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Analysis of relationship between energy and growth offers the sustainable energy pathway for a country’s sustainable economic development. This study aims to focus on the evaluation of the Pakistan’s energy system using long-run energy alternative planning (LEAP) modeling framework through different growth scenarios.

Principal component analysis has been adopted for indicators index formation. Study period of 1980 to 2030 is covered by forward and backward simulations in LEAP software.

The study reveals that current energy policy does not have the potential to lead the country toward a desired goal of economic sustainability.

In falling off scenario, negative growth rate (-5 per cent) assumption is also debatable; LEAP shows an error in the analysis and takes the last positive available value for any further analysis as a default. This case could have been simply omitted from results but for research contribution, the computations for this case are also reported.

Long-range energy alternative planning model has been applied to answer the corresponding question for simulation period of 1980 to 2030 to better compare the past trend and future expectations. Critical analysis of four selected scenarios (BAU, moderate, advanced and falling off) indicate that energy policy of Pakistan is poorly managed to maintain energy system’s effectiveness.

As far as statistical difference is concerned, early years have more fluctuation; however, from 2009, curve flattens for energy consumption and energy demand. The increasing demand of energy impacts the society and hence disturbs all sectors.

Policymakers have been so dragged off from the main route to sustainability, despite all odds there is a huge unexplored potential in the country for use to move in step with the world for a better tomorrow. The study educates the policymakers to comprehend the future energy scenarios and make rational decisions based on the study outcomes.

The purpose of the article is to study the recent tendencies of growth of Russia’s agro-industrial complex (AIC), determine the optimal scenario of its development, and develop recommendations in the sphere of state regulation for its practical implementation. While there are tendencies of growing production and increase in Russia’s export, against this background, there is a tendency of quicker increase of import of food – if it continues, positive balance of foreign trade of food products in 2018 will turn into negative balance in 2020–2024. Though efficiency of crop farming is peculiar for a tendency of quick growth, efficiency of animal breeding is stable, which does not allow overcoming the growing deficit of food in Russia, which grows under the influence of the tendency of wear of fixed funds and slow implementation of new fixed funds due to insufficient financing. Scenarios of mid-term (i.e., until 2024) growth of Russia’s AIC are compiled, of which the most optimal is scenario that requires technological advancements, due to which increase in the value of index of food security up to 85.00 points (27%) will be achieved and the set goals of growth and development of Russia’s AIC will be reached. For a successful optimal scenario of the growth of Russia’s AIC, we offer recommendations in the sphere of state regulation of its digital modernization: adoption of the national strategy of transition to AIC 4.0 within the program “Digital economy of the RF,” development of import substitution in the AIC with emphasis on B2B markets, preparation of the technological platform for transition to AIC 4.0, and sufficient financing for digital modernization of the AIC.

This chapter elaborates on the role of clusters and innovational networks in Russia and interprets that the future growth of Russia’s economy depends on the development of clusters and innovational networks. We substantiated that clusters and innovational networks possess considerable potential in the sphere of provision of sustainable growth of Russia’s economy. Today, this potential is not used due to unequal distribution of clusters and innovational networks on Russia’s vast territory and due to their being at the initial stage of development – despite their prolonged period of existence. However, even in the current conditions, clusters and innovational networks make a significant contribution to Russia’s GDP (15.58% in 2018). By 2024, by implementing our described optimal scenario of clusters and innovational networks development, it would be possible to expand Russia’s GDP by 15 times, which will allow increasing the country’s GDP by 2.5 times. This positive effect will be achieved due to the provision of balance and stability of economic growth, which will make it more sustainable. Clusters and innovational networks should become a basis for sustainable growth of Russia’s economy. We recommend a scenario of sustainable growth based on a more equal distribution of clusters and innovational networks across Russia and a quicker development of clusters and innovational networks via more extensive involvement of private businesses.

Climate change will have a significant impact on China’s potential agricultural production and change the distribution of the population in various regions of China, thus producing population migration. This paper aims to analyze China’s population migration in response to climate change and its socio-economic impact.

In this paper, the Potential Agriculture Production Index is introduced as an analytical tool with which to estimate the scale of the population migration induced by climate change. Also, this paper constructs a multi-regional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and analyzes the effect of change in the population distribution pattern on regional economies, regional disparity and resident welfare.

The key finding of this paper is that, as a result of changes in potential agricultural production induced by climate change, the Circum-Bohai-Sea region, the industrialized region and the industrializing region, which are the main destination regions of the migrating population, will face a severe labor shortage. In response to population migration, the economic growth rate of the immigrating population regions has accelerated. Correspondingly, the economic growth rate of the emigrating population regions has decreased. In addition, the larger the scale of population migration is, the larger the economic impact is. Migration increases inner-regional disparity and decreases inter-regional disparity. However, overall regional disparity is only somewhat decreased.

This paper introduces a Potential Agriculture Production Index to estimate the scale of the population migration and introduce a multi-regional CGE model to analyze the correlated social-economic impacts.

The analysis of the main stages of the Belarusian economy's development from 2000 to 2018 has been carried out, the main factors and limitations of economic growth considered. The known models of economic growth applied to the Belarusian economy are shown. It is grounded that the correct use of endogenous growth models based on production functions is hampered by the significant influence of exogenous factors on the Belarusian economy, and it is more preferable to use models based on the balance of payments under these conditions. The methodology for modeling the balanced economic growth based on Input–Output tables' data is proposed, the results of its use are shown. Three scenarios for the growth of the Belarusian economy until 2025 are analyzed: baseline, adverse, and target; the desired structural changes are identified for the implementation of the target scenario.

This study predicts the growth of Africa's international trade from 2011 to 2040 by accounting for the uncertainties in the continent.

This study applies a scenario planning method (SPM) to develop multiple future scenarios considering uncertainties inherent in African socio-economies related to the success or failure of economic and industrial policies (EIPs) and economic corridor development policies (ECDPs). Subsequently, based on these future scenarios, the growth of African international trade from 2011 to 2040 is predicted using the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model.

The predictions reveal that if the EIPs and the ECDPs are successfully implemented, Africa, as a whole, will experience a significant increase in trade, estimated at US$ 1,905 billion and US$ 1,599 billion for exports and imports, respectively, compared to the scenario in which they fail. However, the effects vary greatly by country or region and industrial sector. The results also show that African intra-regional trade is rapidly expanding and is the second-largest after trade with Europe followed by other continents.

SPM, which allows us to reflect the uncertainties affecting African international trade prediction, is applied to build the future scenarios. The study comprehensively predicts African future international trade by setting a wide range of exogenous variables and parameters (input conditions for the GTAP model) related to EIPs and ECDPs.

The purpose of the work consists in studying social integration as a factor of economic growth. The authors focus on experience and perspectives of developing countries, as they show the highest rate of economic growth and have high potential of its acceleration.

The authors determine the interconnection between the processes of social integration in the four distinguished manifestations with the help of regression analysis and determine the level of homogeneity of data selections for each studied indicator with the help of variation analysis. Scenario analysis of future perspectives of the change of economic growth depending on the influence of the factor of social integration in the unity of its distinguished types is performed. Monte Carlo method is used for forecasting of change of the values of indicators of social integration.

It is substantiated that social integration is an important factor of economic growth. At the same time, the influence of this factor on economic growth of developing countries is ambiguous. Due to the offered proprietary classification of social integration according to the criterion of involved subjects, it is possible to establish that such types of social integration as integration of social groups, integration of business and society and integration of state and society have a positive influence. However, individual's integration into society has a negative influence.

The research contributes to development of economics by substantiating the significance of the social integration factor for economic growth and specifies the logic of management of this factor, which should be flexible. The perspectives of developing countries in acceleration of the rate of economic growth based on managing the factor of social integration are rather wide and envisage the increase of society's inclusion and the level of consumer consciousness and more active involvement of population into state management in the digital economy.

The purpose of this paper is to examine knowledge intensive business services, or KIBS for short. KIBS are one of the fastest growing areas of the European economy, and are increasingly important contributors to the performance of the sectors who are their clients.

KIBS are distinguished from other services and knowledge‐intensive activities, and statistics on KIBS in the European Union are examined, highlighting key similarities and differences in their development across Member States

KIBS are continuing to grow at rapid rates, and are experiencing qualitative change. The growth is associated with outsourcing, the internationalisation of services, and the growth in demand for certain forms of knowledge. Many KIBS sectors are becoming more concentrated (though most KIBS sectors feature a higher share of small firms than does the economy as a whole). As KIBS supply a wider range of services, overlap and convergence between different KIBS sectors has grown. But as some KIBS become more involved with their major clients' strategies, it is possible that some services will become specialised, while others integrate their inputs for clients.

Scenario analysis is used to examine policy issues concerning KIBS. These are based on deskwork: group discussion would be a valuable complement to this approach.

A range of policy issues, responses to these issues, and the rationales and challenges that policies may confront are spelled out. The article calls for much more explicit consideration of KIBS in innovation and other policy areas.

KIBS remain poorly studied, and their future development has rarely been considered. The implications for innovation and other policies are examined more explicitly and in greater depth than in previous studies.

The purpose of this paper is to review the key issues surrounding foreign direct investment (FDI) in agriculture, and examine the potential impacts of FDI in African agriculture.

The dynamic Global Trade Analysis Project model (GDyn) is used to analyse the potential impacts of improvements in land productivity and FDI in Africa.

The results illustrate that combined efforts to improve land productivity and growth in FDI could potentially increase Africa’s share in global agricultural output and exports, particularly with respect to oil seeds, sugar, and cotton.

The authors employ a global economy-wide modelling framework to simulate the effects of growth in FDI in African agriculture.

Enhancing the resilience of cities and strengthening risk-informed decision-making are defined as key within the Global Agenda 2030. Implementing risk-informed decision-making also requires the consideration of scenarios of exposure and vulnerability. Therefore, the paper presents selected scenario approaches and illustrates how such vulnerability scenarios can look like for specific indicators and how they can inform decision-making, particularly in the context of urban planning.

The research study uses the example of heat stress in Ludwigsburg, Germany, and adopts participatory and quantitative forecasting methods to develop scenarios for human vulnerability and exposure to heat stress.

The paper indicates that considering changes in future vulnerability of people is important to provide an appropriate information base for enhancing urban resilience through risk-informed urban planning. This can help cities to define priority areas for future urban development and to consider the socio-economic and demographic composition in their strategies.

The value of the research study lies in implementing new qualitative and quantitative scenario approaches for human exposure and vulnerability to strengthen risk-informed decision-making.