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Article
Publication date: 3 July 2018

Benjamin S. Kay

While central bankers have widely discussed the trade-offs of negative interest rates on monetary policy, the consequences of negative rates on financial stability are less well…

Abstract

Purpose

While central bankers have widely discussed the trade-offs of negative interest rates on monetary policy, the consequences of negative rates on financial stability are less well understood. The purpose of this paper is to examine the likely and possible financial stability consequences of a negative rates policy with particular focus on banks, short-term funding markets, foreign exchange markets, asset managers, pension funds and insurers.

Design/methodology/approach

It draws from international experience with negative interest rates to identify financial stability threats posed to any economy by negative interest rates, and it also highlights where the US experience is likely to differ.

Findings

In time, financial market threats and other logistical issues of a negative interest rate policy can be managed or overcome. Even cumulatively, these threats are likely to be small as long as the rates remain only modestly negative. However, if the rates remain negative for long periods or they become more sharply negative, the rewards of avoiding negative rates increase.

Originality/value

Does the negative interest rate policy directly or through these challenges of implementation present a substantial obstacle to achieving financial stability objectives? As policy rates go negative in a greater share of the global economy, the financial stability consequences remain poorly understood and under discussed.

Details

Journal of Financial Economic Policy, vol. 10 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1757-6385

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 2 September 2019

B. Janakiraman

Low interest rates around the world due to adaptive monetary policy regulations for some time a source of concern for the banking sector and depositors of the bank. In this…

Abstract

Low interest rates around the world due to adaptive monetary policy regulations for some time a source of concern for the banking sector and depositors of the bank. In this environment, interest rates have raised concerns about nominal deposit interest rates which cannot be lowered below zero without destroying bank customers. Bank loans are becoming less vulnerable to lower interest rates on deposits approaching zero, indicating that the financial channel is weakened when interest rates are close to zero. Demographic pressures associated with longer life expectancy, China's gradual integration into global financial markets and changes in supply and asset requirements are attributed as reasons for low interest rates. Volatility of CPI inflation, interest rates on bank deposits attracting income tax and discontented depositors due to lower rates are cited as reasons for the suffering of bank depositors. This chapter thus discusses the impact of negative rate on economic growth and bank customers besides discussing the future trends of negative interest rates.

Details

The Impacts of Monetary Policy in the 21st Century: Perspectives from Emerging Economies
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78973-319-8

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 8 April 2020

Stephanos Papadamou, Costas Siriopoulos and Nikolaos A. Kyriazis

This paper presents an integrated overview of the empirical literature on the impact of all forms of unconventional monetary policy on macroeconomic variables and on markets.

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Abstract

Purpose

This paper presents an integrated overview of the empirical literature on the impact of all forms of unconventional monetary policy on macroeconomic variables and on markets.

Design/methodology/approach

This survey covers the findings concerning portfolio rebalancing, signaling, liquidity, bank lending and confidence channels.

Findings

The positive effect of QE announcements on stock and bond prices seems to be unified across studies. A contagion effect from US QE to other emerging markets is identified, while currency devaluation is present in most cases for the country that its central bank adopted such policies. Moreover, impacts of non-conventional practices on GDP, inflation and unemployment are examined. The studies presenting weak instead of strong positive effects on inflation are more, and these studies, also, present weak positive effects on GDP growth.

Originality/value

Based on the large body of research on non-conventional action taking, this is the first survey including effects of each country that adopted quantitative easing (QE) measures and that provides results from every methodology employed in order to estimate unconventional practices' impacts.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 47 no. 7
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 17 August 2021

Elena Fedorova and Elena Meshkova

This paper aims to examine the relationship between monetary policy and market interest rates. This paper examines the efficiency of interest rate channel used in monetary…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to examine the relationship between monetary policy and market interest rates. This paper examines the efficiency of interest rate channel used in monetary regulation as well as implementation of monetary policy under low interest rates. This paper examines and reviews the scientific literature published over the past 30 years to determine primary research areas, to summarize their results and to identify appropriate measures of monetary policy to be used in practice in changing economic environment.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper reviews 94 studies focused on the relationship between monetary policy and market interest rates in terms of meeting the goals of macroeconomic regulation. The articles are selected on the basis of Scopus citation and bibliometric analysis. A major feature of this paper is the use of text analysis (data preparation, frequency of terms and collocations use, examination of relationships between terms, use of principal component analysis to determine research thematic areas). Using the method of principal component analysis while studying abstracts this paper reveals thematic areas of the research. Thus, the conducted text analysis provides unbiased results.

Findings

First, this paper examines the whole complex of relationships between monetary policy of central banks and market interest rates. Second, this research reviews a wide range of literature including recent studies focused on specific features of monetary policy under low and negative rates. Third, this study identifies and summarizes the thematic areas of all the researches using text analysis (transmission mechanism of monetary policy, efficiency of zero interest rate policy, monetary policy and term structure of interest rates, monetary policy and interest rate risk of banks, monetary policy of central banks and financial stability). Finally, this paper presents the most important findings of the studied articles related to the current situation and trends on the financial market as well as further research opportunities. This paper finds the principal results of studies on significant issues of monetary policy in terms of its efficiency under low interest rates, influence of its instruments on term structure of interest rates and role of banking sector in implementation of transmission mechanism of monetary policy.

Research limitations/implications

The limitation of the review is examining articles for the study period of 30 years.

Practical implications

Central banks of emerging economies should apply the instruments and results of the countries' monetary policies reviewed in this paper. Using text analysis this paper reveals the main thematic areas and summarizes findings of the articles under study. The analysis allows presenting the main ideas related to current economic situation.

Social implications

The findings are of great value for adjusting the monetary policy of central banks. Also, these are important for people because these show the significant role of monetary policy for the economic growth.

Originality/value

Using text analysis this paper reveals the main thematic areas (transmission mechanism of monetary policy, efficiency of zero interest rate policy, monetary policy and term structure of interest rates, monetary policy and interest rate risk of banks, monetary policy of central banks and financial stability) and summarizes findings of the articles under study. The analysis allows defining the current ideas relevant to the monetary policy of developing countries. It is important for central banks because it examines the monetary policy problems and proposes optimal solutions.

Details

International Journal of Development Issues, vol. 20 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1446-8956

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 3 October 2022

Takayasu Ito

A cheaper yen gives foreign investors strong incentives to buy Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) of 5 and 10 years under the comprehensive easing policy regime. The purchase of…

Abstract

A cheaper yen gives foreign investors strong incentives to buy Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) of 5 and 10 years under the comprehensive easing policy regime. The purchase of JGBs by foreign investors using a cheaper yen funded on a negative basis in the long-term basis swap market contributes to the declining yield of JGBs under the comprehensive easing policy regime. When the Bank of Japan introduced a quantitative and qualitative easing policy, and then a negative interest rate policy, the trend observed under the comprehensive easing policy changed. This was because long-term basis swap rate tended not to decline under the quantitative and qualitative easing policy and negative interest rate policy regimes in comparison with under the comprehensive easing policy regime.

Book part
Publication date: 19 June 2019

Takayasu Ito

The five-, 10-, and 20-year yields of Japanese government bonds (JGBs) co-move with the six- and 12-month basis swap rates under the quantitative and qualitative easing policy

Abstract

The five-, 10-, and 20-year yields of Japanese government bonds (JGBs) co-move with the six- and 12-month basis swap rates under the quantitative and qualitative easing policy regime introduced by the Bank of Japan (BOJ). The 10- and 20-year JGB yields are in a one-to-one relationship with the six- and 12-month basis swap rates. A cheaper yen gives foreign investors strong incentives to buy 10- and 20-year JGBs under the quantitative and qualitative easing policy regime. A cheaper yen also gives foreign investors some incentives to buy five-year JGBs under the same regime. However, JGB yield does not co-move with basis swap rate under the negative interest rate policy regime. After the BOJ introduced the negative interest rate policy, the trend observed under the quantitative and qualitative easing policy regime changed.

Article
Publication date: 3 February 2022

Jingya Li, Zongyuan Li and Ming-Hua Liu

The authors examine the interest rate pass-through in Hong Kong (HK) and Macao both in the long term and short term.

Abstract

Purpose

The authors examine the interest rate pass-through in Hong Kong (HK) and Macao both in the long term and short term.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors use time series methodology, i.e. unit root, cointegration and error correction models.

Findings

The results show that in the post-global financial crisis (GFC) period, both the long-run and short-run interest rate pass-through from policy rates to prime rates have disappeared in Macao and are weakened significantly in Hong Kong. The long-term relationship between deposit rates and policy rates no longer exists in either market while the short-term relationship has been reduced significantly.

Research limitations/implications

The results indicate that the effectiveness of monetary policy in HK and Macao has been seriously undermined in the post-GFC period. New tools are needed in both regions.

Practical implications

Monetary policy transmission via bank interest rates in both HK and Macao are no longer effective after the outbreak of the GFC.

Social implications

Effort to stimulate the economy and/or control inflation will be hampered.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study to examine the impact of the GFC on the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission in HK and Macao.

Details

China Finance Review International, vol. 12 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2044-1398

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 11 May 2023

Wee-Yeap Lau and Tien-Ming Yip

This study aims to examine to what extent the Japanese financial markets are affected by the four periods of unconventional monetary policies (UMP) implemented by the Bank of…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to examine to what extent the Japanese financial markets are affected by the four periods of unconventional monetary policies (UMP) implemented by the Bank of Japan from 2013 to 2020.

Design/methodology/approach

Using the daily 10-year term spread as a proxy for monetary easing policy, this study uses four sub-sample periods from 2013 to 2020 to look into the effectiveness of UMP on the Japanese financial markets.

Findings

Our result shows that not all of the Bank of Japan's unconventional monetary policies are equally effective in influencing the Japanese financial markets. In particular, the QQE policy implemented from April 2013 to October 2014 effectively influenced the stock market, banking sector and foreign exchange market. However, the financial market impact of monetary policy is muted during the QQE expansion period. Likewise, the QQE with a negative interest rate policy influences only the banking sector. Finally, the QQE with its yield curve control policy effectively impacts the financial markets.

Research limitations/implications

This research can be expanded by studying the international spillover effect of the Bank of Japan's UMP on the financial markets in Asian countries.

Practical implications

The findings of this study enable investors to understand the causal relationship between the Bank of Japan's UMP and the financial market indicators, thereby helping them to position their portfolio investments. From the policy perspective, the finding is useful to inform the Bank of Japan on which policy is relatively effective in affecting the financial markets. In light of the empirical finding, the Bank of Japan should continue to pursue the QQE YCCP or revert to the initial QQE policy, as the two policies are relatively more effective than the QQE expansion and QQE NIRP in affecting the Japanese financial markets.

Social implications

The empirical finding highlights the importance of controlling for the impact of different QQE policies in the model. Future research may consider conducting sub-sample analysis to cater to the different QQE policy regimes. This approach provides a clearer picture and valid inferences on the financial market impact of each QQE policy.

Originality/value

This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the impact of Bank of Japan's QQE on the Japanese financial markets. For the market participants, the findings of this study suggest that investors should closely gauge the development of the unconventional monetary policies of the Bank of Japan because the monetary easing policy influences the decision-making process of commercial banks, pension funds, mutual funds, retail investors and other stakeholders in the financial markets. The policy twist will have future ramifications for their loan, investment and retirement fund portfolios.

Details

Journal of Financial Economic Policy, vol. 15 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1757-6385

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 6 December 2019

Shapoor Zarei, Hussain Marzban, Ali H. Samadi and Ahmad Sadraei Javaheri

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effects of news shocks on monetary policies using the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. To this end, two kinds…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effects of news shocks on monetary policies using the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. To this end, two kinds of news shocks (known as technology and consumer preferences) are defined according to Khan and Tsoukalas’ (2012) approach.

Design/methodology/approach

In order to construct and simulate the DSGE model to approaching the real conditions in a case study, consumption habits in the utility function were concerned based on the assumption of the zero-value obtained from multiplying the inflation by the real interest rate in the Fisher’s equation, whereas the real interest rates in the long run were appointed as negative remark in simulating the monetary policy models. The estimation and simulation results for the research models indicated that monetary policies using the interest rate instrument identified the news shocks less frequently than monetary policies using the monetary base instrument.

Findings

The approximate value of the social loss function in the optimal commitment and discretionary monetary policies suggests that the optimal commitment policy is estimated to be lower in both cases. Due to value of the social loss function in optimal monetary policies with nominal interest rate instrument in the presence of news shocks, this could be claimed that monetary policy with interest rate instrument is more appropriate than the monetary policy with a monetary base instrument.

Originality/value

The approximate value of the social loss function in the optimal commitment and discretionary monetary policies suggests that the optimal commitment policy is estimated to be lower in both cases.

Details

International Journal of Intelligent Unmanned Systems, vol. 7 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2049-6427

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 23 October 2018

Mohammad Selim

This paper aims to investigate the macroeconomic effects of Qard-al-Hasan (QH) as a tool of monetary policy (MP) and its effectiveness in achieving full employment and price…

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Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to investigate the macroeconomic effects of Qard-al-Hasan (QH) as a tool of monetary policy (MP) and its effectiveness in achieving full employment and price stability in the economy.

Design/methodology/approach

QH-based MP and its effects on major macroeconomic variables are examined on theoretical ground by using the standard aggregate output and aggregate expenditure model within the framework of Islamic economic principles.

Findings

QH-based MP positively influences real sectors of the economy and increases output, and the economy returns to full employment. QH provides the lowest possible borrowing costs across the economy and thus triggers rightward shift in aggregate supply curve and thus increases output and lowers price level. In addition, increase in output eliminates excess demand or shortages and thus maintains price stability. Furthermore, QH-based MP also increases exportable surplus and exports, decreases imports as well as increases inflow of funds and foreign currency reserves with the Central Bank and thus makes MP more effective.

Research limitations/implications

QH-based MP is usually expansionary MP, and as such, it can be argued that there is a probability that QH-based MP may lead to higher inflation rate. However, in this study, it has been shown with real world data in Table II, that 23 countries in Group 1 have pursued zero or negative interest rate policy and their experiences mitigate such probability.

Originality/value

This is, perhaps, the first paper that presents a complete model of QH as a tool of MP with fully explained transmission mechanism. This is new contribution in the literature of Islamic finance where theoretical model on QH is systematically developed and applied as an effective tool of MP in attaining full employment and price stability. This model of QH-based MP can unfold a new horizon of uninterrupted economic growth, full employment and price stability by increasing output and employment, as well as by eliminating excess demand or shortages.

Details

International Journal of Islamic and Middle Eastern Finance and Management, vol. 12 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8394

Keywords

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