Search results

This paper aims to study the joint decision making of advance selling and service cancelation for service provides with limited capacity when consumers are overconfident.

For the case in which consumers encounter uncertainties about product valuation and consumption states in the advance period and are overconfident about the probability of a good state, we study how the service provider chooses the optimal sales strategy among the non-advance selling strategy, the advance selling and disallowing cancelation strategy, and the advance selling and allowing cancelation strategy. We also discuss how overconfidence influences the service provider’s decision making.

The results show that when service capacity is sufficient, the service provider should adopt advance selling and disallow cancelation; when service capacity is insufficient, the service provider should still implement advance selling but allow cancelation; and when service capacity is extremely insufficient, the service provider should offer spot sales. Moreover, overconfidence weakens the necessity to allow cancelation under sufficient service capacity and enhances it under insufficient service capacity but is always advantageous to advance selling.

The obtained results provide managerial insights for service providers to make advance selling decisions.

This paper is among the first to explore the effect of consumers’ overconfidence on the joint decision of advance selling and service cancelation under capacity constraints.

There is growing evidence that managers perceive the general environment inaccurately, but very few studies have looked at the accuracy of specific strategic issue probability estimates, and at whether or not managers are aware of the accuracy or inaccuracy of their perceptions, something referred to as knowledge miscalibration. I explore perceptual inaccuracy and knowledge miscalibration in the form of overconfidence, in the context of demographic ageing, an issue currently affecting the tourism and hospitality industry. Using data from a survey of hotel managers, I find a high prevalence of perceptual error and evidence of a relatively large minority of respondents displaying knowledge overconfidence. Furthermore, I find a link between accurate environmental perceptions and strategic issue importance, suggesting that managers are better at accurately perceiving an issue when it is strategically important for their business. The same link does not exist with overconfidence, lending support to scholars arguing that overconfidence may be a trait, rather than being question-specific.

This study aims to investigate the effect of overconfident chief executive officers (CEOs) on corporate tax avoidance and whether this relationship is affected by institutional and family ownership.

Using a sample of French-listed firms from 2009 to 2021, the authors find that firms managed by overconfident CEOs engage in more tax avoidance practice.

The authors further find that institutions and families are likely to discourage tax avoidance practices, paying close attention to their long-term horizons and reputational concerns. Overall, the authors' findings shed light on the monitoring role of institutional and family shareholders in restraining the effect of CEO behavioral bias on companies' tax avoidance.

To the authors' knowledge, no study has investigated the impact of managerial overconfidence on the tax behavior of French firms. The authors also extend the growing literature regarding managerial effects by providing new evidence that French firms held by concentrated institutional and family ownership curtail CEO overconfidence behavior toward corporate tax avoidance practices.

This paper contributes to the literature as follows. First, it examines if option and stock compensations raise creditor's risk, and which one is more important than the other. Second, it explores if CEO's compensation interacts with CEO overconfidence to raise creditor's risk. Third, it investigates how banks use different loan terms to alleviate their credit risk.

This study used advanced regression analysis and use of generalized methods of moment methodology.

The results show that option compensation is more important than stock compensation in raising credit risk; option compensation interacts with CEO overconfidence, giving rise to a much higher credit risk; and covenant usage is more important than other loan contract terms in mitigating credit risk given that covenant use could not be substituted away by using other loan contract terms such as increasing interest rate, reducing principal or shortening loan duration. This paper has practical implications for credit markets.

The main implication is that hand-collect data are available up to 2010.

It informs creditors the potential sources of loan risk emanating from option rather than stock incentives; it informs creditors that option incentive interacts with CEO overconfidence rendering the credit risk bigger than expected, and it informs creditors the importance of using covenants vis-à-vis other loan contract terms for mitigating compensation and overconfidence risk.

Banks are alerted to the risk due to the interaction between overconfidence and compensations, implying that overconfident managers remunerated with options compensations are more risky than overconfident managers who are not remunerated as such.

This paper is original: (1) The authors show that option compensation is more risky than stock compensation from viewpoint of creditors. This has not been assessed. (2) Interaction between managerial compensation and managerial overconfidence has not been assessed before. (3) Use of different loan contract terms to alleviate risk from overconfident managers (who are prone to over investment but who are innovative according to the literature) has not been evaluated.

This paper aims to investigate whether managerial overconfidence has an impact on investment inefficiency beyond its influence on the use of internal financing or whether internal financing behaves as a full intermediary.

The study employed three dependent variables, namely business investment scale, overinvestment and underinvestment, and analyzed data from 282 firms across five different industries listed in 11 Middle East/North Africa (MENA) countries between 2013 and 2019 using regression analysis via least square dummy variable (LSDV).

The findings indicate that while internal financing can provide funding for investment opportunities and address capital shortages, it may also result in overinvestment, particularly in companies led by overconfident managers.

Stakeholders, including shareholders and board of directors, should pay attention to the chief executive officer (CEO)'s behavioral aspects such as overconfidence in decision-making while undertaking new investment projects. Additionally, regulators and policymakers in emerging markets like MENA should re-evaluate the corporate governance framework, devise a corporate governance index and promote boardroom gender diversity as it can significantly reduce risk.

This study adds to the limited research on the impact of managerial overconfidence on investment efficiency in the MENA region. By focusing on this region, which has unique economic, political and social characteristics, the study provides new insights into the role of behavioral biases in investment decision-making in emerging markets.

This study aims to analyze how cultural variations impact the relationship between long-term debt use and managerial overconfidence. Investigate into how the relationship between growth prospects and the utilization of long-term debt is moderated by managerial overconfidence. In addition, the research explores the moderating effect of managerial overconfidence on cash flow levels.

The study used long-term debt as the dependent variable and used generalized method of moments–instrumental variables regression analysis to examine data from 356 firms across 11 Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries and 5 industries between 2013 and 2021.

CEO overconfidence moderately boosts the link between long-term debt maturity and growth potential, particularly for firms with limited internal funding. Cultural factors, such as masculinity and uncertainty avoidance, play a significant role in moderating the relationship between managerial overconfidence and debt maturity choices.

To understand the impact of managerial overconfidence on a company’s debt maturity decision, it is essential for boards and shareholders to consider and monitor the CEO’s behavioral traits, particularly for growing companies. Regulators and policymakers must also be wary of the risk of internal control weakening due to overconfident managers, especially in MENA markets.

The authors’ contribution to the literature lies in exploring how managerial overconfidence moderates the agency conflict between shareholders and debtholders in MENA region firms, which has received minimal attention in previous studies. This study expands the knowledge of the impact of managerial overconfidence on emerging economies and provides evidence that national culture plays a vital role in determining debt financing decisions.

This study investigates entrepreneurial overconfidence (EOC) levels among solo entrepreneurs at the country level. Although transitions from solo to employer entrepreneur are relatively rare, the solo self-employed have become an important source of potential job creation by virtue of the sharp increase in their numbers in the past two decades. When EOC levels are too high, job creation ambitions may be unrealistic and unrealised. Unrealised ambitions and business failure can lead not only to psychological and financial costs for the individual entrepreneurs involved, but at the societal level also to wasted government resources, and increased costs for the entrepreneurial ecosystem as a whole. Therefore, it is important to know more about the entrepreneurial overconfidence levels of solo entrepreneurs in different countries and their determinants.

Using Global Entrepreneurship Monitor data for 71 countries over the period 2013–2016, the authors construct a new measure of entrepreneurial overconfidence of solo entrepreneurs and relate this to three recently developed indicators of national culture.

The findings indicate that EOC levels are positively related to Joy (versus Duty), and negatively related to Trust (versus Distrust). Finally, no significant relationship between entrepreneurial overconfidence and Individualism is found in the study (versus Collectivism).

Given the lack of literature examining the relationship between EOC levels and cultural variables hypotheses were developed using the existent body of knowledge in the area, which is at the early stage of development. The hypotheses derivation has used mostly theoretical arguments relating to the link between national culture and overconfidence of entrepreneurs in general, rather than relating specifically to solo entrepreneurs. The measure of EOC uses expectations of employment growth to proxy overconfidence, but other measures of entrepreneurial success may also be explored.

As the hiring of employees can be a costly process (Coad et al., 2017), it is important that entrepreneurs have realistic expectations of what it requires to hire employees. This is especially the case for solo entrepreneurs since they do not have experience of hiring their own employees. This paper addresses such issues at an aggregate level by exploring what factors explain country differences in overconfidence levels of solo entrepreneurs.

It is worthwhile to distinguish between solo and employer entrepreneurs when studying their EOC levels, as the ambitions of these two types of entrepreneurs are different. Empirically, this study introduces a new measure of EOC tailored towards the solo self-employed.

This study contributes to entrepreneurship literature by expanding current knowledge on entrepreneurial overconfidence at the country level. Past research has studied EOC at the individual level, however limited research exists on the phenomenon of EOC from a country level perspective. This is important as unrealised entrepreneurial ambitions may not only create substantial costs for the individual entrepreneurs involved, it may also lead to substantial societal costs, including waste of government resources.

This study aims to investigate the effects and implications of overconfidence in a competitive game involving multiple newsvendors. This study explores how overconfidence influences system coordination, optimal stocking strategies and competition among newsvendors in the context of the well-known newsvendor stocking problem.

The study applies robust optimization theory and the absolute regret minimization criterion to analyze the competitive game of overconfident newsvendors. This study considers the asymmetric information held by newsvendors regarding market demand and obtains a closed-form solution for the competing game. The effects of overconfidence on system coordination and optimal stocking strategies are examined.

The results of the study indicate that overconfidence can act as a positive force in reducing the effects of overstocking caused by competition and asymmetric information among newsvendors. The analysis reveals that there exists an optimal level of overconfidence that coordinates the ordering system of multiple overconfident newsvendors, leading to first-best outcomes under certain conditions. Additionally, numerical examples confirm the obtained results. Furthermore, considering newsvendors' expected profit, the study finds that a higher degree of overconfidence does not necessarily result in lower actual expected profit.

Despite the significant contributions of this study to theoretical and managerial insights, this study does have certain limitations. First, in the establishment of the belief demand function, the substitution ratio, which quantifies the transfer, is assumed to be an exogenous variable. However, in reality, this is often influenced by factors such as the price of goods and the distance between stores. Therefore, one direction worth studying in the future is to explore the uncertainty associated with the demand substitution ratio and integrate that as an endogenous variable into the optimization model. Second, this study does not address the type of product and solely focuses on quantitatively analyzing the effect of salvage value on the optimal stocking strategy. Future studies can explore the effect of degree of perishability and selling period of the product on the stocking. Third, the focus of uncertainty in this study revolves around market demand, and the implications of this uncertainty are significant. A recent study (Rahbari et al., 2023) addressed an innovative robust optimization problem related to canned foods during pandemic crises. The recent study's findings highlighted the effectiveness of expanding canned food exports to neighboring countries with economic justification as the best strategy for companies amidst the disruptions caused by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Incorporating the issue of disruptions into the authors' research would be interesting and challenging.

From a managerial perspective, the authors' study provides a research paradigm for game-theoretic inventory problems in scenarios where the market demand distribution is unknown. While most inventory problems are analyzed and solved based on expectation-based optimization criteria, which rely on an accurate distribution of market demand, obtaining this information in practice can often be challenging or expensive for decision-makers. Consequently, a discrepancy arises between real-world observations and theoretical identifications. This study aimed to complement previous research and address the inconsistency between observations and theoretical identification.

The authors' research contributes to the existing understanding of overconfidence and assists individuals in making appropriate stocking strategies based on the individuals' level of overconfidence. Diverging significantly from the traditional view of overconfidence as a negative bias, the authors' results show the view's potential positive impact within a competitive environment, resulting in greater actual expected profits for newsvendors.

This study contributes to the existing literature by examining the effects of overconfidence in a competitive game of newsvendors. This study extends the analysis of the well-known newsvendor stocking problem by incorporating overconfidence and considering the implications for system coordination and competition. The application of robust optimization theory and the absolute regret minimization criterion provides a novel approach to studying overconfidence in this context.

In the context of a two-tier governance system, this study aims to investigate whether CEO overconfidence affects firm risk. In addition, this study examines the moderating role of the founder CEO on CEO overconfidence and firm risk.

This study uses a composite score index of CEO overconfidence with a sample of nonfinancial firms listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange from 2012 to 2019. It tests the research hypothesis with multiple linear regression analysis.

The findings indicate that CEO overconfidence reduces firm risk. In contrast, the founder CEO does not affect the relationship between CEO overconfidence and firm risk.

This study supports the upper echelon theory that argues that firms’ top management affects firms’ outcomes and behaviors.

The top management team heavily affects firms’ outcomes and behaviors in a two-tier governance system. Furthermore, firms’ selection policy of overconfident CEOs will be improved because these CEOs can diversify firm risks more effectively.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is the first to examine the role of the founder in the relationship between CEO overconfidence and firm risk.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate overconfidence bias and the effect of presidential elections on investor overconfidence bias in sub-Saharan African stock markets.

The study uses the vector autoregressive (VAR) model and its associated impulse response functions to investigate overconfidence bias. Furthermore, we make use of OLS regressions to examine the effect of presidential elections on investor overconfidence bias.

Investor overconfidence bias is present in the markets of Ghana and Tanzania suggesting that the phenomenon persists in sub–Saharan Africa's small markets. We also find that post-presidential election periods have a dampening effect on investor overconfidence in a country where there is less post-election uncertainty.

Despite the previous studies on investor overconfidence bias in sub-Saharan Africa, this paper to the best of the authors’ knowledge, is the first to investigate investor overconfidence bias in the context of presidential elections.