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This paper aims to investigate the profile of the wind speed of a Cameroonian city for the very first time, as there is a growing trend for new wind energy installations in the West region of Cameroon. Two well-known artificial neural networks, namely, multi-layer perceptron (MLP) and nonlinear autoregressive network with exogenous inputs (NARX), were used to model the wind speed profile of the city of Bapouh in the West-region of Cameroon.

In this work, the profile of the wind speed of a Cameroonian city was investigated for the very first time since there is a growing trend for new wind energy installations in the West region of Cameroon. Two well-known artificial neural networks namely multi-layer perceptron (MLP) and nonlinear autoregressive network with exogenous inputs (NARX) were used to model the wind speed profile of the city of Bapouh in the West-region of Cameroon. The meteorological data were collected every 10 min, at a height of 50 m from the NASA website over a period of two months from December 1, 2016 to January 31, 2017. The performance of the model was evaluated using some well-known statistical tools, such as root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The input variables of the model were the mean wind speed, wind direction, maximum pressure, maximum temperature, time and relative humidity. The maximum wind speed was used as the output of the network. For optimal prediction, the influence of meteorological variables was investigated. The hyperbolic tangent sigmoid (Tansig) and linear (Purelin) were used as activation functions, and it was shown that the combination of wind direction, maximum pressure, maximum relative humidity and time as input variables is the best combination.

Maximum pressure, maximum relative humidity and time as input variables is the best combination. The correlation between MLP and NARX was computed. It was found that the MLP has the highest correlation when compared to NARX.

Two well-known artificial neural networks namely multi-layer perceptron (MLP) and nonlinear autoregressive network with exogenous inputs (NARX) were used to model the wind speed profile.

Accurate forecast of tourist arrivals is crucial for Thailand since the tourism industry is a major economic factor of the country. However, a nonstationarity, normally consisted in nonlinear tourism time series can seriously ruin the forecasting computation. The purpose of this paper is to propose a hybrid forecasting method, namely discrete wavelet decomposition (DWD)-NARX, which combines DWD and the nonlinear autoregressive neural network with exogenous input (NARX) to cope with such nonstationarity, as a consequence, improve the effectiveness of the demand-side management activities.

According to DWD-NARX, wavelet decomposition is executed for efficiently extracting the hidden significant, temporal features contained in the nonstationary time series. Then, each extracted feature set at a particular resolution level along with a relative price as an exogenous input factor are fed into NARX for further forecasting. Finally, the forecasting results are reconstructed. Forecasting performance measures rely on mean absolute percentage error, mean absolute error as well as mean square error. Model overfitting avoidance is also considered.

The results indicate the superiority of the DWD-NARX over other efficient related neural forecasters in the cases of high forecasting performance rate as well as competently coping with model overfitting.

The scope of this study is confined to Thailand tourist arrivals forecast based on short-term projection. To resolve such limitations, future research should aim to apply the generalization capability of DWD-NARX on other domains of managerial time series forecast under long-term projection environment. However, the exogenous input factor is to be empirically revised on domain-by-domain basis.

Few works have been implemented either to handle the nonstationarity, consisted in nonlinear, unpredictable time series, or to achieve great success on finding an appropriate and effective exogenous forecasting input. This study applies DWD to attain efficient feature extraction; then, utilizes the competent forecaster, NARX. This would comprehensively and specifically deal with the nonstationarity difficulties at once. In addition, this study finds the effectiveness of simply using a relative price, generated based on six top-ranked original tourist countries as an exogenous forecasting input.

In this paper we are presenting our research findings on how effective neural networks are at forecasting and estimating preliminary project costs. We have shown that neural networks completely outperform traditional techniques in such tasks. In exploring nonlinear techniques almost all of the current research involves neural network techniques, especially multilayer perceptron (MLP) models and other statistical techniques and few authors have considered radial basis function neural network (RBF NN) models in their research. For this purpose we have developed RBF NN models to represent nonlinear static and dynamic processes and compared their performance with traditional methods. The traditional methods applied in this paper are multiple linear regression (MLR) and autoregressive moving average models with eXogenous input (ARMAX). The performance of these and RBF neural network and traditional models is tested on common data sets and their results are presented.

Building energy management systems use important information from indoor room temperature (IRT) forecasting to predict daily loads within smart buildings. IRT forecasting is a complex and challenging task, especially when energy demands are exponentially rising. The purpose of this paper is to review the relevant literature on indoor temperature forecasting in the past two decades and draw inferences on important methodologies with influencing variables and offer future directions.

The motivation for this work is based on the research work done in the field of intelligent buildings and energy related sector. The focus of this study is based on past literature on forecasting models and methodologies related to IRT forecasting for building energy management, with an emphasis on data-driven models (statistical and machine learning models). The methodology adopted here includes review of several journals, conference papers, reference books and PhD theses. Selected forecasting methodologies have been reviewed for indoor temperature forecasting contributing to building energy consumption. The models reviewed here have been earmarked for their benefits, limitations, location of study, accuracy along with the identification of influencing variables.

The findings are based on 62 studies where certain accuracy metrics and influencing explanatory variables have been reviewed. Linear models have been found to show explanatory relationships between the variables. Nonlinear models are found to have better accuracy than linear models. Moreover, IRT profiles can be modeled with enhanced accuracy and generalizability through hybrid models. Although deep learning models are found to have better performance for this study.

This is accuracy-based study of data-driven models. Their run-time performance and cost implications review and review of physical, thermal and simulation models is future scope.

Despite the earlier work conducted in this field, there is a lack of organized and comprehensive evaluation of peer reviewed forecasting methodologies. Indoor temperature depends on various influencing explanatory variables which poses a research challenge for researchers to develop suitable predictive model. This paper presents a critical review of selected forecasting methodologies and provides a list of important methodologies along with influencing variables, which can help future researchers in the field of building energy management sector. The forecasting methods presented here can help to determine appropriate heating, ventilation and air-conditioning systems for buildings.

An accurate long-term multi-step forecast provides crucial basic information for planning and reinforcing managerial decision-support. However, nonstationarity and nonlinearity, normally consisted of several types of managerial data can seriously ruin the forecasting computation. This paper aims to propose an effective long-term multi-step forecasting conjunction model, namely, wavelet–nonlinear autoregressive neural network (WNAR) conjunction model. The WNAR combines discrete wavelet transform (DWT) and nonlinear autoregressive neural network (NAR) to cope with such nonstationarity and nonlinearity within the managerial data; as a consequence, provides insight information that enhances accuracy and reliability of long-term multi-step perspective, leading to effective management decision-making.

Based on WNAR conjunction model, wavelet decomposition is executed for efficiently extracting hidden significant, temporal features contained in each of six benchmark nonstationary data sets from different managerial domains. Then, each extracted feature set at a particular resolution level is fed into NAR for the further forecast. Finally, NAR forecasting results are reconstructed. Forecasting performance measures throughout 1 to 30-time lags rely on mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), root mean square error (RMSE), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency index or the coefficient of efficiency (E_f) and Diebold–Mariano (DM) test. An effect of data characteristic in terms of autocorrelation on forecasting performances of each data set are observed.

Long-term multi-step forecasting results show the best accuracy and high-reliability performance of the proposed WNAR conjunction model over some other efficient forecasting models including a single NAR model. This is confirmed by DM test, especially for the short-forecasting horizon. In addition, rather steady, effective long-term multi-step forecasting performances are yielded with slight effect from time lag changes especially for the data sets having particular high autocorrelation, relative against 95 per cent degree of confidence normal distribution bounds.

The WNAR, which combines DWT with NAR can be accounted as a bridge for the gap between machine learning, engineering signal processing and management decision-support systems. Thus, WNAR is referred to as a forecasting tool that provides insight long-term information for managerial practices. However, in practice, suitable exogenous input forecast factors are required on the managerial domain-by-domain basis to correctly foresee and effectively prepare necessary reasonable management activities.

Few works have been implemented to handle the nonstationarity, consisted of nonlinear managerial data to attain high-accurate long-term multi-step forecast. Combining DWT and NAR capabilities would comprehensively and specifically deal with the nonstationarity and nonlinearity difficulties at once. In addition, it is found that the proposed WNAR yields rather steady, effective long-term multi-step forecasting performance throughout specific long time lags regarding the data, having certainly high autocorrelation levels across such long time lags.

Natural flood disasters frequently happen in Malaysia especially during monsoon season and Kuala Kangsar, Perak, is one of the cities with the frequent record of natural flood disasters. Previous flood disaster faced by this city showed the failure in notifying the citizen with sufficient time for preparation and evacuation. The authority in charge of the flood disaster in Kuala Kangsar depends on the real-time monitoring from the hydrological sensor located at several stations along the main river. The real-time information from hydrological sensor failed to provide early notification and warning to the public. Although many hydrological sensors are available at the stations, only water level sensors and rainfall sensors are used by authority for flood monitoring. This study developed a flood prediction model using artificial intelligence to predict the incoming flood in Kuala Kangsar area based on artificial neural network (ANN). The flood prediction model is expected to predict the incoming flood disaster by using information from the variety of hydrological sensors. The study finds that the proposed ANN model based on nonlinear autoregressive network with exogenous inputs (NARX) has better performance than other models with the correlation coefficient that is equal to 0.98930. The NARX model of flood prediction developed in this study can be referred to as the future flood prediction model in Kuala Kangsar, Perak.

This paper aims to establish a multi-input equilibrium manifold expansion (EME) model for gas turbine (GT). It proposes that the extension of model input dimension is realized based on similarity theory and affine structure in the framework of single-input EME model. The study aims to expand the scope of application of the EME model so that it can be used for the control or fault diagnosis of GTs.

In this paper, the concepts of corrected equilibrium manifold expansion (CEME) model and multi-cell equilibrium manifold expansion (MEME) model are first proposed. This paper uses theoretical analysis and simulation experiments to demonstrate the effectiveness of the bilayer equilibrium manifold expansion (BEME) model, which is a combination of the CEME and the MEME models. Simulation experiments include confirmatory experiments and comparative experiments.

The paper provides a new sight into building a multiple-input EME (MI-EME) model for GTs. The proposed method can build an accurate and robust MI-EME model that has superior performance compared with widely used nonlinear models including Wiener model (WM), Hammerstein model (HM), Hammerstein–Wiener model (HWM) and nonlinear autoregressive with exogenous inputs (NARX) network model. In terms of accuracy, the maximum error percentage of the proposed model is just 1.309%, far less than WM, HM and HWM. In terms of the stability of model calculation, the range of the mean error percentage of the proposed model is just a quarter of that of NARX network model.

The paper fulfills the construction of a novel multi-input nonlinear model, which has laid a foundation for the follow-up research of model-based GT fault detection and isolation or GT control.

This study constructs time series model, artificial neural networks (ANNs) and statistical topologies to examine the volatility and forecast foreign exchange rates. The Mauritian forex market has been utilized as a case study, and daily data for nominal spot rate (during a time period of five years spanning from 2014 to 2018) for EUR/MUR, GBP/MUR, CAD/MUR and AUD/MUR have been applied for the predictions.

Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models are used as a basis for time series modelling for the analysis, along with the non-linear autoregressive network with exogenous inputs (NARX) neural network backpropagation algorithm utilizing different training functions, namely, Levenberg–Marquardt (LM), Bayesian regularization and scaled conjugate gradient (SCG) algorithms. The study also features a hybrid kernel principal component analysis (KPCA) using the support vector regression (SVR) algorithm as an additional statistical tool to conduct financial market forecasting modelling. Mean squared error (MSE) and root mean square error (RMSE) are employed as indicators for the performance of the models.

The results demonstrated that the GARCH model performed better in terms of volatility clustering and prediction compared to the ARIMA model. On the other hand, the NARX model indicated that LM and Bayesian regularization training algorithms are the most appropriate method of forecasting the different currency exchange rates as the MSE and RMSE seemed to be the lowest error compared to the other training functions. Meanwhile, the results reported that NARX and KPCA–SVR topologies outperformed the linear time series models due to the theory based on the structural risk minimization principle. Finally, the comparison between the NARX model and KPCA–SVR illustrated that the NARX model outperformed the statistical prediction model. Overall, the study deduced that the NARX topology achieves better prediction performance results compared to time series and statistical parameters.

The foreign exchange market is considered to be instable owing to uncertainties in the economic environment of any country and thus, accurate forecasting of foreign exchange rates is crucial for any foreign exchange activity. The study has an important economic implication as it will help researchers, investors, traders, speculators and financial analysts, users of financial news in banking and financial institutions, money changers, non-banking financial companies and stock exchange institutions in Mauritius to take investment decisions in terms of international portfolios. Moreover, currency rates instability might raise transaction costs and diminish the returns in terms of international trade. Exchange rate volatility raises the need to implement a highly organized risk management measures so as to disclose future trend and movement of the foreign currencies which could act as an essential guidance for foreign exchange participants. By this way, they will be more alert before conducting any forex transactions including hedging, asset pricing or any speculation activity, take corrective actions, thus preventing them from making any potential losses in the future and gain more profit.

This is one of the first studies applying artificial intelligence (AI) while making use of time series modelling, the NARX neural network backpropagation algorithm and hybrid KPCA–SVR to predict forex using multiple currencies in the foreign exchange market in Mauritius.

The purpose of this paper is to predict the daily accuracy improvement for the Jakarta Islamic Index (JKII) prices using deep learning (DL) with small and big data of symmetric volatility information.

This paper uses the nonlinear autoregressive exogenous (NARX) neural network as the optimal DL approach for predicting daily accuracy improvement through small and big data of symmetric volatility information of the JKII based on the criteria of the highest accuracy score of testing and training. To train the neural network, this paper employs the three DL techniques, namely Levenberg–Marquardt (LM), Bayesian regularization (BR) and scaled conjugate gradient (SCG).

The experimental results show that the optimal DL technique for predicting daily accuracy improvement of the JKII prices is the LM training algorithm based on using small data which provide superior prediction accuracy to big data of symmetric volatility information. The LM technique develops the optimal network solution for the prediction process with 24 neurons in the hidden layer across a delay parameter equal to 20, which affords the best predicting accuracy based on the criteria of mean squared error (MSE) and correlation coefficient.

This research would fill a literature gap by offering new operative techniques of DL to predict daily accuracy improvement and reduce the trading risk for the JKII prices based on symmetric volatility information.

This research is the first that predicts the daily accuracy improvement for JKII prices using DL with symmetric volatility information.

The purpose of this paper is to develop and compare conventional and neural network-based controllers for gas turbines.

Design of two different controllers is considered. These controllers consist of a NARMA-L2 which is an artificial neural network-based nonlinear autoregressive moving average (NARMA) controller with feedback linearization, and a conventional proportional-integrator-derivative (PID) controller for a low-power aero gas turbine. They are briefly described and their parameters are adjusted and tuned in Simulink-MATLAB environment according to the requirement of the gas turbine system and the control objectives. For this purpose, Simulink and neural network-based modelling is used. Performances of the controllers are explored and compared on the base of design criteria and performance indices.

It is shown that NARMA-L2, as a neural network-based controller, has a superior performance to PID controller.

This study aims at using artificial intelligence in gas turbine control systems.

This paper provides a novel methodology for control of gas turbines.