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This paper assesses the projected growth of food supply relative to population growth and estimated food demand growth over the next four decades.

World population projections are analyzed for the main developed and developing regions. Implied food demand growth is then compared to grain and oilseed supply projections from a few of the most reliable sources. Three of these are 10-year projections and two extend to 2030 and 2050. To the extent possible, comparisons are made among the alternative projections. Conclusions about food availability and prices are finally drawn.

Meeting the growth in demand for food, feed, and biofuels to 2050 will not be a steep hill to climb, but there will need to be continued private and public investment in technology to induce increased production growth rates through productivity enhancements and increased purchased inputs.

The main food security challenge of the future, as in the present, is not insufficient production but rather increasing access and reducing vulnerability for food insecure households. The dominance of future population growth in the food insecure regions of Africa makes this challenge even more critical between now and 2050 and even more so in the years beyond 2050 when climate change effects on resource constraints will be more severe.

We provide new measures of relative UK and US GDP per capita and output per worker for the crucial years between 1830 and 1870. Our estimates are current price comparisons that compare expenditure on GDP for five benchmark years using new price data. They show that the US leads in income per capita and output per worker compared to Great Britain and the United Kingdom. We check our estimates against sectoral productivity data and real wages.

The purpose of this paper is to simulate possoble scenarios of São Paulo’s office market recovering. In 2006, a previous paper that dealt with the same issue was published which the authors propose to analyse here. After eight years, the São Paulo office market is starting a new phase within its cycle. Then, the first part of this paper, as in Rocha-Lima and Alencar (2006), describes the economic scenario in which investment decisions are made for developing office buildings in the Brazilian market. Afterward, the authors simulated both the necessary period of time for investments in the São Paulo office market to recover attractiveness and time for the increase in the occupation rate to absorb the current vacant spaces.

These simulations were carried out using simple linear regressions models using the Brazilian gross domestic product (GDP) as explanatory variable to prices and vacancy rates dependent ones.

The authors have found that the vacant space can be fully re-occupied in the beginning of 2021 or mid of 2022, according to the GDP growth rate, and, from this moment on, the demand for new spaces may grow, and, moreover around 2019, investments may become attractive again in this market.

This paper offers an alternative approach for estimating office building scenarios, especially when the database of the market is scarce. It also permits to evaluate an investment strategy for emerging markets within next years, particularly in São Paulo, Brazil.

We analyze several dimensions of food security in Ethiopia, taking into account projected population growth, economic growth, and price information to estimate future food consumption by income decile. The analysis looks at the potential impact of large consumer price increases on food security metrics. We use the new USDA/ERS demand-based modeling framework in order to carry out this study. The modeling approach captures economic behavior by making food demand systematically responsive to income and price changes based on a demand specification well-grounded in microeconomic foundations. The projected change in food consumption can be apportioned to population growth, income growth, and changes in food prices and real exchange rates. We found that Ethiopia is highly food insecure, with 54% of the population consuming less than 2,100 calories a day at calibration levels. Income growth under unchanged prices mitigates food insecurity with the number of food-insecure people falling to 42.5 million in 2016. If domestic prices were free to fall with world market prices, the food-insecure population would decrease farther to 36.1 million. If domestic prices increased because of domestic supply shocks and constrained imports, the food-insecure population could rise to 64.7 million. The food gap (i.e., the amount of food necessary to eliminate Ethiopia’s food insecurity) would reach 3.6 million tons. The practical implications of this are that measures of food security are sensitive to changes in prices. Maintaining higher prices when global prices are low maintains higher levels of food insecurity than would otherwise prevail. Expanded access to lower cost imports could significantly improve food security in Ethiopia.

Revenue insurance is the most popular form of insurance available in the US federal crop insurance program. The majority of crop revenue policies are sold with a harvest price replacement feature that pays out on lost crop yields at the maximum of a realized or projected harvest price. The authors introduce a novel actuarial and statistical approach to rate revenue insurance policies with exotic price coverage: the payout depends on an order statistic or average of prices. The authors examine the price implications of different dependence models and demonstrate the feasibility of policies of this type.

Hierarchical Archimedean copulas and vine copulas are used to model dependence between prices and yields and serial dependence of prices. The authors construct several synthetic exotic price coverage insurance policies and evaluate the impact of copula models on policies covering different types of risk.

The authors’ findings show that the price of exotic price coverage policies is sensitive to the choice of dependence model. Serial dependence varies across the growing season. It is possible to accurately price exotic coverage policies and we suggest these add-ons as a possible avenue for developing private crop insurance markets.

The authors apply hierarchical Archimedean copulas and vine copulas that allow for flexibility in the modeling of multivariate dependence. Unlike previous research, which has primarily considered dependence across space, the form of exotic price coverage requires modeling serial dependence in relative prices. Results are important for this segment of the agricultural insurance market: one of the main areas that insurers can develop private products around the federal program.

The purpose of this paper is to present forecasts of fossil fuels prices until 2030 with spectral analysis to provide a clearer picture of this energy sector.

Fossil fuels prices time series are decomposed in simpler signals called approximations and details in the framework of the one-dimensional discrete wavelet analysis. The simplified signals are recomposed after Burg extension.

In 2019-2030 average price forecasts of: West Texas intermediate (WTI) oil ($58.67) is above its 1986-2030 long-term mean of $47.83; and coal ($81.01) is above its 1980-2030 long-term mean of $60.98. On the contrary, 2019-2030 average of price forecasts of: Henry Hub natural gas ($3.66) is below its 1997-2030 long-term mean of $4; heating oil ($0.64) is below its 1986-2030 long-term mean of $1.16; propane ($0.26) is below its 1992-2030 long-term mean of $0.66; and regular gasoline ($1.45) is below its 2003-2030 long-term mean of $1.87.

Fossil fuels prices projections may relieve participants of WTI oil and coal markets but worry participants of Henry Hub, heating oil, propane and regular gasoline markets including countries whose economy is tied to energy prices.

The purpose of this paper is to present a clear path to securitize the longevity risk with two distinct swaps in order to inspire a new Chinese life market.

Studies on longevity risk securitization consist of three aspects, respectively, instrument design, pricing methodology and mortality projection. The swaps designed are referenced, respectively, to vanilla and complex survivor swaps (Dowd et al., 2006; Lin and Cox, 2005). Methods applied are RHH model and Gompertz law for mortality projection, as well as two-factor Wang transformation for pricing.

This paper figures out the market price of risk in Chinese annuity market, checks for the sensitivity of the price to parameters and tests the hedging effects by Monte Carlo simulation.

Based on the theoretical and numerical results, this paper suggests an effective way to possibly witness the birth of New Life Market in China.