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From the perspective of the macro‐economy and real estate sector interaction, this paper aims to examine the maturing prime retail real estate sector versus the developing suburban retail real estate sector.

This paper adopts a highly specific dynamic computable general equilibrium model under system dynamics programming to structure the resulting system complexity within the context of Singapore.

Ex post and ex ante model estimations find that the suburban retail real estate sector is on the whole more susceptible to gross domestic product (GDP) growth policy that affects both GDP expansion and retail rents in actual and expectation terms as well as returns.

The DCGE model ex ante estimations for the planned scenarios, under low or high GDP growth for the prime and suburban retail real estate sectors, enhances understanding of structural factors and dynamic interaction in the maturation phase of the prime retail real estate sector in Singapore.

In comparison, Singapore's suburban retail real estate sector is found to be in a developing phase.

There is limited local research on the underlying relationship between the economy and the retail real estate sector, although Singapore's retail sector and retail real estate sector form an integral part of sustainable economic expansion.

Market segmentation, the dividing of a market into distinct subsets of customers, is a conceptual approach that commercial real estate developers can use to identify unmet needs. By developing properties for which there is an unmet need instead of those that are already adequately supplied, the developer achieves a temporary monopoly. To accomplish this, the market area must be defined, an inventory of existing space must be made and the demand for particular types of space must be estimated. The office space market and the retail space market are used to illustrate the process of identifying the type and size of building that should be built as well as determining when it should be built.

The paper aims to form system dynamics modeling in introduced in conjunction with econometric analysis and planned scenario analysis which will uniquely structure the process whereby the ex ante capital values of the prime retail real estate sector.

The integrated system dynamics model investigates the structural factors affecting a unique expectation‐centered capital value (CV) formation of the prime retail real estate sector, through system dynamics modeling, econometric analysis , and the analysis of planned scenarios. This model extends beyond the usual lags and time line aspect of the price discovery process. The retail real estate sector is investigated within the Singapore context, as this sector changes dynamically and non‐linearly in relation to rental, cost and general demand expectations and to exogenous shocks like the Severe Advanced Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) outbreak. These macroeconomic factors are introduced to investigate their impact on retail space CVs through sensitivity analysis, during the simulation period of 20 quarters from the zero reference quarter (2Q2002).

The paper finds that simulation runs of the expectations‐centered system dynamics model are based on three scenarios. Sensitivity analysis is conducted for each scenario. Optimistic scenarios' CVs are lower than those of the likely scenario, owing to developers forming excessively high expectations that cannot be met by the actual rental levels. Pessimistic scenarios' CVs are highest. Based on bounded logic and the conditions for all scenarios, there are huge differences in expectations resulting in a large disparity in the endogenous CVs. Low actual rents are primarily due to poor informational efficiency, as the prime retail real estate sector is not transparent enough, and that many transactions are privately closed. Expectations cannot be met as the market information is not disseminated extensively through the agents and players. The scenarios clearly highlight the problem of informational non‐availability in the sector. The main policy implication is a need for a more transparent system of sharing rental and pricing information for the retail real estate sector, which is meaningful for real estate developers, investors and urban planners to sustain the retail real estate sector's viability.

This paper takes system dynamics modeling to the next level of incorporating econometric analysis, to estimate the sensitivity of retail rent to cost and the change in retail rent, for effectively structuring the dynamic process whereby the ex ante CVs of the prime retail sector in Singapore are formed and assessed, through a unique and rigorous expectations‐centered system dynamics model of rents, cost, retail stock, general demand and exogenous factors.

The retail property market is constantly adopting to the continuous demand of retailers and their consumers. This paper aims to investigate retail property market dynamics through spatial accessibility measures of the City of York street network. It explores how spatial accessibility metrics (SAM) explain retail market dynamics (RMD) through changes in the city’s retail rental values and stock.

Valuation office agency (VOA) data sets (aspatial) and ordnance survey map (spatial) data form the empirical foundation for this investigation. Changes in rental value and retail stock between 2010 and 2017 VOA data sets represent the RMD variables. While, the configured street network measures of Space Syntax, namely, global integration, local integration, global choice and normalised angular choice form the SAM variables. The relationship between these variables is analysed through geo-visualisation and statistical testing using GIS and SPSS tools.

The study reveals that there has been an overall negative changes of 15 and 22% in rental value and retail stock, respectively, even though some locations within the sampled city (York, North Yorkshire, England) indicated positive changes. The study further indicated that changes in retail rental value and stock have occurred within locations with good accessibility index. It also verifies that there are spatial and statistical relationship between variables and 22% of RMD variability was jointly accounted for by SAM.

This research is first to investigates changes in retail property market variables through spatial accessibility measures of space syntax. It contributes to the burgeoning research field of real estate and Space Syntax.

The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of using information and communication technology (ICT) on retail property in Malaysia. It also examines what listed property companies perceive in terms of the implications of using ICT in the retail property sector in Malaysia.

Data were collected from sample surveys completed by 79 property companies listed on the Bursa Malaysia (formerly known as the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange). An ICT retail impact matrix was then developed to assess the significance of ICT on retail property in Malaysia.

The findings of the study revealed that ICT would have only a minor impact on retail property in Malaysia and that there would still be a need for the traditional means of conducting a retail property business. It also found that the listed property companies were ready to implement ICT applications and that the demand for retail property would still increase in Malaysia in the future.

Only 66 percent of listed property companies in Malaysia (the respondents) participated in the study.

This paper seeks to look at the impact ICT has on retail property in Malaysia. For this purpose, an ICT retail impact matrix was developed to assess this impact. As such, this study will be used as a benchmark for future ICT studies relating to retail property and the real estate sector in Malaysia.

Presents the findings of the first comparative econometric investigation into the influence of demand side forces on retail rent determination in European cities. Examines five major retail centres ‐ Amsterdam, Brussels, Hamburg, London and Paris ‐ over the period 1980 to 1994. Estimates for each city a theory consistent model which tests influences of GDP, retail sales and consumer expenditure on changes in retail rents. Univariate and multivariate regressions show that the relative explanatory capabilities of these influences exhibit a notable degree of variation between the cities. A time series cross‐sectional analysis demonstrates that contemporaneous changes in GDP are the most important common determinant of retail rents across the cities and that the process of rent determination in Paris is influenced by different structural factors from the other cities examined.

Primarily based on Alonso’s bid-rent model, the purpose of this paper is to examine the dynamics of the Singapore’s overall retail rental market by adopting a vector error correction model (VECM) estimation.

This paper uses the proxy for the overall retail rental value, which is indicated by a combination of the shop rent index from 2004 to 2013 and the retail rent index (RRI) in 2014, maintained by the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA). The independent factors are the real gross domestic product (GDP), monthly earnings of individuals and vacancy rates (VR).

Such a behavioral model examines the dynamic structures that overshoot and/or diverge from equilibrium.

The variables LOGGDP and VR are co-integrated of order one, I(1), while variables LOGME and LOGSRI are co-integrated of order two, I(2), to enable them to be employed in the VECM model.

The VECM model shows a good fit that allows the error correction term (ecm) together with the economic, financial and rental variables to jointly explain about 79.2 percent of the variation in the overall RRI. With a positive CoinEq1 coefficient that is positive and statistically significant at 5 percent level, it would take a long time for the system to return to its equilibrium once it has been shocked. Another variable that shows significant explanatory relationships includes past rents (index points) in the second order lags [D(LOGSRI(−2))]. The variable [D(LOGGDP(−3))], with a significant t-statistic value at 2.916, also helps to explain the changes in the overall rents.

This paper highlights the importance of the first and third differences of the lagged macroeconomic variables of the monthly earnings of individuals is moderately significant. The VR in the first and second differences is significant in accounting for the variation in changes of overall retail rents with their t-statistics values being above 3.0. It is thus meaningful for policy makers to so enhance their in-depth understanding.

This paper fulfills an identified need to study how the results from the ex post forecasting estimates from the VECM for overall retail rents in Singapore can be enabled.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the factors that affect the retail rent of shopping centres in Wuhan, an important city in central China.

The study uses a data set of 68 shopping centres in urban Wuhan. A regression model is constructed to estimate the impact on retail rent of a composite range of variables that would capture the physical characteristics, spatial characteristics, potential attractiveness of shopping centres and market condition.

The empirical findings suggest the ceiling height, closeness to metro line station, being situated in commercial central area, vacancy rate and income have significant impact on rental level. Unexpected, the retail mix has a significant negative impact on rent. The impact of the more determining factors found in Western research – size, age, parking space and anchor tenant – is not supported in the Wuhan study.

While 68 shopping centres are included in the test, the sample size is relatively small. The comparatively short history of retail market in Wuhan would not allow to test the rent adjustment process.

This is the first paper to investigate retail rent determinants in a second-tier city in China. The results of the study give designers, developers and investors critical insights into the determinants of retail rent in an emerging market.

This paper aims to initially explore the effects of online retailing on corporate real estate strategies today, examining current trends and the approaches of leading edge retailers in this evolving marketplace. The UK has the greatest proportion of online sales worldwide.

Context is provided through existing literature, and the methodology considers specific case studies. Information from financial reports, websites and evidence directly from retailers is derived to examine selected sectoral responses (food shopping, fashion retailing and department stores) to online shopping. The research considers the interface between the virtual and physical retail landscapes.

The Internet is undeniably driving change, and large retailers have responded by embracing multi-channel sales strategies in which the adapted physical store remains a central element.

The case studies are arguably limited in their market assessment by examining only large retailers, but it is these retailers who occupy much of the real estate space in shopping centres. Data on Internet sales and retail space of individual retailers are not publicly available. This paper offers a qualitative introduction into ongoing research on the evolution of Internet retailing today.

For large retailers, a multi-channel corporate sales strategy is enhanced by physical stores that can act as showrooms and collection points and enhance consumer service. Multiple retailers have a competitive advantage in the form of store networks and a recognisable brand that they can exploit to capture the sales opportunities the Internet offers.

The paper is the first to collate and analyse corporate real estate strategic responses to online retailing.

During the past decade significant changes have been occurring in the US retail market. Among the principal changes are those in competition, consumers, technology and the economy. Changes in these areas are reflected in trends in retail practice. Reviews the underlying changes that have been occurring along with their corresponding retailing trends, which include micromarketing, globalization, new retail formats, quick response and ethnic retailing.