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1 – 10 of 250Soora Rasouli and Harry Timmermans
This chapter reviews models of decision-making and choice under conditions of certainty. It allows readers to position the contribution of the other chapters in this book in the…
Abstract
Purpose
This chapter reviews models of decision-making and choice under conditions of certainty. It allows readers to position the contribution of the other chapters in this book in the historical development of the topic area.
Theory
Bounded rationality is defined in terms of a strategy to simplify the decision-making process. Based on this definition, different models are reviewed. These models have assumed that individuals simplify the decision-making process by considering a subset of attributes, and/or a subset of choice alternatives and/or by disregarding small differences between attribute differences.
Findings
A body of empirical evidence has accumulated showing that under some circumstances the principle of bounded rationality better explains observed choices than the principle of utility maximization. Differences in predictive performance with utility-maximizing models are however small.
Originality and value
The chapter provides a detailed account of the different models, based on the principle of bounded rationality, that have been suggested over the years in travel behaviour analysis. The potential relevance of these models is articulated, model specifications are discussed and a selection of empirical evidence is presented. Aspects of an agenda of future research are identified.
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Stephane Hess and Caspar G. Chorus
This chapter proposes a new mixture model which allows for heterogeneity in sensitivities and decision rules across decision makers and attributes.
Abstract
Purpose
This chapter proposes a new mixture model which allows for heterogeneity in sensitivities and decision rules across decision makers and attributes.
Theory
A new mixture model is put forward in which the different latent classes make use of different decision rules, where the use of generalised random regret minimisation kernel allows for within class heterogeneity in the decision rules applied across attributes.
Findings
Our theoretical developments are supported by the findings of an empirical application using data from a typical stated choice survey.
Originality and value
Existing work has looked at heterogeneity in decision rules and sensitivities across respondents. Other work has focused on the possibility that different decision rules apply to different attributes. This chapter puts forward a model that combines these two directions of research and does so in a way that lets the optimal specification be driven by the data rather than being imposed by the analyst.
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Prior to e‐commerce, tourists could only purchase souvenirs at a destination. The goal of this research is to develop and test a theory to explain how adding a retail web site…
Abstract
Purpose
Prior to e‐commerce, tourists could only purchase souvenirs at a destination. The goal of this research is to develop and test a theory to explain how adding a retail web site affects tourists' decision‐making for souvenir purchases.
Design/methodology/approach
The researcher conducts two experiments using scenarios to simulate a souvenir purchase. The researcher manipulates item type and web site availability, and then measures purchase intent, attitudes toward the souvenir, and regret.
Findings
Purchase limitation increases initial purchase intent by increasing the souvenir's reminder value, regardless of item type. Non‐purchase regrets are greater than purchase regrets, which in turn increases purchase intent at a later time.
Research limitations
The stimuli are necklaces, and although the findings do not show gender effects, the stimuli could limit the generalizability to other souvenir types. The research tests hypotheses using scenarios and less‐experienced travelers. Future research should examine different types of souvenirs in a naturalistic setting.
Practical implications
Retailers should not mention web sites until after a tourist decides not to buy in‐store and should do so subtly.
Originality/value
This research contributes to souvenir research by identifying a purchase limitation, available in‐store only, as a new determinant of a souvenir's reminder value. The research also contributes to scarcity research by identifying reminder value as a new and qualitatively different type of valuation affected by scarcity. Lastly, the research extends the regret literature by reversing inaction inertia at a later purchase opportunity while maintaining a regret minimization goal.
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Standard market risk optimization tools, based on assumptions of normality, are ineffective for evaluating credit risk. In this article, the authors develop three scenario…
Abstract
Standard market risk optimization tools, based on assumptions of normality, are ineffective for evaluating credit risk. In this article, the authors develop three scenario optimization models for portfolio credit risk. They first create the trading risk profile and find the best hedge position for a single asset or obligor. The second model adjusts all positions simultaneously to minimize the regret of the portfolio subject to general linear restrictions. Finally, a credit risk‐return efficient frontier is constructed using parametric programming. While scenario optimization of quantile‐based credit risk measures leads to problems that are not generally tractable, regret is a relevant and tractable measure that can be optimized using linear programming. The three models are applied to optimizing the risk‐return profile of a portfolio of emerging market bonds.
This study aims to investigate the effects and implications of overconfidence in a competitive game involving multiple newsvendors. This study explores how overconfidence…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to investigate the effects and implications of overconfidence in a competitive game involving multiple newsvendors. This study explores how overconfidence influences system coordination, optimal stocking strategies and competition among newsvendors in the context of the well-known newsvendor stocking problem.
Design/methodology/approach
The study applies robust optimization theory and the absolute regret minimization criterion to analyze the competitive game of overconfident newsvendors. This study considers the asymmetric information held by newsvendors regarding market demand and obtains a closed-form solution for the competing game. The effects of overconfidence on system coordination and optimal stocking strategies are examined.
Findings
The results of the study indicate that overconfidence can act as a positive force in reducing the effects of overstocking caused by competition and asymmetric information among newsvendors. The analysis reveals that there exists an optimal level of overconfidence that coordinates the ordering system of multiple overconfident newsvendors, leading to first-best outcomes under certain conditions. Additionally, numerical examples confirm the obtained results. Furthermore, considering newsvendors' expected profit, the study finds that a higher degree of overconfidence does not necessarily result in lower actual expected profit.
Research limitations/implications
Despite the significant contributions of this study to theoretical and managerial insights, this study does have certain limitations. First, in the establishment of the belief demand function, the substitution ratio, which quantifies the transfer, is assumed to be an exogenous variable. However, in reality, this is often influenced by factors such as the price of goods and the distance between stores. Therefore, one direction worth studying in the future is to explore the uncertainty associated with the demand substitution ratio and integrate that as an endogenous variable into the optimization model. Second, this study does not address the type of product and solely focuses on quantitatively analyzing the effect of salvage value on the optimal stocking strategy. Future studies can explore the effect of degree of perishability and selling period of the product on the stocking. Third, the focus of uncertainty in this study revolves around market demand, and the implications of this uncertainty are significant. A recent study (Rahbari et al., 2023) addressed an innovative robust optimization problem related to canned foods during pandemic crises. The recent study's findings highlighted the effectiveness of expanding canned food exports to neighboring countries with economic justification as the best strategy for companies amidst the disruptions caused by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Incorporating the issue of disruptions into the authors' research would be interesting and challenging.
Practical implications
From a managerial perspective, the authors' study provides a research paradigm for game-theoretic inventory problems in scenarios where the market demand distribution is unknown. While most inventory problems are analyzed and solved based on expectation-based optimization criteria, which rely on an accurate distribution of market demand, obtaining this information in practice can often be challenging or expensive for decision-makers. Consequently, a discrepancy arises between real-world observations and theoretical identifications. This study aimed to complement previous research and address the inconsistency between observations and theoretical identification.
Social implications
The authors' research contributes to the existing understanding of overconfidence and assists individuals in making appropriate stocking strategies based on the individuals' level of overconfidence. Diverging significantly from the traditional view of overconfidence as a negative bias, the authors' results show the view's potential positive impact within a competitive environment, resulting in greater actual expected profits for newsvendors.
Originality/value
This study contributes to the existing literature by examining the effects of overconfidence in a competitive game of newsvendors. This study extends the analysis of the well-known newsvendor stocking problem by incorporating overconfidence and considering the implications for system coordination and competition. The application of robust optimization theory and the absolute regret minimization criterion provides a novel approach to studying overconfidence in this context.
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This paper reviews the current literature on theoretical and methodological issues in discrete choice experiments, which have been widely used in non-market value analysis, such…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper reviews the current literature on theoretical and methodological issues in discrete choice experiments, which have been widely used in non-market value analysis, such as elicitation of residents' attitudes toward recreation or biodiversity conservation of forests.
Design/methodology/approach
We review the literature, and attribute the possible biases in choice experiments to theoretical and empirical aspects. Particularly, we introduce regret minimization as an alternative to random utility theory and sheds light on incentive compatibility, status quo, attributes non-attendance, cognitive load, experimental design, survey methods, estimation strategies and other issues.
Findings
The practitioners should pay attention to many issues when carrying out choice experiments in order to avoid possible biases. Many alternatives in theoretical foundations, experimental designs, estimation strategies and even explanations should be taken into account in practice in order to obtain robust results.
Originality/value
The paper summarizes the recent developments in methodological and empirical issues of choice experiments and points out the pitfalls and future directions both theoretically and empirically.
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In many decision‐making problems under parameter uncertainty, the most popular stochastic approach is not used because of its serious drawbacks. The purpose of this paper is to…
Abstract
Purpose
In many decision‐making problems under parameter uncertainty, the most popular stochastic approach is not used because of its serious drawbacks. The purpose of this paper is to present another approach, which copes with the uncertainty of parameters. It uses a precise criterion evaluating a decision with respect to uncertain parameters. This precision by the maximum operator is performed on a term based on the criterion and called the relative regret. The approach is applied to the allocation problems in a complex of operations.
Design/methodology/approach
The resource allocation problems in a complex of operations of independent and dependent structures to minimize a total execution time of all operations are investigated. Then, the results are extended for the problem of a task allocation in the complex of independent operations. The case is considered when the parameters in the functional models of the operations are uncertain, and their values belong to the intervals of known bounds. The solution algorithms for the uncertain problems are based on known solution algorithms for the corresponding deterministic problems. The solution algorithms for the latter problems are outlined in the paper.
Findings
The main contribution of the paper consists in presenting the property that it is possible for the uncertain problems considered to replace the solution of the uncertain allocation problems by solving a number of corresponding deterministic problems.
Research limitations/implications
The useful and interesting property of the solution algorithm for the allocation problems, in general, cannot be applied to the other decision‐making problems under uncertainty. As an example of such a problem, a simple routing‐scheduling problem is presented for which, however, a number of possible parameter scenarios can be substantially limited.
Practical implications
The allocation problems addressed in the paper have a variety of applications in computer systems and in manufacturing systems. Moreover, a lack of crisp values for the parameters in models of individual operations is rather common.
Originality/value
The paper extends previous results for the allocation problems in a complex of operations.
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Nian Zhang, Shuo Zheng, Lingyuan Tian and Guiwu Wei
In the supply chain disruption risk, the issue of supplier evaluation and selection is solved by an extended VIKOR method based on regret theory.
Abstract
Purpose
In the supply chain disruption risk, the issue of supplier evaluation and selection is solved by an extended VIKOR method based on regret theory.
Design/methodology/approach
Considering the influence of irrational emotions of decision makers, an evaluation model is designed by the regret theory and VIKOR method, which makes the decision-making process closer to reality.
Findings
The paper has some innovations in the evaluation index system and evaluation model construction. The method has good stability under the risk of supply chain interruption.
Originality/value
The mixed evaluation information is used to describe the attributes, and the evaluation index system is constructed by the combined method of the social network analysis method and the literature research method to ensure the accuracy and accuracy of the extracted attributes. The issue of supplier evaluation and selection is solved by an extended VIKOR method based on regret theory.
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