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This study is motivated in part by the fact that the unfolding 2022 bear market, which has reached the −25% drawdown, has not been preceded by the inverted 10Y-3 m spread or an inverted near-term forward spread.

The authors develop a three-factor probit model to predict/explain the deep stock market drawdowns, which the authors define as the drawdowns in excess of 20%.

The study results show that (1) the rising credit risk predicts a deep drawdown about a year in advance and (2) the monetary policy easing precedes an imminent drawdown below the 20% threshold.

This study three-factor probit model shows adaptability beyond the typical recessionary bear market and predicts/explains the liquidity-based selloffs, like the 2022 and possibly the 1987 deep drawdowns.

The purpose of this paper is to examine the degree of persistence in four precious metal prices (i.e. gold, palladium, platinum and silver) during the last four US recessions.

Using daily price data for gold, palladium, platinum and silver running from July 2, 1990, to March 21, 2022, and dating of business cycles in the USA provided by NBER (2022), the paper uses fractional integration to test the degree of persistence of precious metal prices.

The empirical analysis shows the unrelenting prominence of gold in relation to other precious metals (palladium, platinum and silver) as a hedge against market uncertainty in the post-pandemic new era.

Two are the main contributions of the paper. Firstly, the authors contribute to the commodity markets and finance literature on precious metal price modelling. Secondly, the authors also contribute to the literature on commodity markets and business cycles with a special focus on recessionary periods.

This paper aims to examine the effect of R&D laboratories on the perceived performance of MNE subsidiaries during recession.

Employing resource-based view and knowledge-based theory, the authors investigate a unique sample of 171 technologically heterogenous foreign MNE subsidiaries located in Greece over the period of recession 2009–2016. The sample subsidiaries operate different types of R&D laboratories.

The authors find that MNE subsidiaries with advanced R&D laboratories such as locally integrated laboratories (LILs) and internationally interdependent laboratories (IILs) perform better in recession than subsidiaries with support laboratories (SLs) or subsidiaries without R&D laboratories. Overall, the authors find an asymmetric performance contribution of R&D laboratories at subsidiary level.

The study provides useful insights into the environmentally derived “knowledge-based - performance” context, so filling an important research gap, since little is known about the performance impact of the input-side of technological activity at MNE subsidiary level, especially as regards R&D facilities/infrastructure. Based on the findings the authors identify important managerial implications.

This study aims to analyse the effects of Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) on the return of growth/value and small/large-cap stocks during expansionary and recessionary periods across a conditional distribution.

The authors selected a sample covering the period between 01/1995–05/2021. Quantile regressions were applied to the EPU and Russell indices. Business cycles were established following the NBER.

The results show that EPU has a negative effect on stocks with the intensity of the effect depending on the stock's profile. Small-cap and growth stocks were found to be most sensitive to EPU, especially during recessions. The negative effect is moderated by the economic cycle but is progressively diluted at the lower tail of the stock return distribution.

The findings shed more light on investment strategies for growth/value investors that pursue opportunities arising from a changing economic cycle.

This study makes the following contributions: (1) explores the impact of EPU on the return of different stocks across a conditional distribution, and (2) provides evidence on how the economic cycle influences EPU impact on growth/value stocks and small/large stocks.

:本研究擬分析跨條件分佈、以及於擴張期和衰退期,經濟政策不確定性對成長型股票/價值股和小盤股/大型股的收益的影響。

我們選擇了涵蓋1995年1月與2021年5月期間的樣本進行研究。我們於經濟政策不確定性指數和羅素指數上採用分位數迴歸法進行研究; 並跟隨著美國國家經濟研究局,建立了多個經濟週期。

研究結果顯示,經濟政策不確定性對股票是有負面影響的,而影響的強度則視乎股票的投資組合而定。我們發現,小盤股和成長型股票對經濟政策不確定性是非常敏感的,尤其是在經濟衰退期間。這負面影響會被經濟週期緩和,唯這緩和作用卻會在股票收益的低尾處逐漸減輕。

研究結果使我們更容易理解為尋找因經濟週期改變而衍生的機會的增長/價值投資者所提供的投資策略。

本研究有以下的貢獻:(一) 、 探究了經濟政策不確定性對跨條件分佈、不同的股票收益的影響; (二) 、為經濟週期會如何左右經濟政策不確定性對成長型股票/價值股和小盤股/大型股的影響,提供了證據。

The purpose of this paper is to explain the effects of innovation, specialisation, qualifications and sectoral structure on the resilience of German regions (municipal level) facing the Great Recession in 2008/2009.

To calculate the effects of various variables on the resilience of German regions against the Great Recession, the authors use quantile regressions. To measure resilience, the authors create a number of indexes representing different parts of the economy: resistance performance index, recovery performance index, shift-share resistance index, shift-share recovery index, manufacturing resistance index, manufacturing recovery index, service resistance index and service recovery index.

The results of this study confirm that locations with employment growth before the crisis and with a good industry structure show better employment dynamics during and after the crisis. The authors find evidence for positive relationship between innovativeness, qualification, the share of the service sector, specialisation and resistance. The authors obtain positive results for related variety and both resistance and recovery. The share of the manufacturing sector only shows a positive relationship with recovery.

The authors expand the existing literature in three aspects: First, instead of using regions as observation units, the authors conduct the analyses on the basis of municipalities and their surroundings. By doing so, the authors reduce the modifiable area unit problem because the authors do not rely on regions defined for administrative reasons. Second, the authors apply quantile regressions to detect nonlinear effects. Third, in addition to the resilience of the whole economy, the authors also study the resilience of the manufacturing and service sectors separately and examine the resilience of the local shift effect.

Might the impact of the financial stress on exchange markets be asymmetric and exposed to regime changes? Departing from the existing literature, highlighting that the domestic and foreign financial stress in terms of money market have substantial effects on exchange market, this paper aims to investigate the impacts of the bond yield spreads of three emerging countries (Mexico, Russia, and South Korea) on their exchange market pressure indices using monthly observations for the period 2010:01–2019:12. Additionally, the paper analyses the impact of bond yield spread of the US on the exchange market pressure indices of the three mentioned emerging countries. The authors hypothesized whether the negative and positive changes in the bond yield spreads have varying effects on exchange market pressure indices.

To address the research question, we measure the bond yield spread of the selected countries by using the interest rate spread between 10-year and 3-month treasury bills. At the same time, the exchange market pressure index is proxied by the index introduced by Desai et al. (2017). We base the empirical analysis on nonlinear vector autoregression (VAR) models and an asymmetric quantile-based approach.

The results of the impulse response functions indicate that increases/decreases in the bond yield spreads of Mexico, Russia and South Korea raise/lower their exchange market pressure, and the effects of shocks in the bond yield spreads of the US also lead to depreciation/appreciation pressures in the local currencies of the emerging countries. The quantile connectedness analysis, which allows for the role of regimes, reveals that the weights of the domestic and foreign bond yield spread in explaining variations of exchange market pressure indices are higher when exchange market pressure indices are not in a normal regime, indicating the role of extreme development conditions in the exchange market. The quantile regression model underlines that an increase in the domestic bond yield spread leads to a rise in its exchange market pressure index during all exchange market pressure periods in Mexico, and the relevant effects are valid during periods of high exchange market pressure in Russia. Our results also show that Russia differs from Mexico and South Korea in terms of the factors influencing the demand for domestic currency, and we have demonstrated the role of domestic macroeconomic and financial conditions in surpassing the effects of US financial stress. More specifically, the impacts of the domestic and foreign financial stress vary across regimes and are asymmetric.

This study enriches the literature on factors affecting the exchange market pressure of emerging countries. The results have significant economic implications for policymakers, indicating that the exchange market pressure index may trigger a financial crisis and economic recession.

As young individuals transition from educational settings to embark on their career paths, their expectations for their future careers become of paramount importance. Ng et al. (2010) examined the expectations of young people in post-secondary education in 2007; those colloquially referred to as “Millennials” or “GenY”. The present study replicates Ng et al.'s (2010) study among a sample of post-secondary students in 2019 (referred to as Generation Z or GenZ) and compares the expectations of young adults in GenY and GenZ.

This study employs a time-lag comparison of GenY and GenZ young career entrants based on data collected in 2007 (n = 23,413) and 2019 (n = 16,146).

Today's youth seem to have realistic expectations for their first jobs and the analyses suggest that young people continue to seek positive, healthy work environments which make room for work–life balance. Further, young people today are prioritizing job security and are not necessarily mobile due to preference, restlessness or disloyalty, but rather leave employers that are not meeting their current needs or expectations.

Understanding the career expectations of young people allows educators, employers and policymakers to provide vocational guidance that aligns those expectations with the realities of the labor market and the contemporary career context.

While GenY was characterized as optimistic with great expectations, GenZ can be described as cautious and pragmatic. The results suggest a shift away from opportunity, towards security, stability, an employer that reflects one's values and a job that is satisfying in the present.

This study explores the phenomenon of compassionate leadership, a promising concept in management literature. Despite significant contributions towards the understanding of its antecedents and consequences, the specific role of compassion concerning the leader behavior under extreme pressure remains unexplored.

Drawing empirically on the case of three banks under three different logics, the authors trace how heads of banking branches, namely, middle managers, deal with the paradoxical phenomenon of integrating their human nature with the coetaneous need to achieve aggressive objectives. The authors analyzed interviews using the interpretive research method (Hatch and Yanow, 2003).

The authors identified that the logic of savings banks and credit cooperatives, together with specific human elements, created a healthier environment to develop compassionate behaviors compared to commercial banks. The authors found coherence when linking the institutional message of putting the spotlight on a personalized treatment of customers, and the middle manager compassionate actions towards customers and subordinates.

Suggestions for future theorizing and research are advanced, along with constructive practical implications to rehumanize the dark side of banking for both employees and customers.

The findings provided in this paper are original because they provide further evidence of linking business logics with compassionate leadership of middle managers and its impact on employees and customers.

The outbreak of COVID-19 has become a major public health emergency worldwide. How to effectively guide public opinion and implement precise prevention and control is a hot topic in current research. Mining the spatiotemporal coupling between online public opinion and offline epidemics can provide decision support for the precise management and control of future emergencies.

This study focuses on analyzing the spatiotemporal coupling relationship between public opinion and the epidemic. First, based on Weibo information and confirmed case information, a field framework is constructed using field theory. Second, SnowNLP is used for sentiment mining and LDA is utilized for topic extraction to analyze the topic evolution and the sentiment evolution of public opinion in each coupling stage. Finally, the spatial model is used to explore the coupling relationship between public opinion and the epidemic in space.

The findings show that there is a certain coupling between online public opinion sentiment and offline epidemics, with a significant coupling relationship in the time dimension, while there is no remarkable coupling relationship in space. In addition, the core topics of public concern are different at different coupling stages.

This study deeply explores the spatiotemporal coupling relationship between online public opinion and offline epidemics, adding a new research perspective to related research. The result can help the government and relevant departments understand the dynamic development of epidemic events and achieve precise control while mastering the dynamics of online public opinion.

This study examines the impact of financial inclusion on the corporate sustainability of banks in both Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) and non-OIC emerging economies, considering the COVID-19 pandemic.

The research utilizes data from 3,159 bank-years from 2007 to 2021 across 33 emerging markets.

Empirical findings indicate that firms operating in higher financial inclusion developing countries tend to exhibit higher levels of sustainable development. This positive relationship has become even more pronounced during the COVID-19 pandemic, suggesting the importance of financial inclusion in fostering corporate sustainability, especially in times of economic challenges. Interestingly, while the positive correlation between financial inclusion and sustainable development remains consistent across both OIC and non-OIC countries, firms in OIC countries do not show significant changes during the pandemic.

This observation suggests that the pandemic’s impact on corporate sustainability may vary between the two groups of countries. This study highlights the significance of financial inclusion in promoting corporate sustainability in developing economies. In times of recessions when accessing finance becomes expensive, policymakers in OIC countries should identify firms that adhere to Islamic principles, such as those sensitive to interest rates, and provide them with targeted support. This assistance can enable these companies to compete effectively and achieve their financial sustainability objectives.

There has been no attempt to investigate the effect of financial inclusion and the pandemic on the sustainable development of banks in developing countries.