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Article
Publication date: 1 January 1989

Jiang Xiaorong and Zhang Wenxian

The economic law of population distribution and migration has beenstudied chiefly based on the Chinese situation. The distribution anddevelopment of productive forces decide the…

Abstract

The economic law of population distribution and migration has been studied chiefly based on the Chinese situation. The distribution and development of productive forces decide the distribution and migration of population, and in turn, the latter influences the former. The population distributions in three different stages of social development, namely agricultural, industrial and information society, are described. A new concept in population economics is introduced, i.e. population economic density, which is different from the concept of population density. The formula of population economic density is P(population)/R(resources). Many kinds of migration are analysed, and it is believed that the main efficient cause of migration is economy.

Details

International Journal of Social Economics, vol. 16 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0306-8293

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 15 May 2017

Yi Sun, Chengjin Xu, Hailing Zhang and Zheng Wang

Climate change will have a significant impact on China’s potential agricultural production and change the distribution of the population in various regions of China, thus…

Abstract

Purpose

Climate change will have a significant impact on China’s potential agricultural production and change the distribution of the population in various regions of China, thus producing population migration. This paper aims to analyze China’s population migration in response to climate change and its socio-economic impact.

Design/methodology/approach

In this paper, the Potential Agriculture Production Index is introduced as an analytical tool with which to estimate the scale of the population migration induced by climate change. Also, this paper constructs a multi-regional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and analyzes the effect of change in the population distribution pattern on regional economies, regional disparity and resident welfare.

Findings

The key finding of this paper is that, as a result of changes in potential agricultural production induced by climate change, the Circum-Bohai-Sea region, the industrialized region and the industrializing region, which are the main destination regions of the migrating population, will face a severe labor shortage. In response to population migration, the economic growth rate of the immigrating population regions has accelerated. Correspondingly, the economic growth rate of the emigrating population regions has decreased. In addition, the larger the scale of population migration is, the larger the economic impact is. Migration increases inner-regional disparity and decreases inter-regional disparity. However, overall regional disparity is only somewhat decreased.

Originality/value

This paper introduces a Potential Agriculture Production Index to estimate the scale of the population migration and introduce a multi-regional CGE model to analyze the correlated social-economic impacts.

Details

International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management, vol. 9 no. 03
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1756-8692

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 12 April 2024

Tongzheng Pu, Chongxing Huang, Haimo Zhang, Jingjing Yang and Ming Huang

Forecasting population movement trends is crucial for implementing effective policies to regulate labor force growth and understand demographic changes. Combining migration theory…

Abstract

Purpose

Forecasting population movement trends is crucial for implementing effective policies to regulate labor force growth and understand demographic changes. Combining migration theory expertise and neural network technology can bring a fresh perspective to international migration forecasting research.

Design/methodology/approach

This study proposes a conditional generative adversarial neural network model incorporating the migration knowledge – conditional generative adversarial network (MK-CGAN). By using the migration knowledge to design the parameters, MK-CGAN can effectively address the limited data problem, thereby enhancing the accuracy of migration forecasts.

Findings

The model was tested by forecasting migration flows between different countries and had good generalizability and validity. The results are robust as the proposed solutions can achieve lesser mean absolute error, mean squared error, root mean square error, mean absolute percentage error and R2 values, reaching 0.9855 compared to long short-term memory (LSTM), gated recurrent unit, generative adversarial network (GAN) and the traditional gravity model.

Originality/value

This study is significant because it demonstrates a highly effective technique for predicting international migration using conditional GANs. By incorporating migration knowledge into our models, we can achieve prediction accuracy, gaining valuable insights into the differences between various model characteristics. We used SHapley Additive exPlanations to enhance our understanding of these differences and provide clear and concise explanations for our model predictions. The results demonstrated the theoretical significance and practical value of the MK-CGAN model in predicting international migration.

Details

Data Technologies and Applications, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2514-9288

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 27 February 2023

Farida Nurkhayati and Ardyanto Fitrady

Rural–urban migration has led to an increase in the community’s need for housing in the migration area. The demand for housing is getting higher while the land availability does…

Abstract

Purpose

Rural–urban migration has led to an increase in the community’s need for housing in the migration area. The demand for housing is getting higher while the land availability does not increase so that house prices will continue to increase. This study aims to estimate the impact of immigration on urban housing prices in Indonesia.

Design/methodology/approach

This study examines the effect of immigration on urban housing prices at the city level in Indonesia by using 14 major cities data from 2012 to 2020 to build a panel data model. The model also incorporates urban economic conditions as control variables.

Findings

From the national level, the authors find that inter-regional migration has a significant and positive impact on urban housing prices. Based on the results, this paper suggested addressing the volatility of house prices through the provision of decent and affordable housing improvement to meet the growing needs and demands of the immigrant population.

Research limitations/implications

This study still has several limitations: the sample of cities used is not comprehensive enough, and the time period used is not long enough; the spatial impact on house prices is not taken into account, and the effect of migrant characteristics in each city has not been considered.

Originality/value

There is limited research on the impact of immigration on urban housing prices in city levels, especially in the case of Indonesia. In addition, recent migration is used to proxy the immigration pattern. This paper provides a valuable contribution to the empirical literature on the effect of immigration at the city level in developing countries.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 March 2000

Hong Yang

Examines China’s population movement since the 1980s. The analysis tackles two types of migration: permanent with corresponding transfers of the household registration, and

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Abstract

Examines China’s population movement since the 1980s. The analysis tackles two types of migration: permanent with corresponding transfers of the household registration, and temporary without such transfers. The study finds that, while the reform has brought about a proliferation of temporary migrants, numbers of permanent migrants have been rather stable. Of temporary migrants, an increasing proportion has been made up by urban residents. Temporary migrants as a whole are more likely to conduct inter‐provincial migration than their permanent counterparts. Coastal provinces and a few northwest provinces have been the favored destinations for temporary migrants. Cities, especially large cities, are preferred by both permanent and temporary migrants. The attraction of towns has been weak and tended to decline. The findings suggest that the reform has not led to a significant change in the formality of permanent migration. The large‐city oriented flow of the overall migration has been contrary to the state urbanization strategy which prioritizes the development of small cities and towns.

Details

International Journal of Social Economics, vol. 27 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0306-8293

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 9 April 2008

Urban Fransson and Matias Eklöf

Concerning migration on a national level, two phenomena emerge: people migrating from one region to another and people moving from the countryside to the cities. The geographical…

Abstract

Concerning migration on a national level, two phenomena emerge: people migrating from one region to another and people moving from the countryside to the cities. The geographical shift of the population between regions in a country is a slow process. In Sweden, only a few percent of the population migrate yearly. Nevertheless, migration has caused and still causes considerable redistribution of the population toward the metropolitan regions in Sweden. This section will emphasize general trends in population concentration through urbanization and migration in Sweden and compare these trends with changes in other countries.

Details

Simulating an Ageing Population: A Microsimulation Approach Applied to Sweden
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-0-444-53253-4

Book part
Publication date: 11 August 2017

Cristian Incaltarau and Loredana Maria Simionov

The theoretical contribution provided by the transitional theories has fundamentally helped develop a better understanding of the migration process, by showing how migration is…

Abstract

The theoretical contribution provided by the transitional theories has fundamentally helped develop a better understanding of the migration process, by showing how migration is interacting with other processes of development. They show that along with development, emigration is following an upside down ‘U’ shaped pattern, being overreached by immigration, while the region changes its migration profile from emigration to immigration. This was the case for the southern European states, which followed a rapid migration transition during the second half of the twentieth century. After large emigration to Western and Northern Europe, these managed to attract large immigration flows from the less developed countries in Africa and Latin America, but also from Eastern Europe after the fall of communist regimes. This chapter aims to test whether Eastern Europe is heading to the same migration transition pattern as the South and change their current status of net migration provider. Thus, the impact of the migration transition drivers in explaining net migration balance is analysed using a panel data for the 2000–2013 period. As a country can encompass both emigration and immigration regions, the current analysis is carried out at European Union (EU) regional level data (NUTS II), while controlling for the regional specifics and unobserved time effects. Overall, most of the factors which led to the migration shift, from emigration to immigration, in Southern Europe were proven to be fundamental at EU regional level as well. Migration flows were shown to be more sensitive to unemployment, urbanisation, segmentation of the labour market and active population share in the eastern as compared to the southern European regions. Nevertheless, accessing the transition drivers evolution during 2011–2013 period, eastern regions are still highly unattractive and their chances for becoming destination regions are currently at low levels.

Details

Core-Periphery Patterns Across the European Union
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78714-495-8

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 1 August 2017

Catherine Earl, Philip Taylor, Chris Roberts, Patrick Huynh and Simon Davis

Population ageing, coupled with economic uncertainty and a shifting workforce structure, has directed the attention of public and organizational policy makers toward the potential…

Abstract

Population ageing, coupled with economic uncertainty and a shifting workforce structure, has directed the attention of public and organizational policy makers toward the potential contribution of older workers and skilled migrants in meeting labor supply shortages in ageing populations. This chapter presents labor supply and demand scenarios for 10 OECD countries and examines trends in the labor force participation of older workers against the backdrop of changes to the nature of work in an era of globalization, casualization, and, increasingly, automation. Brief analysis of each country’s situation and policy responses indicates that China, Japan, and Korea stand out as being at particular risk of being unable to maintain growth without undertaking drastic action, although their areas of focus need to differ. A limitation of the study is that GDP projections used in labor demand analysis were based on historical rates and represented past potential and a long-run average of historic economic output. Future research might also undertake comparative analysis of case studies addressing different potential solutions to workforce ageing. A key implication of the study is that there is a need to take a blended approach to public policy regarding older workers in a changing labor market. Where migration has historically been a source of labor supplementation, this may become a less viable avenue over the near future. Future shortfalls in labor imply that economies will increasingly need to diversify their sources of workers in order to maintain economic growth. For public policy makers the challenge will be to overcome public antipathy to migration and longer working lives.

Details

Age Diversity in the Workplace
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78743-073-0

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 10 April 2017

Yingtan Mu and Xin Yuan

At the end of the 1970s, the Chinese government enacted the one-child policy; now the one-child successively enters into the labor market and reaches the age for marriage and

Abstract

Purpose

At the end of the 1970s, the Chinese government enacted the one-child policy; now the one-child successively enters into the labor market and reaches the age for marriage and childbirth. The floating population group of China’s interior regions also experiences the heterogeneity changes. The purpose of this paper is to analyses the reasons for the difference of family migration between one-child and non-only child using the binary logit regression model – from the three aspects of individual characteristics, family endowment and institutional factors were investigated.

Design/methodology/approach

Family migration or individual migration of the floating population is the dichotomous dependent variable and therefore the binomial logistic regression analysis model is selected.

Findings

It is found that the tendency of one-child family migration is significantly higher than that of non-only child. The main reason is that the one-child has obvious advantages in terms of individual characteristics, family endowment and institutional factors.

Originality/value

The previous researches on family migration: first, the previous researches mainly analyzed the impact of the human capital and family income on the family migration from the perspective of economics and neglected the discussion on the family structure, life cycle, family level factors and Hukou’s limitation; second, most researches considered the migration as a whole. In fact, the migration population is no longer a highly homogeneous group and gradually become diversified.

Details

Asian Education and Development Studies, vol. 6 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2046-3162

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 21 April 2020

Jeremaiah M. Opiniano

The purpose of this paper is to review the international migration-and-development story of the Philippines, amongst the leading migrant-origin countries.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to review the international migration-and-development story of the Philippines, amongst the leading migrant-origin countries.

Design/methodology/approach

Migration and socio-economic development data are used to depict the migration-and-development conditions of the Philippines.

Findings

The Philippines has mastered the management of overseas migration based on its bureaucracy and policies for the migrant sector. Migration also rose for decades given structural economic constraints. However, the past 10 years of macro-economic growth may have seen migration and remittances helping lift the Philippines' medium-to-long term acceleration. The new Philippine future beside the overseas exodus hinges on two trends: accelerating the economic empowerment of overseas Filipinos and their families to make them better equipped to handle the social costs of migration; and strategizing how to capture a “diasporic dividend” by pushing for more investments from overseas migrants' savings.

Research limitations/implications

This paper may not cover the entirety of the Philippines' migration-and-development phenomenon.

Practical implications

Improving the financial capabilities of overseas Filipinos and their families will lead to their economic empowerment and to hopefully a more resilient handling of the (negative) social consequences of migration.

Social implications

If overseas Filipinos and their families handle their economic resources better, they may be able to conquer the social costs of migration.

Originality/value

This paper employed a population-and-development (PopDev) framework to analyse the migration-and-development conditions of the Philippines.

Details

Asian Education and Development Studies, vol. 10 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2046-3162

Keywords

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