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Book part
Publication date: 23 May 2019

Andrey I. Pilipenko, Vasiliy I. Dikhtiar, Nina M. Baranova and Zoya A. Pilipenko

The chapter contains a methodology for formalized evaluation of the public fiscal policy from the view point of its impact on the financial stability of a national economy using…

Abstract

The chapter contains a methodology for formalized evaluation of the public fiscal policy from the view point of its impact on the financial stability of a national economy using the example of the Russian Federation and taking into account the fiscal multipliers’ effects. The significance of this problem is predetermined by recent trends in Russia’s development, when the national economy legs twice behind the world indicators. Taking into account the importance of the Russian budget system as a mechanism for the redistribution of gross domestic product (GDP), the financial stability safeguarding has been connected with the public finance sustainability and with the federal budget revenues and expenditures equilibrium. There are used the methodology of analysis of economic systems’ dynamic factors of financial stability as well as fiscal multipliers’ effects, aiming at managing national economy’s long-term development with the ultimate purpose to maintain the GDP growth rates. Taking into account the fiscal multipliers’ values, the model comparisons of the macroeconomics and budget parameters’ dynamics prove the necessity of the budget consolidation policy in 2018–2020 provided that the budget expenditures efficiency increases. The latter has been proved by modeling dependences represented by the fiscal multipliers’ effects in terms of national financial stability.

Article
Publication date: 28 February 2023

Zeqi Liu, Zefeng Tong and Zhonghua Zhang

This study examines the differences in the economic stimulus effects, transmission mechanisms, and output multipliers of government consumption, government traditional investment…

Abstract

Purpose

This study examines the differences in the economic stimulus effects, transmission mechanisms, and output multipliers of government consumption, government traditional investment, and government science and technology investment.

Design/methodology/approach

This study constructs and estimates a New Keynesian model of endogenous technological progress embedded in the research and development (R&D) and technology transfer sectors. Using Chinese macroeconomic time series data from 1996 to 2019, this study calibrates and estimates the model and analyzes the impulse response function and a counterfactual simulation of expenditure structure adjustment.

Findings

The results show that compared with the traditional dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, the endogenous process of technological progress amplifies the impact of government consumption shock and traditional government investment shock on the macroeconomy, leading to greater economic cycle fluctuations. As government investment in science and technology has positive external spillover effects on firm R&D activities and the application of innovation achievements, it can promote more sustainable economic growth than government consumption and traditional investment in the long run.

Originality/value

This study constructs an extended New Keynesian model with different types of government spending, which includes endogenous technological progress within the R&D and technology transfer sectors, thereby linking fiscal policy, business cycle fluctuations and long-term economic growth. This model can study the macroeconomic impact of fiscal expenditure structure adjustment when fiscal expansion is limited. In the Bayesian estimation of model parameters, this study not only uses macroeconomic variables but also adds a sequence of private R&D investment.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 13 May 2019

Rosaria Rita Canale and Rajmund Mirdala

This chapter is devoted to fiscal policy theory and to how its evolution influenced the policy principles implemented from the end of the World War II to the present. It shows how…

Abstract

This chapter is devoted to fiscal policy theory and to how its evolution influenced the policy principles implemented from the end of the World War II to the present. It shows how the theoretical foundations evolved, from the Keynesian theory according to which public expenditure was conceived as an instrument to sustain aggregate demand and achieve full employment, to the present theoretical framework in which, following the intertemporal approach, it has been downgraded to an external shock. The public debt issue is examined with the aim of explaining why sound public finance represents a primary policy objective in the Eurozone.

Details

Fiscal and Monetary Policy in the Eurozone: Theoretical Concepts and Empirical Evidence
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78743-793-7

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 23 May 2019

Yan Vaslavskiy and Irina Vaslavskaya

The chapter is devoted to the factors aimed at optimizing the partnership of public and private sectors in the sphere of public infrastructure development. In modern conditions of…

Abstract

The chapter is devoted to the factors aimed at optimizing the partnership of public and private sectors in the sphere of public infrastructure development. In modern conditions of economic slowdown and budget consolidation in Russia, the infrastructure has become the most important driver of economic growth and public–private partnership (PPP) – the most perspective form of cooperation of public and private investors of infrastructure projects. PPP interpretation as a structural relationship of economic system allows the authors to model optimal combination of formal and informal institutions in order to stimulate long-term economic growth. It becomes promising to model replacement of budget funds by private investment to ensure positive impact on the Russian development despite the budget consolidation. It could only be achieved in the case of formal institutionalization of appropriate conditions for private investors as to low transactional costs and attractive financial parameters. There have been determined some PPP standards connected with public infrastructure projects in order to reduce capital expenditures of the budget funds and increase the inflow of private investment. The authors have managed to obtain model estimates and graphic interpretation of government expenditures’ efficiency increase that could help to structure the fiscal conditions to induce positive multiplier effect as a result of PPP forms improvement in the public infrastructure development.

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 29 December 2021

Youssef Alami, Issam El Idrissi, Ahmed Bousselhami, Radouane Raouf and Hassane Boujettou

The present paper aims to evaluate the structural impact of exogenously induced fiscal shocks on the Moroccan economy. This entails an analysis of the effect on the GDP of…

1626

Abstract

Purpose

The present paper aims to evaluate the structural impact of exogenously induced fiscal shocks on the Moroccan economy. This entails an analysis of the effect on the GDP of COVID-19-induced fiscal shocks manifesting in terms of budgetary revenues and expenditures. A key aspect of this analysis addresses the size of the tax and fiscal multipliers.

Design/methodology/approach

The study examines the structural relationship between five variables during the period between Q1 2009 and Q2 2020 using an SVAR approach that allows for a dynamic interaction between ordinary expenditures and revenues on a quarterly basis.

Findings

Positive structural shocks on public spending are likely to negatively impact economic growth. Negative economic growth, in turn, will damage price levels and interest rates, mainly over the long term. However, public-revenue-multiplier-associated shocks exceed these price- and interest-rate multiplier-associated shocks. Indeed, a structural shock to ordinary revenues can have a positive but insignificant impact on the GDP stemming from the ensuing decrease in the government budget deficit that proceeds from the increase in government revenues.

Originality/value

This is one of the first studies in the Moroccan context to assess the impact of the current worldwide pandemic on public finances. In addition, this study highlights the importance of boosting economic recovery through public spending.

Details

Journal of Business and Socio-economic Development, vol. 2 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2635-1374

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 5 February 2024

Karlo Marques Junior

This paper seeks to explore the sensitivity of these parameters and their impact on fiscal policy outcomes. We use the existing literature to establish possible ranges for each…

18

Abstract

Purpose

This paper seeks to explore the sensitivity of these parameters and their impact on fiscal policy outcomes. We use the existing literature to establish possible ranges for each parameter, and we examine how changes within these ranges can alter the outcomes of fiscal policy. In this way, we aim to highlight the importance of these parameters in the formulation and evaluation of fiscal policy.

Design/methodology/approach

The role of fiscal policy, its effects and multipliers continues to be a subject of intense debate in macroeconomics. Despite adopting a New Keynesian approach within a macroeconomic model, the reactions of macroeconomic variables to fiscal shocks can vary across different contexts and theoretical frameworks. This paper aims to investigate these diverse reactions by conducting a sensitivity analysis of parameters. Specifically, the study examines how key variables respond to fiscal shocks under different parameter settings. By analyzing the behavioral dynamics of these variables, this research contributes to the ongoing discussion on fiscal policy. The findings offer valuable insights to enrich the understanding of the complex relationship between fiscal shocks and macroeconomic outcomes, thus facilitating informed policy debates.

Findings

This paper aims to investigate key elements of New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models. The focus is on the calibration of parameters and their impact on macroeconomic variables, such as output and inflation. The study also examines how different parameter settings affect the response of monetary policy to fiscal measures. In conclusion, this study has relied on theoretical exploration and a comprehensive review of existing literature. The parameters and their relationships have been analyzed within a robust theoretical framework, offering valuable insights for further research on how these factors influence model forecasts and inform policy recommendations derived from New Keynesian DSGE models. Moving forward, it is recommended that future work includes empirical analyses to test the reliability and effectiveness of parameter calibrations in real-world conditions. This will contribute to enhancing the accuracy and relevance of DSGE models for economic policy decision-making.

Originality/value

This study is motivated by the aim to provide a deeper understanding of the roles macroeconomic model parameters play concerning responses to expansionary fiscal policies and the subsequent reactions of monetary authorities. Comprehensive reviews that encompass this breadth of relationships within a single text are rare in the literature, making this work a valuable contribution to stimulating discussions on macroeconomic policies.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 13 May 2019

Rosaria Rita Canale and Rajmund Mirdala

The role of money and monetary policy of the central bank in pursuing macroeconomic stability has significantly changed over the period since the end of World War II…

Abstract

The role of money and monetary policy of the central bank in pursuing macroeconomic stability has significantly changed over the period since the end of World War II. Globalization, liberalization, integration, and transition processes generally shaped the crucial milestones of the macroeconomic development and substantial features of economic policy and its framework in Europe. Policy-driven changes together with variety of exogenous shocks significantly affected the key features of macroeconomic environment on the European continent that fashioned the framework and design of monetary policies.

This chapter examines the key basis of the central bank’s monetary policy on its way to pursue and preserve the internal and external stability of the purchasing power of money. Substantial elements of the monetary policy like objectives and strategies are not only generally introduced but also critically discussed according to their accuracy, suitability, and reliability in the changing macroeconomic conditions. Brief overview of the Eurozone common monetary policy milestones and the past Eastern bloc countries’ experience with a variety of exchange rate regimes provides interesting empirical evidence on origins and implications of vital changes in the monetary policy conduction in Europe and the Eurozone.

Details

Fiscal and Monetary Policy in the Eurozone: Theoretical Concepts and Empirical Evidence
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78743-793-7

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 13 February 2023

Yu Li and Xiaoyang Zhu

The degree of development and the way to identify a fiscal shock matter in evaluating the effects of the fiscal policy. This paper contributes to the debate on the effects of a…

Abstract

Purpose

The degree of development and the way to identify a fiscal shock matter in evaluating the effects of the fiscal policy. This paper contributes to the debate on the effects of a fiscal expansion on private consumption and the real effective exchange rate.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper uses a sign-restriction method to identify a fiscal shock in the panel structural VAR analysis in the context of both developed and developing countries.

Findings

The authors’ find that (1) private consumption increases in response to a positive government spending shock in both groups, yet such consumption effect is greater in developing than industrial countries; (2) the response of real effective exchange rate to the government spending shock varies across groups: it depreciates in developed countries and appreciates in developing countries; (3) trade balance improves in both groups.

Originality/value

This study sheds light on the differential effects of fiscal shock on consumption and real exchange rate in both developed and developing economies.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 29 April 2020

Elva Bova and Violeta Klyviene

This study analyses the impact of fiscal shocks on GDP, inflation and interest rates in Portugal over 1995–2017.

Abstract

Purpose

This study analyses the impact of fiscal shocks on GDP, inflation and interest rates in Portugal over 1995–2017.

Design/methodology/approach

Multipliers are estimated using a structural VAR (SVAR) a' la Blanchard and Perotti (2002) using OECD elasticities. Changes in direct and indirect taxes are considered for fiscal shocks on the revenue side and changes in public consumption, investment and transfers for fiscal shocks on the expenditure side.

Findings

The analysis finds small tax multipliers and larger government consumption multipliers for growth, while short-term responses to shocks in transfer and investment spending are found to be negligible. Fiscal shocks have an ambiguous impact on inflation, and fiscal shocks of an expansionary nature are found to trigger declines in interest rates. The results are robust to different orderings of variables, to the selection of an alternative time period which excludes the financial crisis and to an alternative estimation technique.

Research limitations/implications

A major limitation of the study relates to the relatively short time period which does not allow capturing the impact of possible structural breaks.

Practical implications

This analysis is relevant for countries, like Portugal, that display high debt levels and volatile market sentiment and lack an independent monetary policy.

Originality/value

Overall, the analysis of output multipliers compares well with some other studies conducted on the Portuguese economy and confirms the importance of the disposable income channel in the transmission of fiscal shocks to the rest of the economy. The study is one of the first to focus also on the implications of fiscal shocks on inflation and long-term interest rates. It is the first to apply the local projection method to estimate multipliers in Portugal.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 47 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 15 October 2019

Maxime Desmarais-Tremblay and Marianne Johnson

Alvin Hansen and John Williams’ Fiscal Policy Seminar at Harvard University is widely regarded as a key mechanism for the spread of Keynesianism in the United States. An original…

Abstract

Alvin Hansen and John Williams’ Fiscal Policy Seminar at Harvard University is widely regarded as a key mechanism for the spread of Keynesianism in the United States. An original and regular participant, Richard A. Musgrave was invited to prepare remarks for the fiftieth anniversary of the seminar in 1988. These were never published, though a copy was filed with Musgrave’s papers at Princeton University. Their reproduction here is important for several reasons. First, it is one of the last reminiscences of the original participants. Second, the remarks make an important contribution to our understanding of the Harvard School of macro-fiscal policy. Third, the remarks provide interesting insights into Musgrave’s views on national economic policymaking as well as the intersection between theory and practice. The reminiscence demonstrates the importance of the seminar in shifting Musgrave’s research focus and moving him to a more pragmatic approach to public finance.

Details

Including a Symposium on Robert Heilbroner at 100
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78769-869-7

Keywords

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