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Article
Publication date: 9 November 2015

Limited higher order beliefs and the welfare effects of public information

Camille Cornand and Frank Heinemann

In games with strategic complementarities, public information about the state of the world has a larger impact on equilibrium actions than private information of the same…

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Abstract

Purpose

In games with strategic complementarities, public information about the state of the world has a larger impact on equilibrium actions than private information of the same precision, because the former is more informative about the likely behavior of others. This may lead to welfare-reducing “overreactions” to public signals as shown by Morris and Shin (2002). Recent experiments on games with strategic complementarities show that subjects attach a lower weight to public signals than theoretically predicted. The purpose of this paper is to reconsider the welfare effects of public signals accounting for the weights observed in experiments.

Design/methodology/approach

Aggregate behavior observed in experiments on games with strategic complementarities can be explained by a cognitive hierarchy model where subjects employ limited levels of reasoning. They respond in a rational way to the non-strategic part of a game and they account for other players responding rationally, but they neglect that other players also account for others’ rationality. This paper analyzes the welfare effects of public information under such limited levels of reasoning.

Findings

In the model by Morris and Shin (2002) public information is always welfare improving if strategies are derived from such low reasoning levels. The optimal degree of publicity is decreasing in the levels of reasoning. For the observed average level of reasoning, full transparency is optimal, if public information is more precise than private information. If the policy maker has instruments that are perfect substitutes to private actions, the government should secretly respond to its information without disclosing or signaling it to the private sector independent of the degree of private agents’ rationality.

Originality/value

This paper takes experimental evidence back to theory and shows that the main result obtained by the theory under rational behavior breaks down if theory accounts for the bounded rationality observed in experiments.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 42 no. 6
Type: Research Article
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/JES-08-2015-0142
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

  • Strategic uncertainty
  • Coordination games
  • Levels of reasoning
  • Private information
  • Public information
  • Higher-order beliefs

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Article
Publication date: 1 April 2006

Fund management, intellectual capital, intangibles and private disclosure

John Holland

This paper aims to explore how fund managers (FMs) deal with major problems of ignorance and uncertainty in stock selection and in asset allocation decisions.

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Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to explore how fund managers (FMs) deal with major problems of ignorance and uncertainty in stock selection and in asset allocation decisions.

Design/methodology/approach

Interviews were conducted with 40 fund managers in the period October 1997 to January 2000. A seven stage approach was adopted to sift through and process the large volumes of case data. The interview case data formed the basis for identifying common patterns and themes across the cases.

Findings

The case data revealed the nature of this private information agenda concerning intellectual capital or intangibles and the dynamic connections between these variables in the value creation process. The case data provided insight into how the book value and market value gap arose and the special role of information on intangibles and intellectual capital in valuing the company.

Practical implications

The fund management behaviour has important implications for regulatory policy issues on insider information, on corporate disclosure, the corporate governance role of financial institutions, and for the governance of financial institutions.

Originality/value

The paper focuses on issues of importance in an increasingly concentrated and global FM industry.

Details

Managerial Finance, vol. 32 no. 4
Type: Research Article
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/03074350610652242
ISSN: 0307-4358

Keywords

  • Fund management
  • United Kingdom
  • Decision making
  • Assets management

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Article
Publication date: 1 March 2003

Personal social media usage and its impact on administrative accountability: an exploration of theory and practice

Karabi C. Bezboruah and Martinella M. Dryburgh

In the internet era, the boundaries between public and private lives of government employees are often blurred, resulting in enhanced concerns about administrative…

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Abstract

In the internet era, the boundaries between public and private lives of government employees are often blurred, resulting in enhanced concerns about administrative accountability and effectiveness. By adopting a multi-step qualitative methodology involving internet survey and analysis of illustrative examples, this research explores and examines how social media policies could assist in keeping the public and private lives of civil servants distinct. We find that very few public sector agencies have adopted social media policies in an attempt to regulate employee behavior. We conclude that social media sites, both private and official, could be an effective administrative tool if harnessed properly. We offer certain recommendations and strategies based on our findings that could assist in accomplishing the principles of ethical administration.

Details

Journal of Public Budgeting, Accounting & Financial Management, vol. 15 no. 4
Type: Research Article
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/JPBAFM-15-04-2003-B001
ISSN: 1096-3367

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Article
Publication date: 1 March 2012

Personal social media usage and its impact on administrative accountability: An exploration of theory and practice

Karabi C. Bezboruah and Martinella M. Dryburgh

In the internet era, the boundaries between public and private lives of government employees are often blurred, resulting in enhanced concerns about administrative…

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Abstract

In the internet era, the boundaries between public and private lives of government employees are often blurred, resulting in enhanced concerns about administrative accountability and effectiveness. By adopting a multi-step qualitative methodology involving internet survey and analysis of illustrative examples, this research explores and examines how social media policies could assist in keeping the public and private lives of civil servants distinct. We find that very few public sector agencies have adopted social media policies in an attempt to regulate employee behavior. We conclude that social media sites, both private and official, could be an effective administrative tool if harnessed properly. We offer certain recommendations and strategies based on our findings that could assist in accomplishing the principles of ethical administration.

Details

International Journal of Organization Theory & Behavior, vol. 15 no. 4
Type: Research Article
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/IJOTB-15-04-2012-B001
ISSN: 1093-4537

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Book part
Publication date: 12 November 2014

Experiments on Monetary Policy and Central Banking

Camille Cornand and Frank Heinemann

In this article, we survey experiments that are directly related to monetary policy and central banking. We argue that experiments can also be used as a tool for central…

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Abstract

In this article, we survey experiments that are directly related to monetary policy and central banking. We argue that experiments can also be used as a tool for central bankers for bench testing policy measures or rules. We distinguish experiments that analyze the reasons for non-neutrality of monetary policy, experiments in which subjects play the role of central bankers, experiments that analyze the role of central bank communication and its implications, experiments on the optimal implementation of monetary policy, and experiments relevant for monetary policy responses to financial crises. Finally, we mention open issues and raise new avenues for future research.

Details

Experiments in Macroeconomics
Type: Book
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/S0193-230620140000017006
ISBN: 978-1-78441-195-4

Keywords

  • Monetary policy
  • central banking
  • laboratory experiments

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Article
Publication date: 17 February 2012

Firm's information environment and stock liquidity: evidence from Tunisian context

Nadia Loukil and Ouidad Yousfi

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the impact of public and private information of Tunisian firms on stock liquidity.

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the impact of public and private information of Tunisian firms on stock liquidity.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper uses a sample of 41 Tunisian firms listed in Tunis Stock Exchange for the year 2007. Public information disclosed in annual reports and in web sites is measured by two self‐constructed disclosure indexes. To assess private information the authors use imbalance order flows. The stock liquidity proxy used in the study is Liu's multidimensional measure. Ordinary least squares (OLS) regression is applied to model the relationship between firm's information environment and stock liquidity.

Findings

First, the results provide evidence that public and private information are independent. Second, Tunisian investors do not trust the information disclosed in both annual reports and web sites, consequently it has no effect on stock liquidity, in contrast with private information. This result implies that Tunisian investors are overconfident and rely only on their private information.

Practical implications

The paper's findings indicate that Tunisian regulation efforts to enhance corporate transparency are not sufficient. Hence, Tunisian firms need more incentives to disclose more information to investors.

Originality/value

This paper, to the authors’ best knowledge, is the first to investigate the effect of both private and public information on stock liquidity. Moreover, the authors were not limited to annual reports as the only source of public information, as were prior papers, because public information was assessed in both annual reports and corporate web sites.

Details

Journal of Accounting in Emerging Economies, vol. 2 no. 1
Type: Research Article
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/20421161211196111
ISSN: 2042-1168

Keywords

  • Tunisia
  • Stakeholder analysis
  • Investors
  • Annual reports
  • Web sites
  • Information
  • Voluntary disclosure
  • Private information
  • Stock liquidity
  • Emerging markets

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Article
Publication date: 8 June 2012

An empirical analysis of dynamic relationship between stock market and bond market based on information shocks

Qiang Chen, Daolun Chen and YuTing Gong

The purpose of this paper is to empirically analyze the dynamic relationship between stock market and bond market based on the effect of different information shocks.

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to empirically analyze the dynamic relationship between stock market and bond market based on the effect of different information shocks.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper decomposes the information of stock market and bond market into public information and private information. The characteristics of response of stock market and bond market to the information shocks are examined by SVAR model and modified BEKK model.

Findings

The study shows that the information shocks in financial market yield not only the effect on linear asset return but also the effect on nonlinear asset volatility. The public information mainly produces a short effect of return while the private information mainly produces a permanent effect on volume. The interactive relation between stock market and bond market is mainly reliant on the effect of the information shock volatility to market return volatility.

Originality/value

The paper empirically analyzes the influence characteristics of different information shocks, which has some reference value not only for deeply understanding the market microstructure but also for improving the construction of various capital markets.

Details

China Finance Review International, vol. 2 no. 3
Type: Research Article
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/20441391211231042
ISSN: 2044-1398

Keywords

  • Stock markets
  • Bonds
  • Information shocks; Securities market; SVAR model
  • BEKK model

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Book part
Publication date: 29 November 2012

Central Bank and Private Sector's Welfare Under Partial Transparency Versus Publicity: A Two-Player Monetary Policy Game

Emna Trabelsi

This chapter contributes to the continuous debate on the effects of public information. The debate initiated with Morris and Shin (2002) who showed that heightening the…

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Abstract

This chapter contributes to the continuous debate on the effects of public information. The debate initiated with Morris and Shin (2002) who showed that heightening the precision of public information can be detrimental to welfare in a beauty contest framework, because when agents have both private and public information, they may overreact to the public information since it acts as a focal point. If the private agents overreact to public information, then a policy of limited transparency may be warranted. Some researchers suggest partial announcement (limited publicity), others propose to disseminate the public information privately to each agent (limited precision) with some idiosyncratic noise in order to reduce overreaction. Those chapter, however, miss the following fact; they don’t take into account the interaction between private sector and the central bank. We extend those studies by setting the framework as a two-player monetary policy game between the central bank and the private sector by allowing explicitly for a central bank to be one of the many contributors of the public signal. We show (1) how introducing a certain degree of opacity affects both players and determines the conditions under which an intermediate transparent strategy improves the outcome of the private sector, as well as of the central bank. We find that reducing transparency doesn’t affect the two players in the same way. (2) It turns out that respective players’ losses are strictly identical when the central bank implements the optimal degree of transparency or the optimal degree of publicity. We establish then an equivalence relationship in terms of effects between publicity and transparency for both actors.

Details

Transparency and Governance in a Global World
Type: Book
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/S1569-3767(2012)0000013014
ISBN: 978-1-78052-764-2

Keywords

  • Transparency
  • public information
  • monetary policy game
  • central bank

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Book part
Publication date: 22 August 2014

The Impact of Sole and Joint Responsibility on Managers’ Escalation of Commitment to Unprofitable Projects: An Experimental Investigation

Vincent K. Chong and Matt Wan

This chapter addresses the criticisms that escalation of commitment research has focused only on individual (as opposed to team or group) decision-making. It has been…

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Abstract

This chapter addresses the criticisms that escalation of commitment research has focused only on individual (as opposed to team or group) decision-making. It has been suggested that research findings of individual-based decision on managers’ escalation behaviors may not be applicable in today’s business environment which is increasingly dominated by team or group-based decision. Specifically, this chapter examines the effects of information availability (public vs. private information) and type of responsibility (sole and joint responsibility) on managers’ project evaluation decisions. A laboratory experiment was conducted to test the hypotheses developed for this study. The results indicate that, consistent with prior research, project managers exhibited a greater tendency to continue a failing project under private information than public information conditions. In addition, in the private information condition, project managers with joint responsibility for an investment project expressed a greater tendency to continue a failing project than those with sole responsibility. Implications of our results for the design of management control systems are discussed.

Details

Advances in Accounting Behavioral Research
Type: Book
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/S1475-148820140000017000
ISBN: 978-1-78350-445-9

Keywords

  • Escalation of commitment
  • sole responsibility
  • joint responsibility
  • project evaluation decisions

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Article
Publication date: 19 March 2020

How do investors behave in the context of a market crash? Evidence from India

Venkata Narasimha Chary Mushinada

The main aim of this paper is to empirically test at market level, the investors' differential reaction to information, contribution of their confidence level and adaptive…

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Abstract

Purpose

The main aim of this paper is to empirically test at market level, the investors' differential reaction to information, contribution of their confidence level and adaptive behaviour to excessive market volatility in Indian stock market.

Design/methodology/approach

The Bivariate Vector Autoregression and Impulse Response Analysis are used to study whether investors over/under-react to private and public information. EGARCH models are used to study the contribution of investors' over/under-confidence and adaptive behaviour to excessive market volatility.

Findings

The investors over-react to private information and under-react to public information during pre-crash period, become overconfident and contribute to excessive volatility. They under-react to both private and public information during after-crash period, become under-confident and also conform to adaptive market hypothesis (AMH).

Research limitations/implications

The empirical results of the study can help investors to minimize the negative impact of over/under-confidence on their expected utility.

Practical implications

The investors shall perform a post-analysis of investment, become aware of their past behavioural mistakes and start adapting to changing market conditions. This shall move the markets towards a new equilibrium in long run thus conforming AMH. However, the investors sometimes display an apparently irrational behaviour during this process.

Originality/value

To the best of the author's knowledge, this is the first study at market level data examining investors' over/under-reaction, over/under-confidence and adaptive behaviour in the context of stock market crash.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. 15 no. 6
Type: Research Article
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/IJOEM-05-2019-0357
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

  • Over/under-reaction
  • Over/under-confidence
  • Excessive market volatility
  • Adaptive market hypothesis

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