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The Current Global Recession
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78635-157-9

Book part
Publication date: 6 April 2021

Amit Chatterjee and Ramesh Chandra Das

This study analyzes the trends and patterns of strategic and innovative macroeconomic variables during recession or slowdown periods of 10 countries – Brazil, the United…

Abstract

This study analyzes the trends and patterns of strategic and innovative macroeconomic variables during recession or slowdown periods of 10 countries – Brazil, the United States, UK, Germany, France, China, Japan, India, Saudi Arabia, and South Korea for the period 1980–2018, which includes major recessions like the 1982 debt crisis, 1991 economic crisis, 1997 Asian Financial crisis, and 2008 Sub-prime crisis. This study devised two models – Logistic Regression and a Range-based Custom-Made Recession-cum-Economy State indicator, based on Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) model parameters. Results for the logistic regression model show that most of the marginal effect values are positive for variables linked with globalization indicating that increase in adverse impact on such variables increases the probability of recession. The custom-made statistical index provides an individual country-wise range, along with a global range for the weighted total of the variables, the weights for which are derived from the DOLS model, which has a 59.66% accuracy in estimating the condition of an economy. The recent worldwide experience indicates that probability of recessions has decreased, and slowdowns have increased over a period. This is evident from the Cumulative Trend of Economic State analysis that indicates that the recession probabilities of countries have decreased 1990 and that of slowdown have become highly volatile.

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Strategic Outlook in Business and Finance Innovation: Multidimensional Policies for Emerging Economies
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-80043-445-5

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Book part
Publication date: 1 March 2016

Carolyn E. Predmore and Lauren Trabold

In much of the literature written in Sustainability and Environmental Justice, the focus is on the effects of government mismanagement or corporate social…

Abstract

Purpose

In much of the literature written in Sustainability and Environmental Justice, the focus is on the effects of government mismanagement or corporate social irresponsibility, or CSR ignored for the goal of greater profits. Certainly we have seen natural resources ripped from communities and nations for the benefit of corporate profits (Sarkar, 2013). The idea that a participatory government will lead to greater efforts for sustainability must be viewed in the light of its times and economy (Gonzalez-Perez, 2013). What happens when the man-made disaster precedes or clashes with natural disaster? The Great Recession of 2008 was stunning in the rapidity with which it spread around the globe. The recession illustrated a global acceptance of financial wisdom that had been presented as fact and yet could easily be undermined by people who understood the barriers, boundaries, and restrictions in place as well as where the financial assumptions could be deceived by introduction of new terms and definitions as in the case of credit default swaps.

In this chapter, we focus on the influence of the recession on one of the most powerful financial capitals of the world, New York City. We discuss the general effect of the recession on New York City as a whole and then take a narrower look at each of the five boroughs, Manhattan, Queens, Staten Island, Brooklyn, and the Bronx. We examine the disparate economic states of each borough and how the recession has impacted each of them. Furthermore, we discuss the implications of the general perception of Manhattan’s resilience to the recession and how is has impacted the other boroughs, such as the housing crisis in Staten Island and Queens following Hurricane Sandy, unemployment rates in the Bronx, and the rebuilding of a sustainable job market in Brooklyn.

Findings

We reviewed relevant literature, including academic research, reports issued by the State of New York, census data, articles printed in popular press outlets, and business resources to provide a thorough look at the influence of the Great Recession on New York City and each of its five boroughs. We found extensive support for the disparity amongst the five boroughs, despite the perception that New York City is thriving in the wake of the Great Recession and Hurricane Sandy. We detail the unique economic and environmental factors of each borough and explain how it influenced the impact of the Great Recession and subsequent natural disaster.

Manhattan was well insulated from the initial impact of the Great Recession, with tourism in the city remaining high through 2008 and financial firms on Wall Street experiencing record high profits well into 2009. Despite the downfall of Lehmann Brothers and Merrill Lynch, the financial bailouts and Federal Reserve credit available to Wall Street firms prevented Manhattan’s financial sector from experiencing the dramatic unemployment rates that the rest of New York and the United States were facing (DeFreitas, 2009).

The Great Recession hit disadvantaged areas, like the Bronx, harder than other areas of New York, while Hurricane Sandy halted the economic recovery in areas like Queens and Staten Island. While unemployment remains low in New York City as a whole, the recovery from the Great Recession has been uneven, further widening the gap between New York City’s boroughs, with the lower income areas at a greater disadvantage and the higher income areas souring. While Manhattan has recovered significantly, with Wall Street profits reaching record levels in 2009, other boroughs haven’t experienced the same economic upturn and are still facing significant challenges (Parrott, 2010). While the city has gained nearly 375,000 jobs, nearly twice the number of jobs that were lost during the Great Recession (Crain’s New York Business, 2013), the significant variance in wages and high costs of living has not greatly reduced the number of working poor across New York City and has not resulted in an evenly spread boost in wealth.

Practical implications

At the end of our chapter, we discuss “lessons learned” and, in particular, the importance of preparation for both fiscal and natural disasters. Local policy makers must ensure that the needs of its constituents are being met and will be met in the future if such hardship were to strike. Government leaders need to have a forward-looking plan, rather than simply handling immediate needs.

Originality/value

The originality of our content stems from a deeper look into the nuances of the economy of New York City. Statistics paint a picture of a thriving City, despite the Great Recession. However, understanding the distinct differences amongst the five boroughs illustrates that these citywide averages do not paint an accurate picture of life for New Yorkers off of Wall Street. The extent to which the high-income areas in Manhattan have recovered suggests that the economy of New York City as a whole is thriving, whereas the reality is that the middle-class has not recovered and the previously disadvantaged are now even more so. It is important to look at each of the five boroughs of New York City individually when creating policy to both recover from and prevent events such as the Great Recession and the destruction of Hurricane Sandy. Our chapter illustrates stark differences within New York City in the face of both financial and natural crises.

Details

Lessons from the Great Recession: At the Crossroads of Sustainability and Recovery
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78560-743-1

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 19 December 2017

Michael Wallace and Joonghyun Kwak

Using a sample of 214 US metropolitan areas, we examine the connection between the Great Recession and bad jobs, taking into consideration the macro-level determinants of…

Abstract

Using a sample of 214 US metropolitan areas, we examine the connection between the Great Recession and bad jobs, taking into consideration the macro-level determinants of the troubled economy. Our measure of bad jobs is derived from Kalleberg, Reskin, and Hudson’s (2000) conceptualization as those that have low pay, lack health insurance, and lack pension plans. We find that the Great Recession increased the prevalence of bad jobs, consistently for men and selectively for women. Among the macro-level processes, the decline of the manufacturing base, union membership, and public sector employment are sources of increasing bad jobs, especially for men. Those macro-level processes which are growing in influence such as casualization, globalization and financialization show no signs of reversing the negative trends in bad jobs. Human capital variables in the labor market such as educational and age variability consistently suggest more adverse effects on bad jobs for men than women. Our findings contribute to the further understanding of the nature of precarious work in a troubled economy.

Book part
Publication date: 19 September 2014

Eirik Sjåholm Knudsen and Lasse B. Lien

The relevance of finance for strategy is probably never greater than during a recession. We argue that the strategy literature has been virtually silent on the issue of…

Abstract

The relevance of finance for strategy is probably never greater than during a recession. We argue that the strategy literature has been virtually silent on the issue of recessions, and that this constitutes a regrettable sin of omission. Recessions are also periods when the commonly held view of financial markets in the strategy literature – efficient, and therefore strategically irrelevant – is particularly misplaced. A key route to rectify this omission is to focus on how recessions affect investment behavior, and thereby firms’ stocks of assets and capabilities which ultimately will affect competitive outcomes. In the present chapter, we aim to contribute by analyzing how two key aspects of recessions, demand reductions and reductions in credit availability, affect three different types of investments: physical capital, R&D and innovation, and human- and organizational capital. We synthesize and conceptualize insights from finance- and macroeconomics about how recessions affect different types of investments and find that recessions not only affect the level of investment, but also the composition of investments. Some of these effects are quite counterintuitive. For example, investments in R&D are both more and less sensitive to credit constraints than physical capital is, depending on available internal finance. Investments in human capital grow as demand falls, and both R&D and human capital investments show important nonlinearities with respect to changes in demand.

Details

Finance and Strategy
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78350-493-0

Keywords

Abstract

Details

Nonlinear Time Series Analysis of Business Cycles
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-0-44451-838-5

Book part
Publication date: 30 September 2010

Kajal Lahiri

With the increasing importance of the service-providing sectors, information from these sectors has become essential to the understanding of contemporary business cycles…

Abstract

With the increasing importance of the service-providing sectors, information from these sectors has become essential to the understanding of contemporary business cycles. Contribution of services to GDP during postwar recessions is clearly recorded in Table 4.1. On average, decline in real GDP during recessions would have been at least 70% more severe without the stabilization effect from services. Moore (1987) noted that the ability of the service sectors to create jobs has differentiated business cycles since the 1980s, and has led economy-wide recessions to be shorter and less severe. This is reflected as mild declines in employment of service sectors and its dominance in the total nonfarm employment, as plotted in Figure 4.1a. The growth in real GDP by major type of products obtained from National NIPA is depicted in Figure 4.1b. Since 1985, services never had a negative growth, which has muted the volatility in goods and structures, and resulted in more stable economy measured by total GDP (see also McConnell and Perez-Quiros, 2000).

Details

Transportation Indicators and Business Cycles
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-0-85724-148-1

Book part
Publication date: 7 September 2012

Liana Christin Landivar

Purpose – A central claim of the “added worker effect” is that married women increase their employment when husbands experience unemployment. This study evaluates the…

Abstract

Purpose – A central claim of the “added worker effect” is that married women increase their employment when husbands experience unemployment. This study evaluates the added worker effect in the context of the Great Recession. I examine whether married mothers increased their employment during the recession, and if the increase in employment occurred in households where the husband experienced unemployment.

Methodology/approach – I employ descriptive statistics and logistic regression models using 2006 and 2010 American Community Survey data.

Findings – I show that married mothers’ increased employment occurred in households that were less economically disadvantaged prior to the recession. The demand for married women's employment should have been stronger in households where men were employed in industries that were hard-hit by the recession. However, employment rates were lower among women married to men with lower earnings who were employed in the industries with the highest unemployment.

Social implications – These results show that women are not equally able to respond to husbands’ unemployment. Women with lower levels of education and lacking in job experience may be unable to obtain a job in a tight labor market. This may account for some of the household economic polarization and concentration of poverty in the last recession.

Originality/value of paper – Recent studies suggest that couples may be able to make up for spousal unemployment by increasing labor supply of other household members. However, these results indicate that the households that have the greatest need for additional workers may be those that have the most difficulty securing employment.

Details

Economic Stress and the Family
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78052-978-3

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Book part
Publication date: 9 November 2009

Roberto Moro Visconti

The global recession has strongly affected the credibility of the international banking system, damaging also the real economy.Developing countries, not fully integrated…

Abstract

The global recession has strongly affected the credibility of the international banking system, damaging also the real economy.

Developing countries, not fully integrated with international markets, seem less affected and local microfinance institutions might also allow for a further shelter against recession, even if foreign support is slowing down and collection of international capital is harder and more expensive.

Intrinsic characteristics of microfinance, such as closeness to the borrowers, limited risk and exposure and little if any correlation with international markets have an anti-cyclical effect. In hard and confused times, it pays to be little, flexible and simple.

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Credit, Currency, or Derivatives: Instruments of Global Financial Stability Or crisis?
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-84950-601-4

Book part
Publication date: 12 June 2017

Mike Vuolo, Christopher Uggen and Sarah Lageson

This paper tests whether employers responded particularly negatively to African American job applicants during the deep U.S. recession that began in 2007. Theories of…

Abstract

This paper tests whether employers responded particularly negatively to African American job applicants during the deep U.S. recession that began in 2007. Theories of labor queuing and social closure posit that members of privileged groups will act to minimize labor market competition in times of economic turbulence, which could advantage Whites relative to African Americans. Although social closure should be weakest in the less desirable, low-wage job market, it may extend downward during recessions, pushing minority groups further down the labor queue and exacerbating racial inequalities in hiring. We consider two complementary data sources: (1) a field experiment with a randomized block design and (2) the nationally representative NLSY97 sample. Contrary to expectations, both analyses reveal a comparable recession-based decline in job prospects for White and African American male applicants, implying that hiring managers did not adapt new forms of social closure and demonstrating the durability of inequality even in times of structural change. Despite this proportionate drop, however, the recession left African Americans in an extremely disadvantaged position. Whites during the recession obtained favorable responses from employers at rates similar to African Americans prior to the recession. The combination of experimental methods and nationally representative longitudinal data yields strong evidence on how race and recession affect job prospects in the low-wage labor market.

Details

Emerging Conceptions of Work, Management and the Labor Market
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78714-459-0

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