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Article
Publication date: 11 February 2021

Meeta Sharma and Hardayal Singh Shekhawat

The purpose of this study is to provide a novel portfolio asset prediction by means of the modified deep learning and hybrid meta-heuristic concept. In the past few years…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to provide a novel portfolio asset prediction by means of the modified deep learning and hybrid meta-heuristic concept. In the past few years, portfolio optimization has appeared as a demanding and fascinating multi-objective problem, in the area of computational finance. Yet, it is accepting the growing attention of fund management companies, researchers and individual investors. The primary issues in portfolio selection are the choice of a subset of assets and its related optimal weights of every chosen asset. The composition of every asset is chosen in a manner such that the total profit or return of the portfolio is improved thereby reducing the risk at the same time.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper provides a novel portfolio asset prediction using the modified deep learning concept. For implementing this framework, a set of data involving the portfolio details of different companies for certain duration is selected. The proposed model involves two main phases. One is to predict the future state or profit of every company, and the other is to select the company which is giving maximum profit in the future. In the first phase, a deep learning model called recurrent neural network (RNN) is used for predicting the future condition of the entire companies taken in the data set and thus creates the data library. Once the forecasting of the data is done, the selection of companies for the portfolio is done using a hybrid optimization algorithm by integrating Jaya algorithm (JA) and spotted hyena optimization (SHO) termed as Jaya-based spotted hyena optimization (J-SHO). This optimization model tries to get the optimal solution including which company has to be selected, and optimized RNN helps to predict the future return while using those companies. The main objective model of the J-SHO-based RNN is to maximize the prediction accuracy and J-SHO-based portfolio asset selection is to maximize the profit. Extensive experiments on the benchmark datasets from real-world stock markets with diverse assets in various time periods shows that the developed model outperforms other state-of-the-art strategies proving its efficiency in portfolio optimization.

Findings

From the analysis, the profit analysis of proposed J-SHO for predicting after 7 days in next month was 46.15% better than particle swarm optimization (PSO), 18.75% better than grey wolf optimization (GWO), 35.71% better than whale optimization algorithm (WOA), 5.56% superior to JA and 35.71% superior to SHO. Therefore, it can be certified that the proposed J-SHO was effective in providing intelligent portfolio asset selection and prediction when compared with the conventional methods.

Originality/value

This paper presents a technique for providing a novel portfolio asset prediction using J-SHO algorithm. This is the first work uses J-SHO-based optimization for providing a novel portfolio asset prediction using the modified deep learning concept.

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Article
Publication date: 6 July 2020

Mazin A.M. Al Janabi

This study aims to examine the theoretical foundations for multivariate portfolio optimization algorithms under illiquid market conditions. In this study, special emphasis…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to examine the theoretical foundations for multivariate portfolio optimization algorithms under illiquid market conditions. In this study, special emphasis is devoted to the application of a risk-engine, which is based on the contemporary concept of liquidity-adjusted value-at-risk (LVaR), to multivariate optimization of investment portfolios.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper examines the modeling parameters of LVaR technique under event market settings and discusses how to integrate asset liquidity risk into LVaR models. Finally, the authors discuss scenario optimization algorithms for the assessment of structured investment portfolios and present a detailed operational methodology for computer programming purposes and prospective research design with the backing of a graphical flowchart.

Findings

To that end, the portfolio/risk manager can specify different closeout horizons and dependence measures and calculate the necessary LVaR and resulting investable portfolios. In addition, portfolio managers can compare the return/risk ratio and asset allocation of obtained investable portfolios with different liquidation horizons in relation to the conventional Markowitz´s mean-variance approach.

Practical implications

The examined optimization algorithms and modeling techniques have important practical applications for portfolio management and risk assessment, and can have many uses within machine learning and artificial intelligence, expert systems and smart financial applications, financial technology (FinTech), and within big data environments. In addition, it provide key real-world implications for portfolio/risk managers, treasury directors, risk management executives, policymakers and financial regulators to comply with the requirements of Basel III best practices on liquidly risk.

Originality/value

The proposed optimization algorithms can aid in advancing portfolios selection and management in financial markets by assessing investable portfolios subject to meaningful operational and financial constraints. Furthermore, the robust risk-algorithms and portfolio optimization techniques can aid in solving some real-world dilemmas under stressed and adverse market conditions, such as the effect of liquidity when it dries up in financial and commodity markets, the impact of correlations factors when there is a switching in their signs and the integration of the influence of the nonlinear and non-normal distribution of assets’ returns in portfolio optimization and management.

Details

Journal of Modelling in Management, vol. 16 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-5664

Keywords

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Article
Publication date: 12 May 2021

Mazin A.M. Al Janabi

This paper aims to examine from commodity portfolio managers’ perspective the performance of liquidity adjusted risk modeling in assessing the market risk parameters of a…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to examine from commodity portfolio managers’ perspective the performance of liquidity adjusted risk modeling in assessing the market risk parameters of a large commodity portfolio and in obtaining efficient and coherent portfolios under different market circumstances.

Design/methodology/approach

The implemented market risk modeling algorithm and investment portfolio analytics using reinforcement machine learning techniques can simultaneously handle risk-return characteristics of commodity investments under regular and crisis market settings besides considering the particular effects of the time-varying liquidity constraints of the multiple-asset commodity portfolios.

Findings

In particular, the paper implements a robust machine learning method to commodity optimal portfolio selection and within a liquidity-adjusted value-at-risk (LVaR) framework. In addition, the paper explains how the adapted LVaR modeling algorithms can be used by a commodity trading unit in a dynamic asset allocation framework for estimating risk exposure, assessing risk reduction alternates and creating efficient and coherent market portfolios.

Originality/value

The optimization parameters subject to meaningful operational and financial constraints, investment portfolio analytics and empirical results can have important practical uses and applications for commodity portfolio managers particularly in the wake of the 2007–2009 global financial crisis. In addition, the recommended reinforcement machine learning optimization algorithms can aid in solving some real-world dilemmas under stressed and adverse market conditions (e.g. illiquidity, switching in correlations factors signs, nonlinear and non-normal distribution of assets’ returns) and can have key applications in machine learning, expert systems, smart financial functions, internet of things (IoT) and financial technology (FinTech) in big data ecosystems.

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Book part
Publication date: 27 February 2009

Manuel Tarrazo

In this study, we analyze the power of the individual return-to-volatility security performance heuristic (ri/stdi) to simplify the identification of securities to buy…

Abstract

In this study, we analyze the power of the individual return-to-volatility security performance heuristic (ri/stdi) to simplify the identification of securities to buy and, consequently, to form the optimal no short sales mean–variance portfolios. The heuristic ri/stdi is powerful enough to identify the long and shorts sets. This is due to the positive definiteness of the variance–covariance matrix – the key is to use the heuristic sequentially. At the investor level, the heuristic helps investors to decide what securities to consider first. At the portfolio level, the heuristic may help us find out whether it is a good idea to invest in equity to begin with. Our research may also help to integrate individual security analysis into portfolio optimization through improved security rankings.

Details

Research in Finance
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-84855-447-4

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Article
Publication date: 28 September 2010

Tim‐Alexander Kroencke and Felix Schindler

The purpose of this paper is to compare the risk and return characteristics as well as the allocation of mean‐variance (MV) and downside risk (DR) optimized portfolios of…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to compare the risk and return characteristics as well as the allocation of mean‐variance (MV) and downside risk (DR) optimized portfolios of international real estate stock markets and to discuss implications for portfolio management.

Design/methodology/approach

The analysis focuses on real estate markets only and examines the appropriateness of the Markowitz approach based on MV optimization in comparison to the DR framework suggested by Estrada. Therefore, the two frameworks are presented before the properties of the return distributions are analyzed. Afterwards, the risk and return characteristics as well as the allocation of the efficient portfolios in both frameworks and the divergences are analyzed.

Findings

Because of non‐normally distributed returns, negative skewness, and probably non‐quadratic utility functions of investors, MV optimization is not appropriate and the alternative approach by Estrada has its merit compared with other DR frameworks. Furthermore, MV‐efficient and DR‐efficient portfolio allocation differ, as shown by a similarity index. Summarizing, MV optimization is inherent with misleading results and DR optimization shows stronger out‐of‐sample performance – at least during time periods characterized by high market volatility and financial market turmoil.

Originality/value

This study provides some interesting and valuable insights into the DR of international securitized real estate portfolios and the limitations for portfolio management based on MV optimization.

Details

Journal of Property Investment & Finance, vol. 28 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-578X

Keywords

Content available
Article
Publication date: 16 March 2021

Bayu Adi Nugroho

It is crucial to find a better portfolio optimization strategy, considering the cryptocurrencies' asymmetric volatilities. Hence, this research aimed to present dynamic…

Abstract

Purpose

It is crucial to find a better portfolio optimization strategy, considering the cryptocurrencies' asymmetric volatilities. Hence, this research aimed to present dynamic optimization on minimum variance (MVP), equal risk contribution (ERC) and most diversified portfolio (MDP).

Design/methodology/approach

This study applied dynamic covariances from multivariate GARCH(1,1) with Student’s-t-distribution. This research also constructed static optimization from the conventional MVP, ERC and MDP as comparison. Moreover, the optimization involved transaction cost and out-of-sample analysis from the rolling windows method. The sample consisted of ten significant cryptocurrencies.

Findings

Dynamic optimization enhanced risk-adjusted return. Moreover, dynamic MDP and ERC could win the naïve strategy (1/N) under various estimation windows, and forecast lengths when the transaction cost ranging from 10 bps to 50 bps. The researcher also used another researcher's sample as a robustness test. Findings showed that dynamic optimization (MDP and ERC) outperformed the benchmark.

Practical implications

Sophisticated investors may use the dynamic ERC and MDP to optimize cryptocurrencies portfolio.

Originality/value

To the best of the author’s knowledge, this is the first paper that studies the dynamic optimization on MVP, ERC and MDP using DCC and ADCC-GARCH with multivariate-t-distribution and rolling windows method.

Details

Journal of Capital Markets Studies, vol. 5 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2514-4774

Keywords

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Article
Publication date: 7 September 2012

Joy P. Vazhayil and R. Balasubramanian

Optimization of energy planning for growth and sustainable development has become very important in the context of climate change mitigation imperatives in developing…

Abstract

Purpose

Optimization of energy planning for growth and sustainable development has become very important in the context of climate change mitigation imperatives in developing countries. Existing models do not capture developing country realities adequately. The purpose of this paper is to conceptualizes a framework for energy strategy optimization of the Indian energy sector, which can be applied in all emerging economies.

Design/methodology/approach

Hierarchical multi‐objective policy optimization methodology adopts a policy‐centric approach and groups the energy strategies into multi‐level portfolios based on convergence of objectives appropriate to each level. This arrangement facilitates application of the optimality principle of dynamic programming. Synchronised optimization of strategies with respect to the common objectives at each level results in optimal policy portfolios.

Findings

The reductionist policy‐centric approach to complex energy economy modelling, facilitated by the dynamic programming methodology, is most suitable for policy optimization in the context of a developing country. Barriers to project implementation and cost risks are critical features of developing countries which are captured in the framework in the form of a comprehensive risk barrier index. Genetic algorithms are suitable for optimization of the first level objectives, while the efficiency approach, using restricted weight stochastic data envelopment analysis, is appropriate for higher levels of the objective hierarchy.

Research limitations/implications

The methodology has been designed for application to the energy sector planning for India's 12th Five Year Plan for which the objectives of faster growth, better inclusion, energy security and sustainability have been identified. The conceptual framework combines, within the policy domain, the bottom‐up and top‐down processes to form a hybrid modelling approach yielding optimal outcomes, transparent and convincing to the policy makers. The research findings have substantial implications for transition management to a sustainable energy framework.

Originality/value

The methodology is general in nature and can be employed in all sectors of the economy. It is especially suited to policy design in developing countries with the ground realities factored into the model as project barriers. It offers modularity and flexibility in implementation and can accommodate all the key strategies from diverse sectors along with multiple objectives in the policy optimization process. It enables adoption of an evidence‐based and transparent approach to policy making. The research findings have substantial value for transition management to a sustainable energy framework in developing countries.

Details

International Journal of Energy Sector Management, vol. 6 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1750-6220

Keywords

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Article
Publication date: 11 June 2018

Antonis Pavlou, Michalis Doumpos and Constantin Zopounidis

The optimization of investment portfolios is a topic of major importance in financial decision making, with many relevant models available in the relevant literature. The…

Abstract

Purpose

The optimization of investment portfolios is a topic of major importance in financial decision making, with many relevant models available in the relevant literature. The purpose of this paper is to perform a thorough comparative assessment of different bi-objective models as well as multi-objective one, in terms of the performance and robustness of the whole set of Pareto optimal portfolios.

Design/methodology/approach

In this study, three bi-objective models are considered (mean-variance (MV), mean absolute deviation, conditional value-at-risk (CVaR)), as well as a multi-objective model. An extensive comparison is performed using data from the Standard and Poor’s 500 index, over the period 2005–2016, through a rolling-window testing scheme. The results are analyzed using novel performance indicators representing the deviations between historical (estimated) efficient frontiers, actual out-of-sample efficient frontiers and realized out-of-sample portfolio results.

Findings

The obtained results indicate that the well-known MV model provides quite robust results compared to other bi-objective optimization models. On the other hand, the CVaR model appears to be the least robust model. The multi-objective approach offers results which are well balanced and quite competitive against simpler bi-objective models, in terms of out-of-sample performance.

Originality/value

This is the first comparative study of portfolio optimization models that examines the performance of the whole set of efficient portfolios, proposing analytical ways to assess their stability and robustness over time. Moreover, an extensive out-of-sample testing of a multi-objective portfolio optimization model is performed, through a rolling-window scheme, in contrast static results in prior works. The insights derived from the obtained results could be used to design improved and more robust portfolio optimization models, focusing on a multi-objective setting.

Details

Management Decision, vol. 57 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0025-1747

Keywords

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Article
Publication date: 14 November 2016

Dima Waleed Hanna Alrabadi

This study aims to utilize the mean–variance optimization framework of Markowitz (1952) and the generalized reduced gradient (GRG) nonlinear algorithm to find the optimal…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to utilize the mean–variance optimization framework of Markowitz (1952) and the generalized reduced gradient (GRG) nonlinear algorithm to find the optimal portfolio that maximizes return while keeping risk at minimum.

Design/methodology/approach

This study applies the portfolio optimization concept of Markowitz (1952) and the GRG nonlinear algorithm to a portfolio consisting of the 30 leading stocks from the three different sectors in Amman Stock Exchange over the period from 2009 to 2013.

Findings

The selected portfolios achieve a monthly return of 5 per cent whilst keeping risk at minimum. However, if the short-selling constraint is relaxed, the monthly return will be 9 per cent. Moreover, the GRG nonlinear algorithm enables to construct a portfolio with a Sharpe ratio of 7.4.

Practical implications

The results of this study are vital to both academics and practitioners, specifically the Arab and Jordanian investors.

Originality/value

To the best of the author’s knowledge, this is the first study in Jordan and in the Arab world that constructs optimum portfolios based on the mean–variance optimization framework of Markowitz (1952) and the GRG nonlinear algorithm.

Details

International Journal of Islamic and Middle Eastern Finance and Management, vol. 9 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8394

Keywords

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Article
Publication date: 1 January 2001

Helmut Mausser and Dan Rosen

Standard market risk optimization tools, based on assumptions of normality, are ineffective for evaluating credit risk. In this article, the authors develop three scenario…

Abstract

Standard market risk optimization tools, based on assumptions of normality, are ineffective for evaluating credit risk. In this article, the authors develop three scenario optimization models for portfolio credit risk. They first create the trading risk profile and find the best hedge position for a single asset or obligor. The second model adjusts all positions simultaneously to minimize the regret of the portfolio subject to general linear restrictions. Finally, a credit risk‐return efficient frontier is constructed using parametric programming. While scenario optimization of quantile‐based credit risk measures leads to problems that are not generally tractable, regret is a relevant and tractable measure that can be optimized using linear programming. The three models are applied to optimizing the risk‐return profile of a portfolio of emerging market bonds.

Details

The Journal of Risk Finance, vol. 2 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1526-5943

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