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1 – 10 of over 172000Philip M. Booth and Gianluca Marcato
Despite improvements in certain countries in recent years, the provision of performance information on the direct real estate market still suffers from a lack of timeliness and…
Abstract
Despite improvements in certain countries in recent years, the provision of performance information on the direct real estate market still suffers from a lack of timeliness and reliability. The latter problem is particularly an issue for higher‐frequency data provision. This paper investigates whether there is information from the indirect market that might be useful in helping us understand better the direct real estate market. Direct real estate indices do not measure the performance of underlying transactions prices properly because they are based on valuations – and therefore may be subject to valuation smoothing. Indirect real estate indices do not properly measure the value investors put on the underlying assets of real estate companies because real estate companies are geared. Compares appropriately adjusted indices, and shows that there is information in indirect index returns that can usefully help us understand the performance of the direct market and an index is produced of de‐geared monthly real estate share returns for the UK.
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The Asian real estate markets have grown considerably in recent years and have taken on increased investment importance, particularly with significant developments in the emerging…
Abstract
Purpose
The Asian real estate markets have grown considerably in recent years and have taken on increased investment importance, particularly with significant developments in the emerging markets in Asia. This paper assesses the opportunities for more research on the Asian real estate markets, by highlighting the significance of Asia real estate, the drivers behind this growth and the unique opportunities this presents for high-quality real estate research, by both local researchers and their international colleagues. Strategies for delivering this research agenda are also identified.
Design/methodology/approach
This research is based on a thorough understanding of the Asian real estate markets, based on my own research agenda, personal interactions, insights and extensive discussions with real estate leaders in the Asian markets. This is supported by a clear understanding of the real estate research opportunities in the Asian markets and the strategies needed to deliver this research agenda in an effective manner.
Findings
A range of real estate research areas are identified to increase the level of Asian real estate research. This sees research opportunities around key areas such as market dynamics, real estate investment vehicles, alternate real estate sectors, infrastructure and sustainability. Strategies for expanding this level of research for both local and international real estate researchers are also identified.
Practical implications
With the Asian real estate markets taking on more importance with many international real estate investors, it is important to see more high-quality research into these dynamic real estate markets. This research will see a fuller understanding of these Asian real estate markets to enable more informed real estate investment decision-making.
Originality/value
The need for more high-quality research into the Asian real estate markets is clearly presented, with enabling strategies to achieve this agenda identified. This will see expanded research opportunities to critically research these unique real estate markets and produce high-quality research publications.
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Denis N. Yuni, Immaculata N. Enwo-Irem and Christian Urom
Geopolitical risks (GPR) and increase in equity market volatility due to health pandemics have great implications on assets prices around the world. Many empirical studies have…
Abstract
Purpose
Geopolitical risks (GPR) and increase in equity market volatility due to health pandemics have great implications on assets prices around the world. Many empirical studies have focused on the effects of these risks on different financial assets. The purpose of this paper is to contribute to this related literature by examining the dynamic effects of GPRs and infectious diseases–induced equity market volatility on regional and global house price indexes.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper explores the asymmetric effects of infectious diseases and GPRs on house prices across different market conditions using the quantile regression approach. This technique enables us to examine the nonlinear asymmetric effects of GPRs and infectious diseases on both global and regional house price indexes using daily data from January 1, 2011, to June 3, 2022. It focuses on both the effects of a composite measure of GPR as well as the disaggregated effects of threats and acts (war) on the real estate markets under different market conditions.
Findings
The main findings of this study demonstrates that the effects of geopolitical and infectious diseases–related risks vary differently across regional real estate markets and the nature of the GPR. In particular, the effects of geopolitical threats are stronger than those of geopolitical acts, especially for the European, Asia-Pacific and North American regions during bullish market periods. Except for the effects of geopolitical threats during real estate market downturns, the African real estate market appears to be insulated from the effects of GPRs across all market conditions. Also, the authors show that infectious diseases increase losses in real estate investments when the market condition is bearish for all markets and could extend toward the normal market period for the North American, Asia-Pacific and European markets. However, across all the market conditions, the effects of the composite index of GPRs are not significant for the Asia-Pacific and European regional markets. Results are mixed for the remaining markets, especially for the global market. Whereas during bearish market periods, the effect is positive, it becomes negative when the market condition become normal and insignificant when it becomes bullish. For the North American and African regional markets, the effect is positive under the bearish market state.
Originality/value
Increase in equity market volatility due to infectious diseases as well as conflicts and tensions among major powers, including potential risks of financial instability, all lead to significant increase in shocks to financial markets. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study to analyze the asymmetric and comparative effects of GPRs and infectious diseases–related equity market volatility on real estate investments across different regions and market conditions. Because of the complexity of these risks and policy shifts, and the characteristics and heterogeneity of different regional financial markets, the impacts of shock from these risks are intuitively diverse, with practical implications for portfolio management.
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Stavros Degiannakis and Apostolos Kiohos
The Basel Committee regulations require the estimation of value-at-risk (VaR) at 99 percent confidence level for a ten-trading-day-ahead forecasting horizon. The paper provides a…
Abstract
Purpose
The Basel Committee regulations require the estimation of value-at-risk (VaR) at 99 percent confidence level for a ten-trading-day-ahead forecasting horizon. The paper provides a multivariate modelling framework for multi-period VaR estimates for leptokurtic and asymmetrically distributed real estate portfolio returns. The purpose of the paper is to estimate accurate ten-day-ahead 99%VaR forecasts for real estate markets along with stock markets for seven countries across the world (the USA, the UK, Germany, Japan, Australia, Hong Kong and Singapore) following the Basel Committee requirements for financial regulation.
Design/methodology/approach
A 14-dimensional multivariate Diag-VECH model for seven equity indices and their relative real estate indices is estimated. The authors evaluate the VaR forecasts over a period of two weeks in calendar time, or ten-trading-days, and at 99 percent confidence level based on the Basle Committee on Banking Supervision requirements.
Findings
The Basel regulations require ten-day-ahead 99%VaR forecasts. This is the first study that provides successful evidence for ten-day-ahead 99%VaR estimations for real estate markets. Additionally, the authors provide evidence that there is a statistically significant relationship between the magnitude of the ten-day-ahead 99%VaR and the level of dynamic correlation for real estate and stock market indices; a valuable recommendation for risk managers who forecast risk across markets.
Practical implications
Risk managers, investors and financial institutions require dynamic multi-period VaR forecasts that will take into account properties of financial time series. Such accurate dynamic forecasts lead to successful decisions for controlling market risks.
Originality/value
This paper is the first approach which models simultaneously the volatility and VaR estimates for real estate and stock markets from the USA, Europe and Asia-Pacific over a period of more than 20 years. Additionally, the local correlation between stock and real estate indices has statistically significant explanatory power in estimating the ten-day-ahead 99%VaR.
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Radoslaw Wisniewski and Justyna Brzezicka
This paper aims to analyse globalisation, localisation and glocalisation on the real estate market and define the characteristic features of a glocal real estate market (GREM)…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to analyse globalisation, localisation and glocalisation on the real estate market and define the characteristic features of a glocal real estate market (GREM). The GREM involves real estate properties and real estate products, as well as linking the local and global dimensions of real estate market. Further aims of the study were to provide a methodology for developing the glocal real estate market index (GREMI), and compare selected European markets by analysing their glocalisation potential.
Design/methodology/approach
A novel method of identifying and assessing the GREM was prepared in the work. The methodology provides tools for calculating the GREMI. This is an index based on a few dozen variables from various thematic scopes, describing the glocalisation potential of a selected market, calibrated to a range <0, 1>. GREMI values were calculated for 12 countries, which accessed European Union (EU) in 2004. The sample covers period from 2004 to 2017.
Findings
The study shows that the GREMI continues to increase in all countries over time and the results are becoming synchronised. Romania is a country with the highest number of minimum GREMI values in all years (2004–2017). The highest values of the GREMI were determined in Estonia over the period of nine years (2004–2006, 2008 and 2013–2017).
Research limitations/implications
The prepared index may be applied to analyse different real estate markets, though the necessity to select an identical set of variables for analysis to allow for comparing between markets is a limitation for applying the method. The actual selection of variables is also a study limitation, which was of an opening nature to research in this scope and may be disputable.
Originality/value
This paper provides the original methodology of the GREMI index for countries joining the EU from 2004 onwards.
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Tien Foo Sing and Zhuang Yao Tan
Understanding correlations between stock and direct real estate returns, which is the key factor that determines diversification benefits in a portfolio, helps formulate and…
Abstract
Purpose
Understanding correlations between stock and direct real estate returns, which is the key factor that determines diversification benefits in a portfolio, helps formulate and implement better investors' asset allocation and risk management strategies. The past studies find that direct real estate returns have a low unconditionally (long‐run) correlation with the returns of equities. However, assuming that such correlation is constant throughout all periods is implausible. The purpose of this study is to test the time‐varying correlations of returns between general stocks and direct real estate.
Design/methodology/approach
This study uses the dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) model, which is a simplified version of the multivariate generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, proposed by Engle to test the time‐varying correlations between stock and direct real estate returns in six markets, which include the USA, the UK, Ireland, Australia, Hong Kong and Singapore.
Findings
The empirical results show significant time‐varying effects in the conditional covariance between stock returns and direct real estate returns. The results vary across different real estate sub‐sectors, and across different countries. It is observed that the conditional covariance increases in the boom markets, but becomes weaker in the post‐crisis periods. The authors observed significant jumps in the conditional covariance between the two asset markets in Singapore and Hong Kong in the post‐1977 Asian Financial crisis periods and in the post‐2007 US Sub‐prime crisis periods.
Originality/value
The past studies find that direct real estate returns have a low unconditionally (long‐run) correlation with the returns of equities. However, assuming that such correlation is constant throughout all periods is implausible. This study fills in the gap by using the dynamic conditional correlation models to allow for time‐varying effects in the correlations between stock and real estate returns.
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Nhung Thi Nguyen, An Tuan Nguyen and Dinh Trung Nguyen
This paper aims to examine the effects of investor sentiment on the development of the real estate corporate bond market in Vietnam.
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to examine the effects of investor sentiment on the development of the real estate corporate bond market in Vietnam.
Design/methodology/approach
The research uses an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model with quarterly data. Additionally, the study employs Google Trends search data (GVSI) related to topics such as “Real Estate” and “Corporate Bond” to construct a sentiment index.
Findings
The empirical outcomes reveal that real estate market sentiment improves the growth of the real estate corporate bond market, while stock market sentiment reduces it. Also, there is evidence of a long-run negative effect of corporate bond market sentiment on the total value of real estate bond issuance. Further empirical research evidences the short-term effect of sentiment and economic factors on corporate bond development in the real estate industry.
Research limitations/implications
Due to difficulties in collecting data, this paper has the limited sample of 54 valid quarterly observations. Moreover, the sentiment index based on Google search volume data only reflects the interest level of investors, not their attitudes.
Practical implications
These results yield important implications for policymakers in respect of strengthening the corporate bond market platform and maintaining stability in macroeconomic and monetary policies in order to promote efficient and sustainable market development.
Social implications
The study offers some suggestions for regulators and governments to improve the real estate corporate bond market.
Originality/value
This is the first quantitative study to examine the effect of sentiment factors on real estate corporate bond development in Vietnam.
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Deevarshan Naidoo, Peter Brian Denton Moores-Pitt and Joseph Olorunfemi Akande
Understanding which market to invest in for a well-diversified portfolio is fundamental in economies that are highly vulnerable to fluctuations in exchange rates. Extant…
Abstract
Purpose
Understanding which market to invest in for a well-diversified portfolio is fundamental in economies that are highly vulnerable to fluctuations in exchange rates. Extant literature that has considered phenomenon hardly juxtapose the markets. The purpose of this study is to examine the effects of exchange rate volatility on the Stock and Real Estate market of South Africa. The essence is to determine whether the fluctuations in the exchange rate influence the markets prices differently.
Design/methodology/approach
The Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity [GARCH (1.1)] model was used in establishing the effect of exchange rate volatility on both markets. This study used monthly South African data between 2000 and 2020.
Findings
The results of this study showed that increased exchange rate volatility increases stock market volatility but decreases real-estate market volatility, both of which revealed weak influences from the exchange rates volatility.
Practical implications
This study has implication for policy in using the exchange rate as a policy tool to attract foreign portfolio investment. The weak volatility transmission from the exchange rate market to the stock and real estate market indicates that there is prospect for foreign investors to diversify their investments in these two markets.
Originality/value
This study investigated which of the assets market, stock or housing market do better in volatile exchange rate conditions in South Africa.
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Haobo Zou, Mansoora Ahmed, Syed Ali Raza and Rija Anwar
Monetary policy has major impacts on macroeconomic indicators of the country. Accordingly, uncertainty regarding monetary policy shifts can cause challenges and risks for…
Abstract
Purpose
Monetary policy has major impacts on macroeconomic indicators of the country. Accordingly, uncertainty regarding monetary policy shifts can cause challenges and risks for businesses, financial markets and investors. Thus, the purpose of this study is to investigate how real estate market volatility responds to monetary policy uncertainty.
Design/methodology/approach
The GARCH-MIDAS model is applied in this study to investigate the nexus between monetary policy uncertainty and real estate market volatility. This model was fundamentally instituted to accommodate low-frequency variables.
Findings
The results of this study reveal that increased monetary policy uncertainty highly affects the volatility in real estate market during the peak period of COVID-19 as compared to full sample period and COVID-19 recovery period; hence, a significant decline is evident in real estate market volatility during crisis.
Originality/value
This study is particularly focused on peak and recovery period of COVID-19 considering the geographical region of Greece, Japan and the USA. This study provides a complete perspective on the nexus between monetary policy uncertainty and real estate markets volatility in three distinct economic views.
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Ebenezer Nana Banyin Harrison and Wi-Suk Kwon
This study aims to explore how brands use brand personification techniques in real-time marketing on social media, particularly Twitter, and examine how these techniques impact…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to explore how brands use brand personification techniques in real-time marketing on social media, particularly Twitter, and examine how these techniques impact consumer engagement, moderated by brand-event congruence levels.
Design/methodology/approach
Data included 464 tweets posted by 95 brands around three large events in 2019. The types of brand personification techniques and the level of brand-event congruence applied by the tweets were content-analyzed, and regression analyses were conducted to examine their linkages to consumer engagement metrics.
Findings
Results confirmed the use of diverse personification techniques in brands’ real-time marketing tweets as in the previous literature. The study also revealed a new personification technique, tacit expression, not reported in previous literature. The study also showed that the overall effectiveness of multimedia-based (vs caption-based) personification techniques in increasing consumer engagement on social media was greater, but their relative effectiveness varied depending on whether or not the event was functionally congruent with the brand.
Practical implications
The findings offer valuable suggestions to brand managers regarding prioritizing brand personification techniques and aligning brands’ social media marketing with real-time events to maximize the effectiveness of real-time marketing in boosting consumer engagement.
Originality/value
This research offers insights into the dynamic effects of different brand personification techniques in the new context of real-time marketing, extending the scope of literature on brand personification and anthropomorphism. The revelation of a new type of brand personification not captured in the extant literature is also a significant contribution.
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