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1 – 10 of over 65000The interpretation and valuation of real options by means of options pricing theory can be regarded as a relatively new paradigm of investment theory. Option pricing theory based…
Abstract
The interpretation and valuation of real options by means of options pricing theory can be regarded as a relatively new paradigm of investment theory. Option pricing theory based investment valuation represents a sound theoretical basis and offers principally a simple decision base. The approach recognises entrepreneurial flexibility and risk explicitly. It implies a positive correlation between flexibility respectively uncertainty and the value of options. Traditional deterministic‐dynamic standard methods of valuation are not able to value flexibility or risk effectively so that option values are adequately reflected. As property investors gradually embrace modern financial concepts it is clear that real estate valuation theory will have to change. One of the most promising areas that could have an important implication on the further development of valuation is the application of the real options paradigm. The author investigates the transfer of general real options theory through an examination of academic results in the field of real estate development. He comes to the conclusion that current research generates highly academic‐abstract results with limited practical value. So far a limited number of quantitative studies regarding the valuation real estate projects with the real options method have been conducted. Practical valuations have yet to be comprehensively carried out. For doing so, further research concerning the basic prerequisites of real options theory has to be undertaken.
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The concepts of real options analysis, which transfer options analysis for financial investments to those involving real properties, such as land and plant facilities, have…
Abstract
Purpose
The concepts of real options analysis, which transfer options analysis for financial investments to those involving real properties, such as land and plant facilities, have already existed for 30 years. However, the actual application of real options analysis to technology portfolio planning has not been as widespread as expected. Among others, a major barrier to such applications appears to be a lack of appreciation and acceptance of real options by technology executives. This case study aims to present a successful application experience of real options analysis to technology portfolio planning and highlights the lessons learned in overcoming such lack of acceptance and other barriers.
Design/methodology/approach
The paper uses a case study approach. The methodology focuses on describing the key issues and solutions for applying real options analysis in the technology portfolio‐planning process of a company.
Findings
The findings in this paper showed that considerable barriers exist in the acceptance of real options analysis for technology portfolio planning. However, the experience in the case study provides successful approaches for overcoming these barriers.
Originality/value
The paper shows that few studies are available on the difficulties of introducing real options analysis in practical applications. This paper provides a valuable case study for such applications.
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Maartje van Reedt Dortland, Hans Voordijk and Geert Dewulf
The objective of this paper is to provide insights about the potential of real option thinking for corporate real estate management (CREM) from the owner-user perspective. A…
Abstract
Purpose
The objective of this paper is to provide insights about the potential of real option thinking for corporate real estate management (CREM) from the owner-user perspective. A promising approach to classifying and evaluating flexibility in real estate is the real options approach. Most literature on real options look from an investor perspective.
Design/methodology/approach
First, a review on real option thinking in the real estate and large engineering projects literature is provided using Flyvbjerg’s (2001) typology of knowledge systems. Next, the effects of exercising real options for various stakeholders in CREM is analysed in two case studies.
Findings
The literature review shows that little research has been done on conditions and values needed to make real options applicable in the CREM practice of the owner-user of real estate. The case studies show that real options are more valuable to one stakeholder than to another.
Practical implications
Based on the knowledge on conditions for and the consequences of exercising real options for various stakeholders, insight can be gained into the applicability of real options to the owner-user of real estate and how real options reasoning fits within this practice. A phronetic type of knowledge is needed that incorporates stakeholders’ interests.
Originality/value
Creating phronetic knowledge would allow understanding why and how real options are used, or could be used in the future, and heuristics could be developed. In this way, real estate management should become more resilient to changes.
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Real options available to developers and leading to an active and dynamic development of real estate assets are numerous. The purpose of the article is twofold. First, a…
Abstract
Purpose
Real options available to developers and leading to an active and dynamic development of real estate assets are numerous. The purpose of the article is twofold. First, a conceptual framework is proposed as a practical aid for recognizing and understanding some frequently recurring combinations of options (such as deferral and expansion options). Based on the definition and classification of real options available in real estate markets, a comprehensive valuation tool for quantifying the value of those options embedded in a real estate development project is thus developed using a portfolio view.
Design/methodology/approach
Based on standard option pricing techniques, the proposed conceptual methodology is validated by applying it to an actual case of an investment for the construction of a new, multi‐purpose building in the semi‐central zone of the urban area of Rome (Italy).
Findings
Based on a static land value of €34.7 million, a waiting mode (deferral option) at an early stage of developing a property accounts for 16 percent of the expanded land value of the project, with 8 percent of such value being contributed by the expansion option. A real options valuation of the options portfolio available to a real estate developer enables increasing the project value by 31.1 percent as opposed to a traditional DCF analysis. In line with financial options theory, values of real options increase as volatility rises.
Practical implications
The case‐based analysis highlights that: flexibility in real estate development may create additional value enabling real estate developers or funds to react to market trends as new information arrives and uncertainty on fundamental factors (e.g. property prices) unfolds; the extra value added by managerial flexibility is neglected by DCF/NPV techniques; contrary to the common criticism on its lack of rigor, option valuation theory is suitable for appraising real estate assets; a portfolio approach is crucial when multiple real options exist.
Originality/value
Active management of real estate investments in response to changing property market and technology conditions confers operating flexibility and strategic value to appraisal of development projects beyond what is traditionally captured by a DCF model. An options approach to valuing and managing real estate development may change the developer's perspective altogether. Based on the combination of an original classification and a portfolio view of options existing in real estate markets, a real options framework for assessing the value of strategic flexibility incorporated in a greenfield development project (also accounting for potential option interactions) is designed.
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Jussi Vimpari and Seppo Junnila
The purpose of this study is first to evaluate whether real options analysis (ROA) is suitable for valuing green building certificates, and second to calculate the real option…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this study is first to evaluate whether real options analysis (ROA) is suitable for valuing green building certificates, and second to calculate the real option value of a green certificate in a typical office building setting. Green buildings are demonstrated as one of the most profitable climate mitigation actions. However, no consensus exists among industry professionals about how green buildings and specifically green building certificates should be valued.
Design/methodology/approach
The research design of the study involves a theoretical part and an empirical part. In the theoretical part, option characteristics of green building certificates are identified and a contemporary real option valuation method is proposed for application. In the empirical part, the application is demonstrated in an embedded multiple case study design. Two different building cases (with and without green certificate) with eight independent cash flow valuations by eight industry professionals are used as data set for eight valuation case studies and analyses. Additionally, cross-case analysis is executed for strengthening the analysis.
Findings
The paper finds that green certificates have several characteristics similar to real options and supports the idea of using ROA in valuing a green certificate. The paper also explains how option pricing theory and discounted cash flow (DCF) method deal with uncertainty and what shortcomings of DCF could be overcome by ROA. The results show that a mean real option value of 985,000 (or 8.8 per cent premium to the mean property value) was found for a Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design Platinum certificate in the Finnish property market. The main finding of the paper suggests that the contemporary real option valuation methods are appropriate to assess the monetary value and the uncertainty of a green building certificate.
Originality/value
This is the first study to argue that option-pricing theory can be used for valuing green building certificates. The identification of the option characteristics of green building certificates and demonstration of the ROA in an empirical case makes questions whether the current mainstream investment analysis approaches are the most suitable methods for valuing green building certificates.
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Jianfu Shen and Frederik Pretorius
The purpose of this paper is to construct option pricing models for real estate development by considering and incorporating institutional arrangements, direct interactions and…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to construct option pricing models for real estate development by considering and incorporating institutional arrangements, direct interactions and financial constraints in the model. It extends the application of real option theory from the framework borrowed from financial option pricing, and considers the case where a development company has restrictions from outside environment and financial constraint. It explores the effects of these additional practical factors on real asset project value and development timing. This paper makes contributions to bridge the theoretical models and practical applications.
Design/methodology/approach
Real estate development is modelled in the binomial option pricing framework with the considerations of time‐to‐build, foregone rent if delaying, institutional environment and capital budgeting. The investment timings are derived from the models and sensitivity analysis is conducted to explore the effects of these factors.
Findings
Apart from the factors in traditional option pricing theory, this paper confirms that the contractual covenants, positive synergies between properties and financial status of the firm, which enhance or restrict real flexibility embedded in the development land, influence project value and investment timing. Numerical examples illustrate the effects of these factors. It is argued that the valuation of real options should place emphasis on industry‐specific characteristics and start from the perspective of the firm rather than individual options.
Practical implications
The models constructed in this paper and the results can be directly used in the practical real estate development.
Originality/value
This paper incorporates many practical factors in real estate development which are not investigated in previous studies. It values the option project from the firm perspective rather than project perspective as previous studies. It also shows the effects of institutional arrangement and firm factors on project value and development timing.
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Roberta Pellegrino, Nevena Vajdic and Nunzia Carbonara
Public-private partnerships (PPPs) require the analysis and allocation of a broad spectrum of risks which are considered more complex than in traditional construction contracts…
Abstract
Purpose
Public-private partnerships (PPPs) require the analysis and allocation of a broad spectrum of risks which are considered more complex than in traditional construction contracts. Traditional risk management techniques tend to ignore the manager's ability to recognize and exploit opportunities, which arise as uncertainties are resolved over time and which could potentially increase the project's value. Therefore it is necessary that the risk management process takes account of the managerial flexibility (e.g. real options). The objective of this paper is to explore the possibilities and rationale for implementing real options strategies in the risk management process.
Design/methodology/approach
The approach is based on a literature analysis aimed at identifying key risks and related mitigation strategies and on real option theory in order to model these strategies as managerial flexibilities that naturally exist or are built “artificially” in contractual conditions and clauses, guarantees, etc.
Findings
The paper develops an option-based risk management framework that associates to each risk the related mitigation strategies, which are expressed in terms of real options. The latter is expressed over the project phases conditioned to the natural evolution of risks over time.
Originality/value
This paper proposes a new “dynamic” risk management approach for PPP projects based on real options that improves the traditional risk management techniques by supporting the decision makers in finding a cost-effective combination of real options (or forms of flexibility) to embed in a PPP investment in order to optimally control risk and maximize investment value.
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Jeffrey N. Street and Mukunthan Santhanakrishnan
Decision making for acceptance of an R&D project occurs under uncertainty and may involve predominantly quantitative analyses, such as net‐present value, predominantly intuitive…
Abstract
Purpose
Decision making for acceptance of an R&D project occurs under uncertainty and may involve predominantly quantitative analyses, such as net‐present value, predominantly intuitive analyses, such as real options logic, or some combination thereof. This paper attempts to bring together two concepts of decision theory, i.e. heuristics and framing, and real options logic into one integrated view relative to R&D project valuation. It is believed that the integration of theory helps explain expected and unexpected decisions resulting from the R&D project valuation process.
Design/methodology/approach
It is proposed here that, under a typical R&D project review, aspects of two theoretical concepts integrate to aid project valuation and decision making. The aim of this paper is to develop a research framework leading to advancement in the understanding of the relationship of heuristic principles from decision theory and the valuation methodology of real options logic. Findings – As a conceptual paper, propositions and a research model representing the conceptual framework are presented.
Research limitations/implications
Stemming from the propositions and research model, it is believed that the degree of influence that heuristics potentially exhibit on real options logic can be successfully measured. Confirming the degree of influence is a matter for future empirical research.
Originality/value
The originality of this paper is to develop a research framework leading to advancement in the understanding of the relationship of heuristic principles from decision theory and the valuation methodology of real options logic. In this framework, heuristics has been positioned as a moderator affecting project valuation derived by real options logic.
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Kwabena Mintah, David Higgins and Judith Callanan
Uncertainties in residential property investment performance require that real estate assets are designed in a flexible manner to respond to impacts of market dynamics. Though…
Abstract
Purpose
Uncertainties in residential property investment performance require that real estate assets are designed in a flexible manner to respond to impacts of market dynamics. Though estimating the cost of flexibility is straightforward, assessing the economic value of flexibility is not. The purpose of this study is to explore the potential practical application of real option analysis to determine the economic value of a switching output flexibility embedded in a residential property investment in Australia. The study involves the exploration of an optimal strategy for investment in a residential development through real option analysis and valuation of a mixed use investment.
Design/methodology/approach
The real option valuation model developed by McDonald and Siegel (1986) is adopted for the evaluation because the switching output flexibility is likened to a perpetual American call option with dividend payout.
Findings
Through real option analysis, the economic value of switching output flexibility of the mixed use building was determined to be higher than the initial upfront costs. Moreover, a payoff of about $4million was determined to be the value of the switching output flexibility, therefore justifying upfront investments in flexibility as an uncertainty and risk management tool.
Practical implications
This application is an important demonstration of the practical use of options pricing techniques (real options analysis) and delivers further evidence needed to support the adoption of real option valuation in practice. Flexibility can also enhance risks and uncertainty management in residential property investment better than the adjustment of discount rates.
Originality/value
There is limited evidence on the use of real options techniques for the valuation of switching output flexibility in practice, and this comes as an original application; both the case study and data are all initial applications of switching flexibility in the Australian property market.
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Kwabena Mintah, David Higgins, Judith Callanan and Ron Wakefield
Real option valuation is capable of accounting for uncertainties in residential development projects but still lacks practical adoption due to limited evidence to support…
Abstract
Purpose
Real option valuation is capable of accounting for uncertainties in residential development projects but still lacks practical adoption due to limited evidence to support application of the theory in practice. The purpose of this paper is to use option valuation to value staging option embedded in residential projects and compare with results from DCF to determine which of the two methods delivers superior results.
Design/methodology/approach
The fuzzy payoff method (FPOM), a real options model that uses scenario planning approach to generate a range of figures, from which a single-numerical value is computed for decision-making.
Findings
The results showed that the use of a range of figures was able to represent uncertainties to a higher degree of accuracy than the static DCF. As a result, the FPOM was able to capture about 3 per cent of the value of the project that was missed by the DCF. The staging option offers an opportunity to abandon unprofitable phases of a project, thereby limiting downside losses. Thus, real option models are practically applicable to cases in property sector.
Practical implications
Residential property developers must consider flexibility in financial feasibility evaluation of development because of the embedded value in uncertain property projects. It is important to account for optionality in financial evaluation of property projects for value maximisation.
Originality/value
The FPOM has been used for the first time to evaluate a horizontal phasing of a residential development project.
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