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Importance sampling is a popular Monte Carlo method used in a variety of areas in econometrics. When the variance of the importance sampling estimator is infinite, the central limit theorem does not apply and estimates tend to be erratic even when the simulation size is large. The authors consider asymptotic trimming in such a setting. Specifically, the authors propose a bias-corrected tail-trimmed estimator such that it is consistent and has finite variance. The authors show that the proposed estimator is asymptotically normal, and has good finite-sample properties in a Monte Carlo study.

Health care insurance companies often conduct sample surveys of health plan members. Survey purposes include: consumer satisfaction with the plan and members’ health status, functional status, health literacy and/or health services utilization outside of the plan. Vendors or contractors typically conduct these surveys for insurers. Survey results may be used for plans’ accreditation, evaluation, quality improvement and/or marketing. This article describes typical sampling plans and data analysis strategies used in these surveys, showing how these methods may result in biased estimators of population parameters (e.g. percentage of plan members who are satisfied). Practical suggestions are given to improve these surveys: alternate sampling plans, increasing the response rate, component calculation for the survey response rate, weighted analyses, and adjustments for unit non-response. Since policy, regulation, accreditation, management and marketing decisions are based, in part, on results from these member surveys, these important and numerous surveys need to be of higher quality.

This paper develops a Bayesian real options model to determine the optimal amount of sampling information to acquire before project activation. The approach is then applied to evaluate parts manufacturing approval (PMA) licenses for an aerospace firm in the maintenance, repair, and overhaul industry. The model explicitly accounts for project and sampling uncertainty, estimated cash inflows, capital outlays, and sampling costs. Upper and lower thresholds for delay option inputs are identified for immediate project activation and indefinite delay scenarios. In general, it is shown that high sampling costs encourage and low sampling costs postpone project activation, the magnitude of which dependent upon sampling reliability, project uncertainty, and moneyness of the delay option.

We conduct an experiment to analyze the impact of a well-established psychological construct, need for cognition, in an audit-related decision context. By simulating a basic audit sampling task, we determine whether the desire to engage in a cognitive process influences decisions made during that task. Specifically, we investigate whether an individual's need for cognition influences the quantity of data collected, the revision of a predetermined sampling plan, and the time taken to make a decision. Additionally, we examine the impact of cost constraints during the decision-making process.

Contrary to results in previous studies, we find those with a higher need for cognition sought less data than those with a lower need for cognition to make an audit sampling decision. In addition, we find that the need for cognition had no relationship to sampling plan revisions or the time needed to make an audit sampling decision. Previous studies regarding the need for cognition did not utilize incremental costs for additional decision-making information. Potentially, these costs provided cognitive challenges that influenced decision outcomes.

Our paper discusses simulation-based Bayesian inference using information from previous draws to build the proposals. The aim is to produce samplers that are easy to implement, that explore the target distribution effectively, and that are computationally efficient and mix well.

Applied econometric analysis is often performed using data collected from large-scale surveys. These surveys use complex sampling plans in order to reduce costs and increase the estimation efficiency for subgroups of the population. These sampling plans result in unequal inclusion probabilities across units in the population. The purpose of this paper is to derive the asymptotic properties of a design-based nonparametric regression estimator under a combined inference framework. The nonparametric regression estimator considered is the local constant estimator. This work contributes to the literature in two ways. First, it derives the asymptotic properties for the multivariate mixed-data case, including the asymptotic normality of the estimator. Second, I use least squares cross-validation for selecting the bandwidths for both continuous and discrete variables. I run Monte Carlo simulations designed to assess the finite-sample performance of the design-based local constant estimator versus the traditional local constant estimator for three sampling methods, namely, simple random sampling, exogenous stratification and endogenous stratification. Simulation results show that the estimator is consistent and that efficiency gains can be achieved by weighting observations by the inverse of their inclusion probabilities if the sampling is endogenous.

Standard stratified sampling (SSS) is a popular non-random sampling scheme. Maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) is inconsistent if some sampled strata depend on the response variable Y (‘endogenous samples’) or if some Y-dependent strata are not sampled at all (‘truncated sample’ – a missing data problem). Various versions of MLE have appeared in the literature, and this paper reviews practical likelihood-based estimators for endogenous or truncated samples in SSS. Also a new estimator ‘Estimated-EX MLE’ is introduced using an extra random sample on X (not on Y) to estimate the distribution EX of X. As information on Y may be hard to get, this estimator's data demand is weaker than an extra random sample on Y in some other estimators. The estimator can greatly improve the efficiency of ‘Fixed-X MLE’ which conditions on X, even if the extra sample size is small. In fact, Estimated-EX MLE does not estimate the full FX as it needs only a sample average using the extra sample. Estimated-EX MLE can be almost as efficient as the ‘Known-FX MLE’. A small-scale simulation study is provided to illustrate these points.