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Open Access
Article
Publication date: 10 August 2022

Rama K. Malladi

Critics say cryptocurrencies are hard to predict and lack both economic value and accounting standards, while supporters argue they are revolutionary financial technology and a…

2299

Abstract

Purpose

Critics say cryptocurrencies are hard to predict and lack both economic value and accounting standards, while supporters argue they are revolutionary financial technology and a new asset class. This study aims to help accounting and financial modelers compare cryptocurrencies with other asset classes (such as gold, stocks and bond markets) and develop cryptocurrency forecast models.

Design/methodology/approach

Daily data from 12/31/2013 to 08/01/2020 (including the COVID-19 pandemic period) for the top six cryptocurrencies that constitute 80% of the market are used. Cryptocurrency price, return and volatility are forecasted using five traditional econometric techniques: pooled ordinary least squares (OLS) regression, fixed-effect model (FEM), random-effect model (REM), panel vector error correction model (VECM) and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH). Fama and French's five-factor analysis, a frequently used method to study stock returns, is conducted on cryptocurrency returns in a panel-data setting. Finally, an efficient frontier is produced with and without cryptocurrencies to see how adding cryptocurrencies to a portfolio makes a difference.

Findings

The seven findings in this analysis are summarized as follows: (1) VECM produces the best out-of-sample price forecast of cryptocurrency prices; (2) cryptocurrencies are unlike cash for accounting purposes as they are very volatile: the standard deviations of daily returns are several times larger than those of the other financial assets; (3) cryptocurrencies are not a substitute for gold as a safe-haven asset; (4) the five most significant determinants of cryptocurrency daily returns are emerging markets stock index, S&P 500 stock index, return on gold, volatility of daily returns and the volatility index (VIX); (5) their return volatility is persistent and can be forecasted using the GARCH model; (6) in a portfolio setting, cryptocurrencies exhibit negative alpha, high beta, similar to small and growth stocks and (7) a cryptocurrency portfolio offers more portfolio choices for investors and resembles a levered portfolio.

Practical implications

One of the tasks of the financial econometrics profession is building pro forma models that meet accounting standards and satisfy auditors. This paper undertook such activity by deploying traditional financial econometric methods and applying them to an emerging cryptocurrency asset class.

Originality/value

This paper attempts to contribute to the existing academic literature in three ways: Pro forma models for price forecasting: five established traditional econometric techniques (as opposed to novel methods) are deployed to forecast prices; Cryptocurrency as a group: instead of analyzing one currency at a time and running the risk of missing out on cross-sectional effects (as done by most other researchers), the top-six cryptocurrencies constitute 80% of the market, are analyzed together as a group using panel-data methods; Cryptocurrencies as financial assets in a portfolio: To understand the linkages between cryptocurrencies and traditional portfolio characteristics, an efficient frontier is produced with and without cryptocurrencies to see how adding cryptocurrencies to an investment portfolio makes a difference.

Details

China Accounting and Finance Review, vol. 25 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1029-807X

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 26 September 2019

Claudia Susana Gómez López and Karla Susana Barrón Arreola

This paper aims to study the relationship between employment and tourism activities as well as economic variables for the 32 states of Mexico for the period 1999-2014.

11886

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to study the relationship between employment and tourism activities as well as economic variables for the 32 states of Mexico for the period 1999-2014.

Design/methodology/approach

To study the case of Mexico, the authors use panel data and cointegration panel data. They also use geographic information systems to observe changes over time between the variables, which is useful in the empirical evidence.

Findings

The main results obtained by the models are as following: domestic tourism is the variable with the greatest impact on the generation of direct employment in the tourism sector, a finding supported by both methodologies; economic growth (measured by state gross domestic product) also directly impacts the generation of employment; and the cointegration of the panels causes a long-term equilibrium among the states and some variables.

Research limitations/implications

The model used leaves out other variables that may influence the performance of the tourist activity. In addition, given the availability of official and homogeneous information, it only covers what has been documented up to 2014.

Social implications

The aim is to measure the impact of tourism on the variables at the state level, where the economic activities could be based on public policies, as well as the importance of tourism activities in generating employment. In this sense, the impact would be in channeling efforts to support the main economic activities and could serve as a starting point for the evaluation of programs to promote domestic tourism.

Originality/value

This paper reviews the relationship that exists between tourism activity and its effect on other variables, especially employment. It is the first time that these topics are studied for the Mexican economy.

Details

Journal of Tourism Analysis: Revista de Análisis Turístico, vol. 26 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2254-0644

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 8 November 2018

Rohit Bansal, Arun Singh, Sushil Kumar and Rajni Gupta

The purpose of this paper is to quantify several measures to examine the determinants of profitability for the listed Indian banks. The authors include both public sector (PSUs…

5776

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to quantify several measures to examine the determinants of profitability for the listed Indian banks. The authors include both public sector (PSUs) and private sector’s banks in the study. The authors have taken all the banks that are registered on the Bombay stock exchange (BSE) in the sample. This paper also intends to identify the association between the net profit margin (PM) and return on assets (ROA) with the several other independent variables of the Indian banking sector including private banks and public banks over the past six years starting from April 1, 2012 to March 31, 2017. Therefore, a sample of 39 listed banking companies and total 195 balanced observations are selected for the analysis purpose.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors have used profitability as a dependent variable represented by net PM, ROA and several financial ratios as independent variables. Financial statement and income statement of all listed banks were obtained from BSE and particular company’s website. Panel data regression has been analyzed with both the descriptive research techniques, i.e., fixed effects and random effects. The authors also verified both panel techniques with Hausman’s specification test, which is a widely used procedure for selecting a panel effect. The authors applied PP – Fisher χ2, PP – Choi Z-statistics and Hadri to testing whether the data set is free from unit root problem and data set is a stationary series.

Findings

Results imply that interest expended interest earned (IEIE) and credit deposit ratio (CRDR) reduced the profitability of private banks in India. IEIE, CRDR and quick ratio (QR) reduced the profitability of public banks in India, while cash deposit ratio (CDR) and Advances to Loan Funds (ALF) increased the effectiveness of public banks. Under the total banks IEIE, CRDR reduced the profitability, on the other side, CDR, ALF and Total Debt to Owners Fund (TDOF) increased the profitability of total banks in India. Under the dependency of ROA, CRDR and TDOF reduced the return of private banks in India, while CDR, ALF and QR enhanced the profitability of private banks.

Originality/value

No variables found significant under public banks while taking ROA as a dependent variable. Under the overall banking data, CRDR reduced the profitability. On the other side, capital adequacy ratio and ALF increased the profitability of total banks in India. The findings of this study will support policy creators, financial executives and investors in constructing investment decisions.

Details

Asian Journal of Accounting Research, vol. 3 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2443-4175

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 26 February 2018

Vasudeva Murthy and Albert Okunade

This study aims to investigate, for the first time in the literature, the stochastic properties of the US aggregate health-care price inflation rate series, using the data on…

2020

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to investigate, for the first time in the literature, the stochastic properties of the US aggregate health-care price inflation rate series, using the data on health-care inflation rates for a panel of 17 major US urban areas for the period 1966-2006.

Design/methodology/approach

This goal is undertaken by applying the first- and second-generation panel unit root tests and the panel stationary test developed recently by Carrion-i-Silvestre et al. (2005) that allows for endogenously determined multiple structural breaks and is flexible enough to control for the presence of cross-sectional dependence.

Findings

The empirical findings indicate that after controlling for the presence of cross-sectional dependence, finite sample bias, and asymptotic normality, the US aggregate health-care price inflation rate series can be characterized as a non-stationary process and not as a regime-wise stationary innovation process.

Research limitations/implications

The research findings apply to understanding of health-care sector price escalation in US urban areas. These findings have timely implications for the understanding of the data structure and, therefore, constructs of economic models of urban health-care price inflation rates. The results confirming the presence of a unit root indicating a high degree of inflationary persistence in the health sector suggests need for further studies on health-care inflation rate persistence using the alternative measures of persistence. This study’s conclusions do not apply to non-urban areas.

Practical implications

The mean and variance of US urban health-care inflation rate are not constant. Therefore, insurers and policy rate setters need good understanding of the interplay of the various factors driving the explosive health-care insurance rates over the large US metropolitan landscape. The study findings have implications for health-care insurance premium rate setting, health-care inflation econometric modeling and forecasting.

Social implications

Payers (private and public employers) of health-care insurance rates in US urban areas should evaluate the value of benefits received in relation to the skyrocketing rise of health-care insurance premiums.

Originality/value

This is the first empirical research focusing on the shape of urban health-care inflation rates in the USA.

Details

Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, vol. 23 no. 44
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2077-1886

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 19 November 2021

Cass Shum, Jaimi Garlington, Ankita Ghosh and Seyhmus Baloglu

This study aims to describe the development of hospitality research in terms of research methods and data sources used in the 2010s.

2119

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to describe the development of hospitality research in terms of research methods and data sources used in the 2010s.

Design/methodology/approach

Content analyses of the research methods and data sources used in original hospitality research published in the 2010s in the Cornell Hospitality Quarterly (CQ), International Journal of Hospitality Management (IJHM), International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management (IJCHM), Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Research (JHTR) and International Hospitality Review (IHR) were conducted. It describes whether the time span, functional areas and geographic regions of data sources were related to the research methods and data sources.

Findings

Results from 2,759 original hospitality empirical articles showed that marketing research used various research methods and data sources. Most finance articles used archival data, while most human resources articles used survey designs with organizational data. In addition, only a small amount of research used data from Oceania, Africa and Latin America.

Research limitations/implications

This study sheds some light on the development of hospitality research in terms of research method and data source usage. However, it only focused on five English-based journals from 2010–2019. Therefore, future studies may seek to understand the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on research methods and data source usage in hospitality research.

Originality/value

This is the first study to examine five hospitality journals' research methods and data sources used in the last decade. It sheds light on the development of hospitality research in the previous decade and identifies new hospitality research avenues.

Details

International Hospitality Review, vol. 37 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2516-8142

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 16 July 2019

Rabia Khatun and Jagadish Prasad Bist

The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between financial development, openness in financial services trade and economic growth in BRICS countries for the period…

4694

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between financial development, openness in financial services trade and economic growth in BRICS countries for the period 1990–2012.

Design/methodology/approach

An index for financial development has been constructed using principal component analysis technique by including banking sector development, stock market development, bond market development and insurance sector development. For the robustness of the result, the long-run cointegrating relationship amongst the variables has been analyzed.

Findings

Overall financial development has a positive and significant impact on economic growth. To take the full advantage of openness in financial services trade, countries need to put more emphasis on the development of their stock markets, bond markets and the insurance sector. The result shows that openness in financial services trade has a positive impact on economic growth when the stock market, bond market and insurance sector are included in the system.

Research limitations/implications

The policy implication of the findings is that policymakers should focus more on developing all four areas of finance to get the full benefit of the financial system on the process of economic growth.

Originality/value

The authors have constructed the better indicators of financial development in the case of BRICS economies. Most of the studies in BRICS economies have measured the development of the financial sector as either banking sector development or stock market development. However, the present study includes all four areas of finance (banking sector development, stock market development, insurance sector development and bond market development) into account.

Details

International Trade, Politics and Development, vol. 3 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2586-3932

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 27 December 2022

Sudhi Sharma, Indira Bhardwaj and Kamal Kishore

Analysts expect reduced bank earnings as a result of the impact of the increase in bad loans. Banks have strategically created high provision coverage ratios allocating large…

2041

Abstract

Purpose

Analysts expect reduced bank earnings as a result of the impact of the increase in bad loans. Banks have strategically created high provision coverage ratios allocating large funds for possible deterioration in asset quality. Given the expected faster growth and recovery in the bank lending sector, investors have always been interested in banking stocks, despite the waves of non-performing assets (NPAs) and recessionary influences. Historical references reiterate that the banking stocks have been better performers in their returns compared to the capital markets.

Design/methodology/approach

The study aims to examine the impact of key accounting variables on the stock prices of Indian banks in the panel data framework.

Findings

The current study explores the impact of accounting variables on the market prices of shares. After the study, it may be concluded that earning per share (EPS), return on equity (ROE), capital adequacy ratio (CAR) and net interest margin (NIM) have an incremental impact on the prices of banking stocks, and the current ratio (CR) and NPAs have a detrimental impact on them.

Practical implications

Studying their impact on stock prices is the most convenient fundamental analysis that could be conducted on the stock prices of the banks.

Originality/value

To provide insights into the association of the accounting and regulatory variables there is a severe limitation in the quantity of the literature available. This study has attempted to build a relationship between the accounting and regulatory variables and the stock prices of banking stocks, to help investors with some reliable methods to estimate the stock prices in the future.

Details

Asian Journal of Accounting Research, vol. 8 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2443-4175

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 25 April 2022

Bashir Ahmad Joo, Sana Shawl and Daniel Makina

This study aims to assess the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on growth in presence of host country characteristics, namely, economic stability, human capital, financial…

3795

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to assess the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on growth in presence of host country characteristics, namely, economic stability, human capital, financial development and trade openness, in the fastest emerging Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa (BRICS) economies, considered to be significant FDI destinations.

Design/methodology/approach

The panel data for the variables under study, collected from World Investment Reports published by World Bank, are analyzed using feasible generalized least squares method to examine the relationship between the dependent and explanatory variables over the period 1987–2018. The interaction effect has been studied to examine the growth impact of FDI in presence of host country characteristics.

Findings

The findings revealed that FDI does not exert a significant impact on the economic growth of BRICS individually but has a significant growth impact only in presence of host country characteristics. FDI on interacting with financial development, trade openness and human capital exerts a positive impact on the economic growth of BRICS economies, and on interacting with economic instability (inflation), FDI has a negative impact on growth.

Practical implications

The study has implications for policy makers of BRICS countries who are suggested to work toward the development of financial markets, trade liberalization and human capital development to realize the positive growth impact of FDI.

Originality/value

Very few studies have been conducted to examine the growth effect of FDI in BRICS economies, which are considered to be the fastest-growing economies and dominant players in the global investment landscape. Assessing the interaction of FDI with absorptive capacities/host country characteristics to study its growth impact in BRICS using long data and robust panel data methodology is an original contribution of this paper toward the existing body of knowledge.

Details

Journal of Economics and Development, vol. 24 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1859-0020

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 31 March 2020

Kamrul Hassan, Ruhul Salim and Harry Bloch

This article examines the impact of population age structure on the real exchange rate. Data on a panel of 22 OECD (Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development) countries…

Abstract

This article examines the impact of population age structure on the real exchange rate. Data on a panel of 22 OECD (Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development) countries over 1980–2015 period are used to estimate the empirical model. Using fixed effect model the paper finds that different age cohorts have a significant influence on the real exchange rates in the sample countries. The results are mostly consistent with the theoretical framework discussed in the paper and also with the findings of previous studies in this area. These results have important policy implications given the fact that the population is ageing in almost all the OECD economies these days.

Details

Journal of International Logistics and Trade, vol. 18 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1738-2122

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 1 February 2022

Adewale Samuel Hassan and Daniel Francois Meyer

This study examines whether international tourism demand in the Visegrád countries is influenced by countries' risk rating on environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors…

5810

Abstract

Purpose

This study examines whether international tourism demand in the Visegrád countries is influenced by countries' risk rating on environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors, as non-economic factors relating to ESG risks have been ignored by previous researches on determinants of international tourism demand.

Design/methodology/approach

The study investigates panel data for the Visegrád countries comprising the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia over the period 1995–2019. Recently developed techniques of augmented mean group (AMG) and common correlated effects mean group (CCEMG) estimators are employed so as to take care of cross-sectional dependence, nonstationary residuals and possible heterogeneous slope coefficients.

Findings

The regression estimates suggest that besides economic factors, the perception of international tourists regarding ESG risk is another important determinant of international tourism demand in the Visegrád countries. The study also established that income levels in the tourists' originating countries are the most critical determinant of international tourism demand to the Visegrád countries.

Originality/value

The research outcomes of the study include the need for the Visegrád countries to direct policies towards further mitigating their ESG risks in order to improve future international tourism demand in the area. They also need to ensure exchange rate stability to prevent volatility and sudden spikes in the relative price of tourism in their countries.

Details

Journal of Tourism Futures, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2055-5911

Keywords

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