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Article
Publication date: 1 September 2023

Shaghayegh Abolmakarem, Farshid Abdi, Kaveh Khalili-Damghani and Hosein Didehkhani

This paper aims to propose an improved version of portfolio optimization model through the prediction of the future behavior of stock returns using a combined wavelet-based long…

100

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to propose an improved version of portfolio optimization model through the prediction of the future behavior of stock returns using a combined wavelet-based long short-term memory (LSTM).

Design/methodology/approach

First, data are gathered and divided into two parts, namely, “past data” and “real data.” In the second stage, the wavelet transform is proposed to decompose the stock closing price time series into a set of coefficients. The derived coefficients are taken as an input to the LSTM model to predict the stock closing price time series and the “future data” is created. In the third stage, the mean-variance portfolio optimization problem (MVPOP) has iteratively been run using the “past,” “future” and “real” data sets. The epsilon-constraint method is adapted to generate the Pareto front for all three runes of MVPOP.

Findings

The real daily stock closing price time series of six stocks from the FTSE 100 between January 1, 2000, and December 30, 2020, is used to check the applicability and efficacy of the proposed approach. The comparisons of “future,” “past” and “real” Pareto fronts showed that the “future” Pareto front is closer to the “real” Pareto front. This demonstrates the efficacy and applicability of proposed approach.

Originality/value

Most of the classic Markowitz-based portfolio optimization models used past information to estimate the associated parameters of the stocks. This study revealed that the prediction of the future behavior of stock returns using a combined wavelet-based LSTM improved the performance of the portfolio.

Details

Journal of Modelling in Management, vol. 19 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-5664

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 4 April 2024

Hsing-Hua Chang, Chen-Hsin Lai, Kuen-Liang Lin and Shih-Kuei Lin

Factor investment is booming in global asset management, especially environmental, social, and governance (ESG), dividend yield, and volatility factors. In this chapter, we use…

Abstract

Factor investment is booming in global asset management, especially environmental, social, and governance (ESG), dividend yield, and volatility factors. In this chapter, we use data from the US securities market from 2003 to 2019 to predict dividends and volatility factors through machine learning and historical data–based methods. After that, we utilize particle swarm optimization to construct the Markowitz portfolio with limits on the number of assets and weight restrictions. The empirical results show that that the prediction ability using XGBoost is superior to the historical factor investment method. Moreover, the investment performance of our portfolio with ESG, high-yield, and low-volatility factors outperforms baseline methods, especially the S&P 500 ETF.

Details

Advances in Pacific Basin Business, Economics and Finance
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-83753-865-2

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 7 March 2024

Manpreet Kaur, Amit Kumar and Anil Kumar Mittal

In past decades, artificial neural network (ANN) models have revolutionised various stock market operations due to their superior ability to deal with nonlinear data and garnered…

Abstract

Purpose

In past decades, artificial neural network (ANN) models have revolutionised various stock market operations due to their superior ability to deal with nonlinear data and garnered considerable attention from researchers worldwide. The present study aims to synthesize the research field concerning ANN applications in the stock market to a) systematically map the research trends, key contributors, scientific collaborations, and knowledge structure, and b) uncover the challenges and future research areas in the field.

Design/methodology/approach

To provide a comprehensive appraisal of the extant literature, the study adopted the mixed approach of quantitative (bibliometric analysis) and qualitative (intensive review of influential articles) assessment to analyse 1,483 articles published in the Scopus and Web of Science indexed journals during 1992–2022. The bibliographic data was processed and analysed using VOSviewer and R software.

Findings

The results revealed the proliferation of articles since 2018, with China as the dominant country, Wang J as the most prolific author, “Expert Systems with Applications” as the leading journal, “computer science” as the dominant subject area, and “stock price forecasting” as the predominantly explored research theme in the field. Furthermore, “portfolio optimization”, “sentiment analysis”, “algorithmic trading”, and “crisis prediction” are found as recently emerged research areas.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, the current study is a novel attempt that holistically assesses the existing literature on ANN applications throughout the entire domain of stock market. The main contribution of the current study lies in discussing the challenges along with the viable methodological solutions and providing application area-wise knowledge gaps for future studies.

Details

Benchmarking: An International Journal, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-5771

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 9 February 2024

Muhammad Wajid Raza

The purpose of this study is to conduct a systematic content review and bibliometric analysis of the current research trends, core concepts and knowledge mapping on the topic…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to conduct a systematic content review and bibliometric analysis of the current research trends, core concepts and knowledge mapping on the topic Islamic Banking and Finance (IBF) during Covid-19. Apart from highlighting the contributions of prolific authors, prominent institutions and countries, a comprehensive review of a significant number of documents using co-citation and co-word analysis is carried out for the science mapping.

Design/methodology/approach

A data set of 125 papers was collected published in Scopus database during the period December, 2019 and January 5th, 2023. Yearly publications, most-cited papers and authors, active sources, affiliations and countries are highlighted with descriptive analysis. Knowledge structure of the topic was mapped with investigating the social, intellectual and conceptual structures of IBF research. Content analysis is carried out to uncover the underlying research clusters that shape the scientific knowledge structure of studies.

Findings

A diverse group of authors and institutions contribute to the growing body of knowledge on the topic. IBF is adopting new paradigms and frameworks to integrate FinTech, crowd funding and Islamic social finance to provide sustainable solutions in both crisis and normal periods. The research on IBF is classified in to three themes: “financial markets in Covid-19,” “modeling risk and market regimes” and “FinTech and Islamic social finance.”

Research limitations/implications

This study collects data only from Scopus database. Future studies must include research articles from other databases such as, Web of Sciences.

Originality/value

This study highlights research gaps in the existing literature and provides directions for future research.

Details

Journal of Islamic Accounting and Business Research, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1759-0817

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 13 September 2022

Dini Rosdini, Ersa Tri Wahyuni and Prima Yusi Sari

This study aims to explore credit scoring regulations, governance, variables and methods used by peer-to-peer (P2P) lending platforms in key players of the Association of…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to explore credit scoring regulations, governance, variables and methods used by peer-to-peer (P2P) lending platforms in key players of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) region’s P2P, Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore.

Design/methodology/approach

This study explores the P2P Lending characteristics of the three countries using qualitative literature review, interview, focus group discussion and desk research.

Findings

This study concludes that the credit scoring variables used by the countries’ companies are almost the same. Key drivers of the differences are countries’ regulations, management/business core value and credit scoring data processing methods.

Practical implications

Ultimately, this research provides a comprehensive view for investors, businesses and researchers on the topic of ASEAN credit scoring governance and will help them navigate the complexities and improve their awareness on the importance of credit scoring governance in P2P lending companies.

Originality/value

This research provides an in-depth perspective on how P2P lending companies, credit scoring governance and regulations in the biggest three countries in Southeast Asia.

Details

Journal of Science and Technology Policy Management, vol. 15 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2053-4620

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 8 December 2023

Sven Rehers, Jon Lekander and Ansgar Bernhard Bendiek

This paper compares the benefits of direct international real estate investments in a mixed asset portfolio from the perspective of a passive investor with high and low bond…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper compares the benefits of direct international real estate investments in a mixed asset portfolio from the perspective of a passive investor with high and low bond allocation.

Design/methodology/approach

Due to high data availability and its professionalism, the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund was used as a representative example. Real estate indices from 8 countries were used for the portfolio analysis. The data were desmoothed according to Geltners’s 1993 approach.

Findings

The optimal real estate ratio in the present case is around 20–55%. However, this is strongly dependent on the bond ratio of the multi-asset portfolio. Portfolios with a high equity ratio benefit more from the additional direct real estate investments than portfolios with high bond ratios.

Research limitations/implications

A rebalancing of individual stocks and bonds was not analysed. Only indexes from MSCI (Morgan Stanley Capital International) were available.

Practical implications

Concludes that the weighting of stocks and bonds has a strong influence on the optimal real estate ratio and therefore structural changes that affect this weighting.

Originality/value

The originality of the paper lies in the analysis with different weights of stocks and bonds, the consideration of 8 real estate markets and the observation period. The results of the work highlight areas of interest for further research.

Details

Journal of Property Investment & Finance, vol. 42 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-578X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 5 September 2023

Taicir Mezghani, Mouna Boujelbène and Souha Boutouria

This paper investigates the predictive impact of Financial Stress on hedging between the oil market and the GCC stock and bond markets from January 1, 2007, to December 31, 2020…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper investigates the predictive impact of Financial Stress on hedging between the oil market and the GCC stock and bond markets from January 1, 2007, to December 31, 2020. The authors also compare the hedging performance of in-sample and out-of-sample analyses.

Design/methodology/approach

For the modeling purpose, the authors combine the GARCH-BEKK model with the machine learning approach to predict the transmission of shocks between the financial markets and the oil market. The authors also examine the hedging performance in order to obtain well-diversified portfolios under both Financial Stress cases, using a One-Dimensional Convolutional Neural Network (1D-CNN) model.

Findings

According to the results, the in-sample analysis shows that investors can use oil to hedge stock markets under positive Financial Stress. In addition, the authors prove that oil hedging is ineffective in reducing market risks for bond markets. The out-of-sample results demonstrate the ability of hedging effectiveness to minimize portfolio risk during the recent pandemic in both Financial Stress cases. Interestingly, hedgers will have a more efficient hedging performance in the stock and oil market in the case of positive (negative) Financial Stress. The findings seem to be confirmed by the Diebold-Mariano test, suggesting that including the negative (positive) Financial Stress in the hedging strategy displays better out-of-sample performance than the in-sample model.

Originality/value

This study improves the understanding of the whole sample and positive (negative) Financial Stress estimates and forecasts of hedge effectiveness for both the out-of-sample and in-sample estimates. A portfolio strategy based on transmission shock prediction provides diversification benefits.

Details

Managerial Finance, vol. 50 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0307-4358

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 3 October 2022

Libiao Bai, Shuyun Kang, Kaimin Zhang, Bingbing Zhang and Tong Pan

External stakeholder risks (ESRs) caused by unfavorable behaviors hinder the success of project portfolios (PPs). However, due to complex project dependency and numerous risk…

320

Abstract

Purpose

External stakeholder risks (ESRs) caused by unfavorable behaviors hinder the success of project portfolios (PPs). However, due to complex project dependency and numerous risk causality in PPs, assessing ESRs is difficult. This research aims to solve this problem by developing an ESR-PP two-layer fuzzy Bayesian network (FBN) model.

Design/methodology/approach

A two-layer FBN model for evaluating ESRs with risk causality and project dependency is proposed. The directed acyclic graph (DAG) of an ESR-PP network is first constructed, and the conditional probability tables (CPTs) of the two-layer network are further presented. Next, based on the fuzzy Bayesian network, key variables and the impact of ESRs are assessed and analyzed by using GeNIe2.3. Finally, a numerical example is used to demonstrate and verify the application of the proposed model.

Findings

The proposed model is a useable and effective approach for ESR assessment while considering risk causality and project dependency in PPs. The impact of ESRs on PP can be calculated to determine whether to control risk, and the most critical and heavily contributing risks and project(s) in the developed model are identified based on this.

Originality/value

This study extends prior research on PP risk in terms of stakeholders. ESRs that have received limited attention in the past are explored from an interaction perspective in the PP domain. A new two-layer FBN model considering risk causality and project dependency is proposed, which can synthesize different dependencies between projects.

Details

Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, vol. 31 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0969-9988

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 22 January 2024

Yanqing Wang

The existing literature offers various perspectives on integrating cryptocurrencies into investment portfolios; yet, there is a gap in understanding the behaviours, attitudes and…

Abstract

Purpose

The existing literature offers various perspectives on integrating cryptocurrencies into investment portfolios; yet, there is a gap in understanding the behaviours, attitudes and cross-investment links of individual investors. This study, grounded in the modern portfolio theory and the random walk theory, aims to add empirical insights that are specific to the UK context. It explores four hypotheses related to the influence of socio-demographics, digital adoption, cross-investment behaviours and financial attitudes on cryptocurrency owners.

Design/methodology/approach

This study uses a logistic regression model with secondary data from the Financial Lives Survey 2020 to assess the factors impacting cryptocurrency ownership. A total of 29 variables are used, categorized into four groups aligned with the hypotheses. Additionally, hierarchical clustering analysis was conducted to further explore the cross-investment links.

Findings

The study reveals a significant lack of diversification among UK cryptocurrency investors, a pronounced inclination towards high-risk investments such as peer-to-peer lending and crowdfunding, and parallels with gambling behaviours, including financial dissatisfaction and a propensity for risk-taking. It highlights the influence of demographic traits, risk tolerance, technological literacy and emotional attitudes on cryptocurrency investment decisions.

Originality/value

This study provides valuable insights into cryptocurrency regulation and retail investor protection, underscoring the necessity for tailored financial education and a holistic regulatory approach for investment products with comparable risk levels, with the aim of minimizing regulatory arbitrage. It significantly enhances our understanding of the unique dynamics of cryptocurrency investments within the evolving financial landscape.

Details

Journal of Financial Regulation and Compliance, vol. 32 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1358-1988

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 4 December 2023

Amit Pandey and Anil Kumar Sharma

This study examined Indian institutional investors' holding data to understand their investment strategy (Portfolio Concentration/Diversification) and explored whether their…

Abstract

Purpose

This study examined Indian institutional investors' holding data to understand their investment strategy (Portfolio Concentration/Diversification) and explored whether their skills were associated with their portfolio strategy and performance. The study introduced a new proxy to identify skilled investors by forecasting abnormal returns. Moreover, the study also highlighted where skilled Indian investors put their money for long-term investment.

Design/methodology/approach

This study measures portfolio concentration based on the number of holdings, the Hirschman–Herfindahl index (HHI) and benchmarks adjusted industry concentration. The study introduced a new proxy to identify skilled investors. We measured Investors' performance with the help of Carhart's four factors model and examined the relationship between variables through various regression models.

Findings

The study concluded a negative relationship between portfolio concentration and performance. However, skilled Indian investors get rewards from portfolio concentration decisions. It was found that skilled investors with few stocks and an industry concentration in their portfolio show a positive association between concentration and fund performance. Additionally, this study found Indian investors showing their faith in the financial sector for long-term investment.

Originality/value

This study examined Indian institutional investors' portfolio concentration strategy and introduced a new proxy to measure investors' skills.

Details

Journal of Advances in Management Research, vol. 21 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0972-7981

Keywords

1 – 10 of 238