedness separately, providing insights into how the data, in return and volatility forms, differ across time and frequency.

Findings

The results of the return connectedness show that gold, palladium and silver are affected more by EPU in the short term, while all precious metals are influenced by GPR in the short term. EPGR exhibits strong contributions to the system due to its elevated levels of policy uncertainty and extreme global risks. Palladium shows the highest reaction to EPGR, while silver shows the lowest. Return spillovers are generally time-varying and spike during critical global events. The volatility connectedness is long-term driven, suggesting that uncertainty and risk factors influence market participants’ long-term expectations. Notable peaks in total connectedness occurred during the Global Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, with the latter being the highest.

Originality/value

Using the recently updated news-based uncertainty indicators, the study examines the time and frequency connectedness between key uncertainty measures and precious metals in their returns and volatility forms using the TVP-VAR frequency-based connectedness approach.

Details

Studies in Economics and Finance, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1086-7376

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 26 February 2024

Zaifeng Wang, Tiancai Xing and Xiao Wang

We aim to clarify the effect of economic uncertainty on Chinese stock market fluctuations. We extend the understanding of the asymmetric connectedness between economic uncertainty…

Abstract

Purpose

We aim to clarify the effect of economic uncertainty on Chinese stock market fluctuations. We extend the understanding of the asymmetric connectedness between economic uncertainty and stock market risk and provide different characteristics of spillovers from economic uncertainty to both upside and downside risk. Furthermore, we aim to provide the different impact patterns of stock market volatility following several exogenous shocks.

Design/methodology/approach

We construct a Chinese economic uncertainty index using a Factor-Augmented Variable Auto-Regressive Stochastic Volatility (FAVAR-SV) model for high-dimensional data. We then examine the asymmetric impact of realized volatility and economic uncertainty on the long-term volatility components of the stock market through the asymmetric Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity-Mixed Data Sampling (GARCH-MIDAS) model.

Findings

Negative news, including negative return-related volatility and higher economic uncertainty, has a greater impact on the long-term volatility components than positive news. During the financial crisis of 2008, economic uncertainty and realized volatility had a significant impact on long-term volatility components but did not constitute long-term volatility components during the 2015 A-share stock market crash and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic. The two-factor asymmetric GARCH-MIDAS model outperformed the other two models in terms of explanatory power, fitting ability and out-of-sample forecasting ability for the long-term volatility component.

Research limitations/implications

Many GARCH series models can also combine the GARCH series model with the MIDAS method, including but not limited to Exponential GARCH (EGARCH) and Threshold GARCH (TGARCH). These diverse models may exhibit distinct reactions to economic uncertainty. Consequently, further research should be undertaken to juxtapose alternative models for assessing the stock market response.

Practical implications

Our conclusions have important implications for stakeholders, including policymakers, market regulators and investors, to promote market stability. Understanding the asymmetric shock arising from economic uncertainty on volatility enables market participants to assess the potential repercussions of negative news, engage in timely and effective volatility prediction, implement risk management strategies and offer a reference for financial regulators to preemptively address and mitigate systemic financial risks.

Social implications

First, in the face of domestic and international uncertainties and challenges, policymakers must increase communication with the market and improve policy transparency to effectively guide market expectations. Second, stock market authorities should improve the basic regulatory system of the capital market and optimize investor structure. Third, investors should gradually shift to long-term value investment concepts and jointly promote market stability.

Originality/value

This study offers a novel perspective on incorporating a Chinese economic uncertainty index constructed by a high-dimensional FAVAR-SV model into the asymmetric GARCH-MIDAS model.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 25 December 2023

Himani Gupta

Investors aim for returns when investing in stocks, making return volatility a crucial concern. This study compares symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models to forecast volatility in…

Abstract

Purpose

Investors aim for returns when investing in stocks, making return volatility a crucial concern. This study compares symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models to forecast volatility in emerging nations like the G4 countries. Accurate volatility forecasting is vital for investors to make well-informed investment decisions, forming the core purpose of this study.

Design/methodology/approach

From January 1993 to May 2021, the study spans four periods, focusing on the global economic crisis of 2008, the Russian crisis of 2015 and the COVID-19 pandemic. Standard generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH), exponential GARCH (E-GARCH) and Glosten-Jagannathan-Runkle GARCH models were employed to analyse the data. Robustness was assessed using the Akaike information criterion, Schwarz information criterion and maximum log-likelihood criteria.

Findings

The study's findings show that the E-GARCH model is the best model for forecasting volatility in emerging nations. This is because the E-GARCH model is able to capture the asymmetric effects of positive and negative shocks on volatility.

Originality/value

This unique study compares symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models for forecasting volatility in emerging nations, a novel approach not explored in prior research. The insights gained can aid investors in constructing more effective risk-adjusted international portfolios, offering a better understanding of stock market volatility to inform strategic investment decisions.

Details

Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1026-4116

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 4 April 2024

Hsing-Hua Chang, Chen-Hsin Lai, Kuen-Liang Lin and Shih-Kuei Lin

Factor investment is booming in global asset management, especially environmental, social, and governance (ESG), dividend yield, and volatility factors. In this chapter, we use…

Abstract

Factor investment is booming in global asset management, especially environmental, social, and governance (ESG), dividend yield, and volatility factors. In this chapter, we use data from the US securities market from 2003 to 2019 to predict dividends and volatility factors through machine learning and historical data–based methods. After that, we utilize particle swarm optimization to construct the Markowitz portfolio with limits on the number of assets and weight restrictions. The empirical results show that that the prediction ability using XGBoost is superior to the historical factor investment method. Moreover, the investment performance of our portfolio with ESG, high-yield, and low-volatility factors outperforms baseline methods, especially the S&P 500 ETF.

Details

Advances in Pacific Basin Business, Economics and Finance
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-83753-865-2

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 8 January 2024

Deevarshan Naidoo, Peter Brian Denton Moores-Pitt and Joseph Olorunfemi Akande

Understanding which market to invest in for a well-diversified portfolio is fundamental in economies that are highly vulnerable to fluctuations in exchange rates. Extant…

Abstract

Purpose

Understanding which market to invest in for a well-diversified portfolio is fundamental in economies that are highly vulnerable to fluctuations in exchange rates. Extant literature that has considered phenomenon hardly juxtapose the markets. The purpose of this study is to examine the effects of exchange rate volatility on the Stock and Real Estate market of South Africa. The essence is to determine whether the fluctuations in the exchange rate influence the markets prices differently.

Design/methodology/approach

The Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity [GARCH (1.1)] model was used in establishing the effect of exchange rate volatility on both markets. This study used monthly South African data between 2000 and 2020.

Findings

The results of this study showed that increased exchange rate volatility increases stock market volatility but decreases real-estate market volatility, both of which revealed weak influences from the exchange rates volatility.

Practical implications

This study has implication for policy in using the exchange rate as a policy tool to attract foreign portfolio investment. The weak volatility transmission from the exchange rate market to the stock and real estate market indicates that there is prospect for foreign investors to diversify their investments in these two markets.

Originality/value

This study investigated which of the assets market, stock or housing market do better in volatile exchange rate conditions in South Africa.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 15 January 2024

Shalini Velappan

This study aims to investigate the co-volatility patterns between cryptocurrencies and conventional asset classes across global markets, encompassing 26 global indices ranging…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to investigate the co-volatility patterns between cryptocurrencies and conventional asset classes across global markets, encompassing 26 global indices ranging from equities, commodities, real estate, currencies and bonds.

Design/methodology/approach

It used a multivariate factor stochastic volatility model to capture the dynamic changes in covariance and volatility correlation, thus offering empirical insights into the co-volatility dynamics. Unlike conventional research on price or return transmission, this study directly models the time-varying covariance and volatility correlation.

Findings

The study uncovers pronounced co-volatility movements between cryptocurrencies and specific indices such as GSCI Energy, GSCI Commodity, Dow Jones 1 month forward and U.S. 10-year TIPS. Notably, these movements surpass those observed with precious metals, industrial metals and global equity indices across various regions. Interestingly, except for Japan, equity indices in the USA, Canada, Australia, France, Germany, India and China exhibit a co-volatility movement. These findings challenge the existing literature on cryptocurrencies and provide intriguing evidence regarding their co-volatility dynamics.

Originality

This study significantly contributes to applying asset pricing models in cryptocurrency markets by explicitly addressing price and volatility dynamics aspects. Using the stochastic volatility model, the research adding methodological contribution effectively captures cryptocurrency volatility's inherent fluctuations and time-varying nature. While previous literature has primarily focused on bitcoin and a few other cryptocurrencies, this study examines the stochastic volatility properties of a wide range of cryptocurrency indices. Furthermore, the study expands its scope by examining global asset markets, allowing for a comprehensive analysis considering the broader context in which cryptocurrencies operate. It bridges the gap between traditional asset pricing models and the unique characteristics of cryptocurrencies.

Details

Studies in Economics and Finance, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1086-7376

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 21 November 2023

Haobo Zou, Mansoora Ahmed, Syed Ali Raza and Rija Anwar

Monetary policy has major impacts on macroeconomic indicators of the country. Accordingly, uncertainty regarding monetary policy shifts can cause challenges and risks for…

Abstract

Purpose

Monetary policy has major impacts on macroeconomic indicators of the country. Accordingly, uncertainty regarding monetary policy shifts can cause challenges and risks for businesses, financial markets and investors. Thus, the purpose of this study is to investigate how real estate market volatility responds to monetary policy uncertainty.

Design/methodology/approach

The GARCH-MIDAS model is applied in this study to investigate the nexus between monetary policy uncertainty and real estate market volatility. This model was fundamentally instituted to accommodate low-frequency variables.

Findings

The results of this study reveal that increased monetary policy uncertainty highly affects the volatility in real estate market during the peak period of COVID-19 as compared to full sample period and COVID-19 recovery period; hence, a significant decline is evident in real estate market volatility during crisis.

Originality/value

This study is particularly focused on peak and recovery period of COVID-19 considering the geographical region of Greece, Japan and the USA. This study provides a complete perspective on the nexus between monetary policy uncertainty and real estate markets volatility in three distinct economic views.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

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