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Article
Publication date: 11 May 2023

Ghanshyam Pandey, Surbhi Bansal and Shruti Mohapatra

The purpose of this paper is to examine the market integration and direction of causality of wholesale and retail prices for the chickpea legume in major chickpea markets in India.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to examine the market integration and direction of causality of wholesale and retail prices for the chickpea legume in major chickpea markets in India.

Design/methodology/approach

In this paper, the authors employ the Johansen co-integration test, Granger causality test, vector autoregression (VAR), and vector error correction model (VECM) to examine the integration of markets. The authors use monthly wholesale and retail price data of the chickpea crop from select markets in India spanning January 2003–December 2020.

Findings

The results of this study strongly confirm the co-integration and interdependency of the selected chickpea markets in India. However, the speed of adjustment of prices in the wholesale market is weakest in Bikaner, followed by Daryapur and Narsinghpur; it is relatively moderate in Gulbarga. In contrast, the speed of adjustment is negative for Bhopal and Delhi, weak for Nasik, and moderate for retail market prices in Bangalore. The results of the causality test show that the Narsinghpur, Daryapur, and Gulbarga markets are the most influential, with bidirectional relations in the case of wholesale market prices. Meanwhile, the Bangalore market is the most connected and effective retail market among the selected retail markets. It has bidirectional price transmission with two other markets, i.e. Bhopal and Nasik.

Research limitations/implications

This paper calls for forthcoming studies to investigate the impact of external and internal factors, such as market infrastructure; government policy regarding self-reliant production; product physical characteristics; and rate of utilization indicating market integration. They should also focus on strengthening information technology for the regular flow of market information to help farmers increase their incomes.

Originality/value

Very few studies have explored market efficiency and direction of causality using both linear and nonlinear techniques for wholesale and retail prices of chickpea in India.

Details

Journal of Agribusiness in Developing and Emerging Economies, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2044-0839

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 26 July 2023

Vaibhav Puri, Gurleen Kaur, Jappanjyot Kaur Kalra and Kawal Gill

India’s efforts to achieve large-scale financial inclusion are challenged by growing concerns related to the stability and profitability of the overall banking system. Although a…

Abstract

Purpose

India’s efforts to achieve large-scale financial inclusion are challenged by growing concerns related to the stability and profitability of the overall banking system. Although a rising dependence on digital finance and the acceptability of wallet-based payments was also visible during the post-demonetisation era and the coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) pandemic, issues related to bank stability and profitability could be addressed through the extension of digital financial services (DFS), making the system more transparent and resilient to internal as well as external perturbations.

Design/methodology/approach

The study provides empirical evidence to support the bank digitalisation and extension of DFS to achieve financial inclusion. The impact of digital finance, macroeconomic aspects and microprudential factors (bank specific) on stability is examined for selected Indian banks using quarterly observations spanning 2011Q1–2020Q4. The relationship between banking stability (measured through z-score and Sharpe ratio) is established with digitalisation factors using the instrumental variable regression two-stage least square -based panel regression. Robustness is tested using panel vector autoregression models.

Findings

Digital transactions including mobile banking, National Electronic Fund Transfer (NEFT) and Real Time Gross Settlement (RTGS) prove vital and significant in establishing stable banking activity in the Indian context across both public and private banking institutions. Access to broadband services provides a positive impetus in this direction. These issues could be addressed through the extension of DFS making the system more transparent and resilient to internal as well as external perturbations. As an implication, the adoption of innovative means of transaction could empower the financially excluded sections of society.

Originality/value

The novelty of this study is to bring the discussion of digitalisation and bank stability (riskiness) in the Indian context to light. As the first of its kind, this study paves the way for providing an empirical justification for promoting and achieving bank stability through digitalisation in the era of post-demonetisation and Covid-19.

Details

Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1026-4116

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 4 January 2022

Abdul-Razak Bawa Yussif, Stephen Taiwo Onifade, Ahmet Ay, Murat Canitez and Festus Victor Bekun

The volatility of exchange rate has generally been sighted as a primary cause for various shocks and instability in international trade of Ghana as witnessed over the years and…

Abstract

Purpose

The volatility of exchange rate has generally been sighted as a primary cause for various shocks and instability in international trade of Ghana as witnessed over the years and most especially in recent times. Hence, owing to the increasing trade levels between Ghana and Ghana's global trading partners, the study aims to investigate if the trade–exchange rate volatility nexus in Ghana supports the positive, negative or ambiguous hypotheses?

Design/methodology/approach

The study investigates the effects of Ghana's exchange rate volatility on international trade by designing import and export equations to estimate both short- and long-run specifications of the effect and employing the multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) with Baba, Engle, Kraft and Kroner (BEKK) specification developed by Engle and Kroner (1995) as a further check for the robustness of the findings. Monthly data between 1993 and 2017 on the real effective exchange rates of Ghana's trade with 143 trading partners were taken as the series for modeling the volatility using GARCH andexponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (EGARCH) models.

Findings

The empirical results show that the volatility of exchange rate negatively impact export performances in the Ghanian economy. On the other hand, there was no sufficient evidence to support the observed positive effect of exchange rate volatility on imports, as the effects were only significant at 10% level in the long run. Thus, it is concluded that the finding cannot confirm a relationship between volatility and import. Thus, the results present differences in the direction of the effect of exchange rate volatility on imports and exports in the context of the Ghanaian economy.

Research limitations/implications

Considering the fragility of the Ghanaian economy and Ghana's macro-economic indicators, the study points at the crucial need for more integration of well-informed trade policies within the country's macro-economic policy framework to contain the impacts of exchange rate volatility on trade performances.

Practical implications

The study contributes to literature by scope and method. More specifically, empirical studies have failed or provided little evidence uniquely on the Ghanaian economy's reaction to exchange rate volatility on the country's imports and exports. Additionally, most of the existing empirical studies measure exchange rate volatility using the standard deviation of the moving averages of the logarithmic transformation of exchange rates. This method is criticized because the method is unsuccessful in capturing the effects of potential booms and bursts of the exchange rate. The authors' study circumvents for these highlighted pitfalls.

Social implications

The study contributes to literature by scope and method. More specifically, empirical studies have failed or provided little evidence uniquely on the Ghanaian economy's reaction to exchange rate volatility on the country's imports and exports. Thus, the study chat a course for socio-economic dynamic of Ghanaian economy.

Originality/value

The study contributes to literature by its scope and method, as extant empirical studies have provided little evidence specifically on the Ghanaian economy's reaction to exchange rate volatility. Additionally, most of the existing empirical studies measure exchange rate volatility using the standard deviation of the moving averages of the logarithmic transformation of exchange rates. This method is criticized because of the method's inadequacies in capturing the effects of potential booms and bursts of the exchange rate. The study thereby essentially circumvents for these highlighted pitfalls.

Details

Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1026-4116

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 25 March 2024

Suzan Dsouza, Narinder Pal Singh and Johnson Ayobami Oliyide

This study analyses the impact of the Covid-19 on stock market performance of BRICS nations together. BRICS countries comprise almost 30% of the global GDP and around 50% of the…

Abstract

Purpose

This study analyses the impact of the Covid-19 on stock market performance of BRICS nations together. BRICS countries comprise almost 30% of the global GDP and around 50% of the world’s economic growth. As BRICS nations have gained the attraction as financial investment destinations, their financial markets have apparently been as potential opportunities for foreign portfolio investors. While there is extensive research on the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on individual economies and global financial markets, this paper is among the first to systematically investigate the dynamic connectedness of these emerging economies during the pandemic using the Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressions (TVP-VAR) approach.

Design/methodology/approach

We categorise our data into two distinct periods: the pre-Covid period spanning from January 1, 2018, to March 10, 2020, and the Covid crisis period extending from March 11, 2020, to June 4, 2021. To achieve our research objectives, we employ the Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressions (TVP-VAR) approach to assess dynamic connectedness.

Findings

Our findings reveal that among the BRICS nations, Brazil and South Africa serve as net transmitters of shocks, while China and India act as net receivers of shocks during the Covid crisis. However, the total connectedness index (TCI) has exhibited a notable increase throughout this crisis period. This paper makes several notable contributions to the academic literature by offering a unique focus on BRICS economies during the Covid-19 pandemic, providing practical insights for stakeholders, emphasising the importance of risk management and investment strategy, exploring diversification implications and introducing advanced methodology for analysing interconnected financial markets.

Research limitations/implications

The results have important implications for the investors, the hedge funds, portfolio managers and the policymakers in BRICS stock markets. The investors, investment houses, portfolio managers and policymakers can develop investment strategies and policies in the light of the findings of this study to cope up the future pandemic crisis.

Originality/value

This study is one of its kind that examines the dynamic connectedness of BRICS with recently developed TVP-VAR approach across pandemic crisis.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 7 March 2024

Karan Raj and Devashish Sharma

The purpose of this study is to construct a new index to assess the impact of an energy price shock on macroeconomic indicators of India. This paper also shows a comparative…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to construct a new index to assess the impact of an energy price shock on macroeconomic indicators of India. This paper also shows a comparative analysis of the constructed index along with pre-existing World Bank and International Monetary Fund indices on energy.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper uses three vector autoregressions and compute the long-term impact of the indices on the considered macroeconomic variables through impulse response functions.

Findings

This paper finds that an energy price shock has a detrimental impact on the macroeconomic indicators of India in the long run. This study also finds that the constructed index acts as a relatively more sensitive index in comparison to the International Monetary Fund and World Bank indices, which is bespoke to a developing economy case. This sensitivity is ascribed to dynamic weighting for a different basket of energy components, which are more pertinent to an Indian context.

Originality/value

The novelty of this research lies in the construction of a new index and its comparison to the existing ones. This study justifies why a developing economy would require a different measure of energy as opposed to the existing indices.

Details

International Journal of Energy Sector Management, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1750-6220

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 16 August 2022

Sakiru Adebola Solarin, Muhammed Sehid Gorus and Veli Yilanci

This study seeks to investigate role of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on clean energy stocks for the United States for the period 21 January 2020–16 August 2021.

Abstract

Purpose

This study seeks to investigate role of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on clean energy stocks for the United States for the period 21 January 2020–16 August 2021.

Design/methodology/approach

At the empirical stage, the Fourier-augmented vector autoregression approach has been used.

Findings

According to the empirical results, the response of the clean energy stocks to the feverish sentiment, lockdown stringency, oil volatility, dirty assets, and monetary policy dies out within a short period of time. In addition, the authors find that there is a unidirectional causality from the feverish sentiment index and the lockdown stringency index to the clean energy stock returns; and from the monetary policy to the clean energy stocks. At the same time, there is a bidirectional causality between the lockdown stringency index and the feverish sentiment index. The empirical findings can be helpful to both practitioners and policy-makers.

Originality/value

Among the COVID-19 variables used in this study is a new feverish sentiment index, which has been constructed using principal component analysis. The importance of the feverish sentiment index is that it allows us to examine the impact of the aggregate level of fear in the economy on clean energy stocks.

Details

International Journal of Managerial Finance, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1743-9132

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 19 April 2024

Oguzhan Ozcelebi, Jose Perez-Montiel and Carles Manera

Might the impact of the financial stress on exchange markets be asymmetric and exposed to regime changes? Departing from the existing literature, highlighting that the domestic…

Abstract

Purpose

Might the impact of the financial stress on exchange markets be asymmetric and exposed to regime changes? Departing from the existing literature, highlighting that the domestic and foreign financial stress in terms of money market have substantial effects on exchange market, this paper aims to investigate the impacts of the bond yield spreads of three emerging countries (Mexico, Russia, and South Korea) on their exchange market pressure indices using monthly observations for the period 2010:01–2019:12. Additionally, the paper analyses the impact of bond yield spread of the US on the exchange market pressure indices of the three mentioned emerging countries. The authors hypothesized whether the negative and positive changes in the bond yield spreads have varying effects on exchange market pressure indices.

Design/methodology/approach

To address the research question, we measure the bond yield spread of the selected countries by using the interest rate spread between 10-year and 3-month treasury bills. At the same time, the exchange market pressure index is proxied by the index introduced by Desai et al. (2017). We base the empirical analysis on nonlinear vector autoregression (VAR) models and an asymmetric quantile-based approach.

Findings

The results of the impulse response functions indicate that increases/decreases in the bond yield spreads of Mexico, Russia and South Korea raise/lower their exchange market pressure, and the effects of shocks in the bond yield spreads of the US also lead to depreciation/appreciation pressures in the local currencies of the emerging countries. The quantile connectedness analysis, which allows for the role of regimes, reveals that the weights of the domestic and foreign bond yield spread in explaining variations of exchange market pressure indices are higher when exchange market pressure indices are not in a normal regime, indicating the role of extreme development conditions in the exchange market. The quantile regression model underlines that an increase in the domestic bond yield spread leads to a rise in its exchange market pressure index during all exchange market pressure periods in Mexico, and the relevant effects are valid during periods of high exchange market pressure in Russia. Our results also show that Russia differs from Mexico and South Korea in terms of the factors influencing the demand for domestic currency, and we have demonstrated the role of domestic macroeconomic and financial conditions in surpassing the effects of US financial stress. More specifically, the impacts of the domestic and foreign financial stress vary across regimes and are asymmetric.

Originality/value

This study enriches the literature on factors affecting the exchange market pressure of emerging countries. The results have significant economic implications for policymakers, indicating that the exchange market pressure index may trigger a financial crisis and economic recession.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 22 February 2024

Anam Ul Haq Ganie and Masroor Ahmad

The purpose of this study is to investigate the nonlinear effects of renewable energy (RE) consumption and economic growth on per capita CO2 emissions during the time span from…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to investigate the nonlinear effects of renewable energy (RE) consumption and economic growth on per capita CO2 emissions during the time span from 1980 to 2020.

Design/methodology/approach

The study uses the logistic smooth transition autoregression (STAR) model to decipher the nonlinear relationship between RE consumption, economic growth and CO2 emissions in the Indian economy.

Findings

The estimated results confirm a nonlinear relationship between India’s economic growth, RE consumption and CO2 emissions. The authors found that economic growth positively impacts CO2 emissions until it reaches a specific threshold of 1.81 (per capita growth). Beyond this point, further economic growth leads to a reduction in CO2 emissions. Similarly, RE consumption positively affects CO2 emissions until economic growth reaches the same threshold level, after which an increase in RE consumption negatively impacts CO2 emissions.

Research limitations/implications

The study suggests that India should optimize the balance between economic growth and RE consumption to mitigate CO2 emissions. Policymakers should prioritize the adoption of RE during the early stages of economic growth. As economic growth reaches the specific threshold of 1.81 per capita, the economy should shift to more sustainable and energy-efficient practices to limit the effect of further CO2 emissions on further economic growth.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study represents the first-ever endeavor to reexamine the nonlinear relationship between RE consumption, economic growth and CO2 emissions in India, using the STAR model.

Details

International Journal of Energy Sector Management, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1750-6220

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 14 December 2023

Florin Aliu, Vincenzo Asero, Alban Asllani and Jiří Kučera

Paper aims to investigate the interdependencies and spillover effects that the Visegrad (V4 hereafter) Equity Markets hold on each other. The V4 group stands for the political…

Abstract

Purpose

Paper aims to investigate the interdependencies and spillover effects that the Visegrad (V4 hereafter) Equity Markets hold on each other. The V4 group stands for the political alliance of four Central European countries: Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovakia.

Design/methodology/approach

The study uses Wavelet coherence, dynamic conditional correlation GARCH (1, 1) and unrestricted vector autoregression (VAR) methodologies. Daily data series (covering the period from January 2, 2006, to February 2, 2023) are analyzed to assess coherence, time-varying conditional correlation and shock transmission among the V4 Equity Markets.

Findings

Wavelet analysis reveals that the Slovak equity market does not maintain coherence with three other equity markets. The time-varying conditional correlation documents for the high interdependence during the COVID-19 outbreak of the four indexes. The VAR estimates reveal that shocks in the Warsaw equity market are easily transmitted in Prague and Budapest exchanges but not in Bratislava. The results show that the Slovak equity market tends to be isolated from the influence of other three V4 exchanges. This isolation is attributed to its size, limited volume and adoption of the euro in 2009. The study emphasizes the Slovak financial system’s gravitation toward the Eurozone after euro adoption.

Originality/value

Notably, the findings provide important signals for local and international investors as the results cover four significant international shocks. The global meltdown of 2008/09, the Greek debt crisis of 2010/11, the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war.

Details

Studies in Economics and Finance, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1086-7376

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 18 August 2023

Lindokuhle Talent Zungu and Lorraine Greyling

This study aims to test the validity of the Rajan theory in South Africa and other selected emerging markets (Chile, Peru and Brazil) during the period 1975–2019.

624

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to test the validity of the Rajan theory in South Africa and other selected emerging markets (Chile, Peru and Brazil) during the period 1975–2019.

Design/methodology/approach

In this study, the researchers used time-series data to estimate a Bayesian Vector Autoregression (BVAR) model with hierarchical priors. The BVAR technique has the advantage of being able to accommodate a wide cross-section of variables without running out of degrees of freedom. It is also able to deal with dense parameterization by imposing structure on model coefficients via prior information and optimal choice of the degree of formativeness.

Findings

The results for all countries except Peru confirmed the Rajan hypotheses, indicating that inequality contributes to high indebtedness, resulting in financial fragility. However, for Peru, this study finds it contradicts the theory. This study controlled for monetary policy shock and found the results differing country-specific.

Originality/value

The findings suggest that an escalating level of inequality leads to financial fragility, which implies that policymakers ought to be cautious of excessive inequality when endeavouring to contain the risk of financial fragility, by implementing sound structural reform policies that aim to attract investments consistent with job creation, development and growth in these countries. Policymakers should also be cautious when implementing policy tools (redistributive policies, a sound monetary policy), as they seem to increase the risk of excessive credit growth and financial fragility, and they need to treat income inequality as an important factor relevant to macroeconomic aggregates and financial fragility.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

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