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Book part
Publication date: 1 July 2015

Nikolay Markov

This chapter estimates a regime switching Taylor Rule for the European Central Bank (ECB) in order to investigate some potential nonlinearities in the forward-looking…

Abstract

This chapter estimates a regime switching Taylor Rule for the European Central Bank (ECB) in order to investigate some potential nonlinearities in the forward-looking policy reaction function within a real-time framework. In order to compare observed and predicted policy behavior, the chapter estimates Actual and Perceived regime switching Taylor Rules for the ECB. The former is based on the refi rate set by the Governing Council while the latter relies on the professional point forecasts of the refi rate performed by a large investment bank before the upcoming policy rate decision. The empirical evidence shows that the Central Bank’s main policy rate has switched between two regimes: in the first one the Taylor Principle is satisfied and the ECB stabilizes the economic outlook, while in the second regime the Central Bank cuts rates more aggressively and puts a higher emphasis on stabilizing real output growth expectations. Second, the results point out that the professional forecasters have broadly well predicted the actual policy regimes. The estimation results are also robust to using consensus forecasts of inflation and real output growth. The empirical evidence from the augmented Taylor Rules shows that the Central Bank has most likely not responded to the growth rates of M3 and the nominal effective exchange rate and the estimated regimes are robust to including these additional variables in the regressions. Finally, after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers the policy rate has switched to a crisis regime as the ECB has focused on preventing a further decline in economic activity and on securing the stability of the financial system.

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Monetary Policy in the Context of the Financial Crisis: New Challenges and Lessons
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78441-779-6

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Article
Publication date: 1 May 2007

K.H. Liow and H. Zhu

The purpose of this paper is to explore a regime switching asset allocation model that includes six major real estate security markets (USA, UK, Japan, Australia, Hong…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to explore a regime switching asset allocation model that includes six major real estate security markets (USA, UK, Japan, Australia, Hong Kong and Singapore) and focuses on how the presence of regimes affects portfolio composition.

Design/methodology/approach

A Markov switching model is first developed to characterize real estate security markets’ risk‐return in two regimes. The mean‐variance portfolio construction methodology is then deployed in the presence of the two regimes. Finally, the out‐of‐sample analyzes are conducted to examine whether the regime switching allocation outperforms the conventional allocation strategy.

Findings

Strong evidence of regimes in the six real estate security markets in detected. The correlations between the various real estate security markets’ returns are higher in the bear market regime than in the bull market regime. Consequently the optimal real estate portfolio in the bear market regime is very different from that in the bull market regime. The out‐of‐sample tests reveal that the regime‐switching model outperforms the non‐regime dependent model, the world real estate portfolio and equally‐weighted portfolio from risk‐adjusted performance perspective.

Originality/value

The application of the Markov switching technique to real estate markets is relatively new and has great significance for international real estate diversification. With increased significance of international securitized property as a real estate investment vehicle for institutional investors to gain worldwide real estate exposure, this study provides significant insights into the investment behavior and optimal asset allocation implications of the listed real estate when returns follow a regime switching process.

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Journal of Property Investment & Finance, vol. 25 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-578X

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Article
Publication date: 5 April 2011

Peixin (Payton) Liu, Kuan Xu and Yonggan Zhao

This paper aims to extend the Fama and French (FF) three‐factor model in studying time‐varying risk premiums of Sector Select Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) under a Markov…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to extend the Fama and French (FF) three‐factor model in studying time‐varying risk premiums of Sector Select Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) under a Markov regime‐switching framework.

Design/methodology/approach

First, the original FF model is augmented to include three additional macro factors – market volatility, yield spread, and credit spread. Then, the FF model is extended to a model with a Markov regime switching mechanism for bull, bear, and transition market regimes.

Findings

It is found that all market regimes are persistent, with the bull market regime being the most persistent, and the bear market regime being the least persistent. Both the risk premiums of the Sector Select ETFs and their sensitivities to the risk factors are highly regime dependent.

Research limitations/implications

The regime‐switching model has a superior performance in capturing the risk sensitivities of the Sector Select ETFs, that would otherwise be missed by both the FF and the augmented FF models.

Originality/value

This is the first research on Sector Select ETFs with Markov regime switching.

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International Journal of Managerial Finance, vol. 7 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1743-9132

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Book part
Publication date: 29 February 2008

Massimo Guidolin and Carrie Fangzhou Na

We address an interesting case – the predictability of excess US asset returns from macroeconomic factors within a flexible regime-switching VAR framework – in which the…

Abstract

We address an interesting case – the predictability of excess US asset returns from macroeconomic factors within a flexible regime-switching VAR framework – in which the presence of regimes may lead to superior forecasting performance from forecast combinations. After documenting that forecast combinations provide gains in predictive accuracy and that these gains are statistically significant, we show that forecast combinations may substantially improve portfolio selection. We find that the best-performing forecast combinations are those that either avoid estimating the pooling weights or that minimize the need for estimation. In practice, we report that the best-performing combination schemes are based on the principle of relative past forecasting performance. The economic gains from combining forecasts in portfolio management applications appear to be large, stable over time, and robust to the introduction of realistic transaction costs.

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Forecasting in the Presence of Structural Breaks and Model Uncertainty
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-84950-540-6

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Book part
Publication date: 21 November 2014

Alex Maynard and Dongmeng Ren

We compare the finite sample power of short- and long-horizon tests in nonlinear predictive regression models of regime switching between bull and bear markets, allowing…

Abstract

We compare the finite sample power of short- and long-horizon tests in nonlinear predictive regression models of regime switching between bull and bear markets, allowing for time varying transition probabilities. As a point of reference, we also provide a similar comparison in a linear predictive regression model without regime switching. Overall, our results do not support the contention of higher power in longer horizon tests in either the linear or nonlinear regime switching models. Nonetheless, it is possible that other plausible nonlinear models provide stronger justification for long-horizon tests.

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Essays in Honor of Peter C. B. Phillips
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78441-183-1

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Article
Publication date: 28 February 2020

Mobeen Ur Rehman and Nicholas Apergis

This study aims to investigate the impact of sentiment shocks based on US investor sentiments, bearish and bullish market conditions. Earlier studies, though very few…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to investigate the impact of sentiment shocks based on US investor sentiments, bearish and bullish market conditions. Earlier studies, though very few, only consider the effect of investor sentiments on stock returns of emerging frontier Asian (EFA) markets.

Design/methodology/approach

This study uses the application of regime switching model because of its capability to explore time-varying causality across different regimes unlike traditional linear models. The Markov regime switching model uses regime switching probabilities for capturing the potential asymmetries or non-linearity in a model, in this study’s case, thereby adjusting investor sentiments shocks to stock market returns.

Findings

The results of the Markov regime switching method suggests that US sentiment, bullish and bearish market shocks act as a main contributors for inducing variation in EFA stock market returns. The study’s non-parametric robustness results highlight an asymmetric relationship across the mean series, whereas a symmetric relationship across variance series. The study also reports Thailand as the most sensitive market to global sentiment shocks.

Research limitations/implications

The sensitivity of the EFA markets to these global sentiment shocks highlights their sensitivity and implications for investors relying merely on returns correlation and spillover. These findings also suggest that spillover from developed to emerging and frontier equity markets only in the form of returns following traditional linear models may not be appropriate.

Practical implications

This paper supports the behavioral aspect of investors and resultant spillover from developed market sentiments to emerging and frontier market returns across international equity markets offering more rational justification for an irrational behavior.

Originality/value

The study’s motivation to use the application of regime switching models is because of its capability to explore time-varying causality across different regimes unlike traditional linear models. The Markov regime switching model uses regime switching probabilities for capturing the potential asymmetries or non-linearity in a model, in the study’s case, thereby adjusting investor sentiments shocks to stock market returns. It is also useful of the adjustment attributable to exogenous events.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 47 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

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Article
Publication date: 23 July 2020

Yang Xiao

The purpose of this paper is to investigate regime-switching and single-regime GARCH models for the extreme risk forecast of the developed and the emerging crude oil markets.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to investigate regime-switching and single-regime GARCH models for the extreme risk forecast of the developed and the emerging crude oil markets.

Design/methodology/approach

The regime-switching GARCH-type models and their single-regime counterparts are used in risk forecast of crude oil.

Findings

The author finds that the regime-switching GARCH-type models are suitable for the developed and the emerging crude oil markets in that they effectively measure the extreme risk of crude oil in different cases. Meanwhile, the model with switching regimes captures dynamic structures in financial markets, and these models are just only better than the corresponding single-regime in terms of long position risk forecast, instead of short position. That is, it just outperforms the single-regime on the downside risk forecast.

Originality/value

This study comprehensively compares risk forecast of crude oil in different situations through the competitive models. The obtained findings have strong implications to investors and policymakers for selecting a suitable model to forecast extreme risk of crude oil when they are faced with portfolio selection, asset allocation and risk management.

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International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

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Article
Publication date: 15 June 2010

Cuicui Luo, Luis A. Seco, Haofei Wang and Desheng Dash Wu

The purpose of this paper is to deal with the different phases of volatility behavior and the dependence of the variability of the time series on its own past, models…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to deal with the different phases of volatility behavior and the dependence of the variability of the time series on its own past, models allowing for heteroscedasticity like autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH), generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH), or regime‐switching models have been suggested by reserachers. Both types of models are widely used in practice.

Design/methodology/approach

Both regime‐switching models and GARCH are used in this paper to model and explain the behavior of crude oil prices in order to forecast their volatility. In regime‐switching models, the oil return volatility has a dynamic process whose mean is subject to shifts, which is governed by a two‐state first‐order Markov process.

Findings

The GARCH models are found to be very useful in modeling a unique stochastic process with conditional variance; regime‐switching models have the advantage of dividing the observed stochastic behavior of a time series into several separate phases with different underlying stochastic processes.

Originality/value

The regime‐switching models show similar goodness‐of‐fit result to GARCH modeling, while has the advantage of capturing major events affecting the oil market. Daily data of crude oil prices are used from NYMEX Crude Oil market for the period 13 February 2006 up to 21 July 2009.

Details

Kybernetes, vol. 39 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0368-492X

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Book part
Publication date: 26 April 2011

C. Sherman Cheung and Peter C. Miu

Using a market model of international equity returns, which fully incorporates the regime switching and heteroskedasticity effects, we conduct an empirical study on the…

Abstract

Using a market model of international equity returns, which fully incorporates the regime switching and heteroskedasticity effects, we conduct an empirical study on the asymmetric behavior of 31 emerging equity markets across the different regimes of both the global and the local markets. Asymmetric correlation is found to be much weaker than that among developed markets as documented in the recent studies. There is little evidence of performance enhancement by possessing information on asymmetric correlation in international asset allocation strategies involving emerging markets.

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Research in Finance
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-0-85724-541-0

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Book part
Publication date: 27 June 2014

C. Sherman Cheung and Peter Miu

Real estate investment has been generally accepted as a value-adding proposition for a portfolio investor. Such an impression is not only shared by investment…

Abstract

Real estate investment has been generally accepted as a value-adding proposition for a portfolio investor. Such an impression is not only shared by investment professionals and financial advisors but also appears to be supported by an overwhelming amount of research in the academic literature. The benefits of adding real estate as an asset class to a well-diversified portfolio are usually attributed to the respectable risk-return profile of real estate investment together with the relatively low correlation between its returns and the returns of other financial assets. By using the regime-switching technique on an extensive historical dataset, we attempt to look for the statistical evidence for such a claim. Unfortunately, the empirical support for the claim is neither strong nor universal. We find that any statistically significant improvement in risk-adjusted return is very much limited to the bullish environment of the real estate market. In general, the diversification benefit is not found to be statistically significant unless investors are relatively risk averse. We also document a regime-switching behavior of real estate returns similar to those found in other financial assets. There are two distinct states of the real estate market. The low-return (high-return) state is characterized by its high (low) volatility and its high (low) correlations with the stock market returns. We find this kind of dynamic risk characteristics to play a crucial role in dictating the diversification benefit from real estate investment.

Details

Signs that Markets are Coming Back
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78350-931-7

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