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The degree of development and the way to identify a fiscal shock matter in evaluating the effects of the fiscal policy. This paper contributes to the debate on the effects of a fiscal expansion on private consumption and the real effective exchange rate.

This paper uses a sign-restriction method to identify a fiscal shock in the panel structural VAR analysis in the context of both developed and developing countries.

The authors’ find that (1) private consumption increases in response to a positive government spending shock in both groups, yet such consumption effect is greater in developing than industrial countries; (2) the response of real effective exchange rate to the government spending shock varies across groups: it depreciates in developed countries and appreciates in developing countries; (3) trade balance improves in both groups.

This study sheds light on the differential effects of fiscal shock on consumption and real exchange rate in both developed and developing economies.

This paper aims to examine the effects of the real exchange rate on trade balance in Algeria and investigates whether it represents a viable tool to sustain and improve trade performance using the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) estimation technique and data from Algeria over the period 1980–2018. This study also highlights the role of trading partners with large income endowments in enhancing the trade balance.

The NARDL model is used to unveil potential short and long run nonlinear responses of the trade balance to shocks in real exchange rates and detect whether these responses are different in terms of sign and magnitude. The paper also provides a dynamic multiplier analysis that tests the existence of a J-Curve pattern in Algeria with several policy recommendations.

The findings confirm the existence of a J-curve pattern in Algeria where domestic currency depreciation will worsen the trade balance in the short run and improve it in the long run. The authors also find that the asymmetrical effect of real exchange rate on trade balance is different in sign and magnitude. Finally, the results indicate that an increase in trade partners' income increases the trade balance in Algeria. The findings are of utmost importance with several policy implications.

While some works investigated the nonlinear response of trade balance to real exchange rate movements, their results remain inconclusive and seem to depend on the characteristics of the country/region of study. Moreover, the role of trade partners and their potential impact on trade balance has been relatively overlooked in the literature. The authors fill this gap by examining the asymmetric impacts of real exchange rate and the effect of trade partners' income on trade balance in Algeria.

The purpose of this paper is to assess the long-run and short-run drivers of real house prices in Nigeria from 1991Q1 to 2020Q4.

Vector autoregression and cointegration tests were used to assess the key drivers of Nigeria’s real house prices in the long run and short run.

The empirical findings revealed that household disposable income is the most important determinant of house prices in Nigeria. House prices increased by 1.6% and 60.8% in response to a 1% increase in disposable income in the long run and short run, respectively, while real mortgage credits pushed up house prices by 5% and have no long-run effects, suggesting that most Nigerians depend on their money income rather than credits in securing a home. In addition, prices of oil sector products and real interest rates had negative and significant relationship with house prices, while positive correlations were found for real effective exchange rate and real housing investments regardless of the time horizon. The impact of construction costs and cement prices was also documented.

This is likely a pioneering study of its kind to focus on the determinants of real house prices in Nigeria. It is probably the first study, the best of the author’s knowledge, to empirically examine the impact of the oil sector on house prices in the country.

The use of exchange rate policies to stimulate economic growth (EG) has been the major macroeconomic policy of many economies. Hence, the attention of researchers and policymakers was drawn to the effect of undervaluation and/or overvaluation of currencies on sustainable EG. However, less attention has been paid to the importance of quality of economic institutions in shaping the relationship between exchange rate and EG. This study aims to explore the role of institutions of exchange rate and EG in South Africa

This study, therefore, examines the role of economic institutions in the real exchange rate economic growth nexus by using auto regressive distributed lags model and vector error correction model for causality during the period 1971 to 2018. Also, Bayer and Hank method has applied for cointegration between the variables.

The findings show that both real exchange rate and economic institutions have a negative effect on EG in both short-run and long-run. This implies that undervaluation has a negative effect on EG in South Africa. Therefore, the study concludes that undervaluation has a negative effect on EG in South Africa particularly when the quality of economic institutions is accounted for. The finding supports the J-curve hypothesis but is contrary to the Rodrik hypothesis. Hence, devaluation is not a desirable exchange rate policy for the South African economy.

The study, therefore, recommends that developing countries like South Africa should focus on other viable exchange rate policies such as rather than undervaluation of currency to enhance EG.

The volatility of exchange rate has generally been sighted as a primary cause for various shocks and instability in international trade of Ghana as witnessed over the years and most especially in recent times. Hence, owing to the increasing trade levels between Ghana and Ghana's global trading partners, the study aims to investigate if the trade–exchange rate volatility nexus in Ghana supports the positive, negative or ambiguous hypotheses?

The study investigates the effects of Ghana's exchange rate volatility on international trade by designing import and export equations to estimate both short- and long-run specifications of the effect and employing the multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) with Baba, Engle, Kraft and Kroner (BEKK) specification developed by Engle and Kroner (1995) as a further check for the robustness of the findings. Monthly data between 1993 and 2017 on the real effective exchange rates of Ghana's trade with 143 trading partners were taken as the series for modeling the volatility using GARCH andexponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (EGARCH) models.

The empirical results show that the volatility of exchange rate negatively impact export performances in the Ghanian economy. On the other hand, there was no sufficient evidence to support the observed positive effect of exchange rate volatility on imports, as the effects were only significant at 10% level in the long run. Thus, it is concluded that the finding cannot confirm a relationship between volatility and import. Thus, the results present differences in the direction of the effect of exchange rate volatility on imports and exports in the context of the Ghanaian economy.

Considering the fragility of the Ghanaian economy and Ghana's macro-economic indicators, the study points at the crucial need for more integration of well-informed trade policies within the country's macro-economic policy framework to contain the impacts of exchange rate volatility on trade performances.

The study contributes to literature by scope and method. More specifically, empirical studies have failed or provided little evidence uniquely on the Ghanaian economy's reaction to exchange rate volatility on the country's imports and exports. Additionally, most of the existing empirical studies measure exchange rate volatility using the standard deviation of the moving averages of the logarithmic transformation of exchange rates. This method is criticized because the method is unsuccessful in capturing the effects of potential booms and bursts of the exchange rate. The authors' study circumvents for these highlighted pitfalls.

The study contributes to literature by scope and method. More specifically, empirical studies have failed or provided little evidence uniquely on the Ghanaian economy's reaction to exchange rate volatility on the country's imports and exports. Thus, the study chat a course for socio-economic dynamic of Ghanaian economy.

The study contributes to literature by its scope and method, as extant empirical studies have provided little evidence specifically on the Ghanaian economy's reaction to exchange rate volatility. Additionally, most of the existing empirical studies measure exchange rate volatility using the standard deviation of the moving averages of the logarithmic transformation of exchange rates. This method is criticized because of the method's inadequacies in capturing the effects of potential booms and bursts of the exchange rate. The study thereby essentially circumvents for these highlighted pitfalls.

This study investigates if the causal relationships between the exchange rates and selected inbound markets’ tourism demand are temporary or permanent, and compares market reactions in Türkiye.

Tourism demand is examined with a regional approach, focusing on the geographical markets, namely Europe, Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) members and Asian countries, as the top inbound tourism markets, in addition to the total number of inbound tourists to Türkiye. Granger, frequency-domain causality, asymmetric Toda–Yamamoto, and asymmetric frequency-domain causality tests were employed to investigate and compare markets on exchange rate–tourism demand relationship for 2008M01-2020M02.

The results indicate that exchange rates affect European tourism demand both in the short and long run. The meaning of this Frequency Domain Causality (FDC) analysis finding shows that the exchange rate has both permanent and temporary effects on European tourists. The relationships are statistically insignificant for CIS members and Asian countries. The exchange rates also permanently affect total inbound tourism demand, but the independent variable has no short-run (temporary) effects on total demand. Asymmetric causality tests confirmed a permanent causality relationship from the positive and negative components of exchange rates to the positive and negative components of European and total tourism demand.

The Granger causality test provides information on the presence of a causal relation, while the FDC test, an extended version of Granger causality, enlightens the short- (temporary) and long-run (permanent) relationships and allows for analyzing the duration of the impact. In addition, asymmetric causality relationships are also investigated in the study. Besides, this study is the first in the literature to examine the relationship between tourism demand and the exchange rate regionally (continentally) for Türkiye.

The Polish economy has undergone major challenges and changes over the past few decades. The country's trade flows, in particular, have become more firmly tied to the country’s Western neighbors as they have grown in volume. This study examines Poland's trade balances in ten Standard International Trade Classification (SITC) sectors versus the United States of America, first testing for and isolating structural breaks in each time series. These breaks are then included in a set of the cointegration models to examine their macroeconomic determinants.

Linear and nonlinear and nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag models, both with and without dummies corresponding to structural breaks, are estimated.

One key finding is that incorporating these breaks reduces the significance of the real exchange rate in the model, supporting the hypothesis that this variable already incorporates important information. It also results in weaker evidence for cointegration of all variables in certain sectors.

This study looks only at one pair of countries, without any third-country effects.

An important country pair's trade relations is examined; in addition, the real exchange rate is shown to incorporate economic information that results in structural changes in the economy. The paper extends the existing literature by conducting an analysis of Poland's trade balances with the USA, which have not been studied in such a context so far. A strong point is a broad methodology that lets compare the results the authors obtained with different kinds of models, both linear and nonlinear ones, with and without structural breaks.

In this paper we examine the validity of the J-curve hypothesis in four Southeast Asian economies (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand) over the 1980–2017 period.

We employ the linear autoregressive distributed lags (ARDL) model that captures the dynamic relationships between the variables and additionally use the nonlinear ARDL model that considers the asymmetric effects of the real exchange rate changes.

The estimated models were diagnostically sound, and the variables were found to be cointegrated. However, with the exception of Malaysia, the short- and long-run relationships did not attest to the presence of the J-curve effect. The trade flows were affected asymmetrically in Malaysia and the Philippines, suggesting the appropriateness of nonlinear ARDL in these countries.

The previous research tended to examine the effects of the real exchange rate changes on the agricultural trade balance and specifically the J-curve effect (deterioration of the trade balance followed by its improvement) in the developed economies and rarely in the developing ones. In this paper, we address this omission.

This study aims to construct alternative models to establish the dynamic relationship between exchange rates and housing affordability by estimating both the short- and long-run relationship between exchange rates and housing affordability for 18 OECD countries from 1975Q1 to 2022Q4. After that, this study demonstrates how this nexus behaves during high and low inflation regimes and turbulent times.

This study uses the panel autoregressive distributed lag technique to examine the nexus between housing affordability to capture the distinct characteristics of the sample countries and estimate various short- and long-run dynamics in the relationship between housing affordability and exchange rate.

Exchange rate appreciation improves housing affordability in the short run, whereas this connection tends to dissipate in the long run. Moreover, inflation can worsen housing affordability during turbulent times, such as the global financial crisis, in both the short and long run. Ignoring these changes in the relationship between exchange rates and housing affordability during turbulent times can lead to incorrect conclusions.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is the first to examine the association between exchange rates and housing affordability by demonstrating how these variables behave in high and low inflation regimes and turbulent times.

This paper assesses the impact of tax reforms on tax revenue mobilisation in Ghana.

The autoregressive distributed lag model together with dynamic ordinary least squares and fully modified least squares techniques were employed on a time-series data spanning from 1980–2018. Exploiting data from IMFs monitoring of fund arrangements database, an index of tax reforms is constructed as a function of the number of successfully implemented tax-related reforms and policy measures per year over the study period.

Having established the presence of co-integration between tax revenue and its determinants, this paper finds strong evidence that tax-related reforms exert positive and significant impact on tax revenue generation in Ghana. Among other covariates, the results show that the tax base (real GDP), public debt and education (human capital index) significantly boosts tax revenue in the long run.

The success of tax reforms in boosting revenue mobilisation has been examined in light of the buoyancy and elasticity of the tax system in Ghana, albeit with little emphasis on the extent to which tax reforms contribute to tax revenue mobilisation from econometric perspective. This paper fills this gap in the literature by analysing the impact of tax reforms on tax revenue mobilisation in Ghana. As a recommendation, well-designed and implemented tax reforms and policies aimed at increasing the tax base, education and effective utilisation of funds from public debt promise to be instrumental in boosting tax revenue in Ghana.