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In this chapter, using a combination of long-run and sign restrictions to identify aggregate monetary and productivity factors, I find that the monetary factor is responsible for long swings in nominal variables but has little effect on fluctuations in output, real wage, or labor input growth. The productivity factor in addition to increasing output growth and real wage growth in the short and long run, also results in increases in labor input and decreases in prices, but the quantitative effect of the productivity factor on labor input is relatively small. These results are robust to the number of factors included in the model and to alternative priors about the short-run effects of the monetary factor, and to the inclusion of oil prices. Oil prices, in fact, appear to be largely driven by the other aggregate factors.

One of the most significant changes in monetary economics at the beginning of the twenty-first century has been the virtual disappearance of what was once a dominant focus, the role of money in monetary policy, and parallelly, the disappearance of the liquidity preference-money supply (LM) curve. Economists used to consider monetary policy with the help of the LM curve as part of the analytical framework which captures the demand for money. However, the workhorse model of modern monetary theory and policy, the New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) framework, only comprises the dynamic investment-savings (IS) curve, the New Keynesian (NK) Phillips curve, and a monetary policy rule. The monetary policy rule is generally known as the Taylor rule. It relates the nominal interest rate to the output-gaps and inflation-gaps, but typically not to either the quantity or the growth rate of money. This change in the modern monetary model reflects how the central banks make monetary policy now. This study provides a detailed discussion on the role of money in monetary policy formulation in the context of the NK and the New Monetarist perspectives. The pros and cons of abandonment of money or the LM curve from monetary policy models have been discussed in detail.

We investigate the Bayesian approach to model comparison within a two-country framework with nominal rigidities using the workhorse New Keynesian open-economy model of Martínez-García and Wynne (2010). We discuss the trade-offs that monetary policy – characterized by a Taylor-type rule – faces in an interconnected world, with perfectly flexible exchange rates. We then use posterior model probabilities to evaluate the weight of evidence in support of such a model when estimated against more parsimonious specifications that either abstract from monetary frictions or assume autarky by means of controlled experiments that employ simulated data. We argue that Bayesian model comparison with posterior odds is sensitive to sample size and the choice of observable variables for estimation. We show that posterior model probabilities strongly penalize overfitting, which can lead us to favor a less parameterized model against the true data-generating process when the two become arbitrarily close to each other. We also illustrate that the spillovers from monetary policy across countries have an added confounding effect.

The role of money and monetary policy of the central bank in pursuing macroeconomic stability has significantly changed over the period since the end of World War II. Globalization, liberalization, integration, and transition processes generally shaped the crucial milestones of the macroeconomic development and substantial features of economic policy and its framework in Europe. Policy-driven changes together with variety of exogenous shocks significantly affected the key features of macroeconomic environment on the European continent that fashioned the framework and design of monetary policies.

This chapter examines the key basis of the central bank’s monetary policy on its way to pursue and preserve the internal and external stability of the purchasing power of money. Substantial elements of the monetary policy like objectives and strategies are not only generally introduced but also critically discussed according to their accuracy, suitability, and reliability in the changing macroeconomic conditions. Brief overview of the Eurozone common monetary policy milestones and the past Eastern bloc countries’ experience with a variety of exchange rate regimes provides interesting empirical evidence on origins and implications of vital changes in the monetary policy conduction in Europe and the Eurozone.

The purpose of this paper is organized as follows. Section 2 reviews the literature on the subject matter, focusing on western economic literature and the Islamic economic paradigm, including the Quran, Sunnah, jurisprudence and Islamic philosophy thinking, to illustrate the origins of the Islamic approach to monetary systems. The money interest rate and its studies are explained, and the role of money and credit in the production function is considered. Then, it is shown that money maintains the demand for money in the overlapping generation model, as well as the consumption behavior of households. It is followed by an explanation of general Pareto optimality and the role of the money interest rate in inefficiency and nonoptimality for households and firms. Finally, Section 4 concludes the paper.

This paper studies the effects of money issuance and bank creation on Pareto optimality. In explaining the origins of the Islamic approach to monetary systems, the literature review, it focuses on western economics’ literature and Islamic economics paradigms such as the Quran, sunnah, jurisprudence and Islamic philosophy thinking. In modeling section, the authors show how banks’ fractional reserve credit is profitable. The authors also examine how the introduction of the money interest rate can change the Pareto optimality. In this regard, the comparison between two situations, namely, financing by the stock of money and borrowing in the credit market, indicates that welfare is reduced by the creation system and is inefficient (or nonoptimal). The result is that no money and no credits are created. The provision of this system compensates money by increasing the real money supply or deflation. To ensure Pareto optimality, it has been proven in the field of microfoundation that there should be no fixed money contracts and no money interest rates. It is necessary that the interest rate on consumption credit is zero or Qarz-al-Hasna is broken. Moreover, profit sharing is offered in the production sector.

As a result, the authors proved mathematically that the money interest rate must be zero to ensure productivity and Pareto optimality. On the other hand, the introduction of money or credit through loanable money leads to inefficiency, both in production and households and in the general equilibrium. The inflation generated by the credit system stimulates the change in the price level and perpetuates this inefficiency. Thus, if the authors want to return to the optimality condition, the interest rate on consumption credit must be zero or Qarz-al-Hasna is breached. However, the behavior of the fractional banking system and the credit mechanism teaches us that the money interest rate is an integral part of credit and loanable funds. Thus, the elimination of the money interest rate from the banking system without bank creation is implausible. Finally, to ensure Pareto optimality, it has been mathematically proven in the field of microfoundation that there should be no fixed money contracts and no money interest rate. It is necessary that the interest rate on consumption credit is zero, or Qarz-al-Hasna is broken. Moreover, profit sharing is offered in the production sector. The result is that no money and credit are created. The provision of this system compensates money by increasing the real money supply or deflation.

The capitalist theory of the definition of interest plays a decisive role in economic science. In this context, the authors are dealing with different vocabularies and terms for the interest rate. These different vocabularies have their origin in the different economic situations and especially determine the thinking of the schools. Because of the relationship between future and spot, the authors have to transform the variable “level” into the variable “interest rate” in the dynamic space. Finally, the exact explanations for the movement and evaluation of the economy are revealed by the correlation of the different interest rates.

The concept of “neutral money” has a long history in monetary theory and macroeconomics. Like a number of other macro concepts, its meaning has been subject to a variety of interpretations over the decades. I explore the way in which Hayek used this term in his monetary writings in the 1930s and argue that “neutrality” for Hayek was best understood as the idea that monetary institutions were ideal if money, and changes in its supply, did not independently affect the process of price formation and thereby create false signals leading to economic discoordination, and especially of the intertemporal variety. This view was rooted in his work on money and the trade cycle in the late 1920s and early 1930s and also bound up with his understanding of “equilibrium theory.” The importance of his concept of neutrality was that it served as a benchmark for judging the comparative effectiveness of different monetary regimes and policies. That use is still relevant today.

A major lesson of the European Monetary Union crisis is that serious disequilibria in a monetary union result from arrangements not designed to be robust to a variety of shocks. With the specter of this crisis looming substantially and scarring existing monetary zones, the purpose of this paper is to complement existing literature by analyzing the effects of monetary policy on economic activity (output and prices) in the CEMAC and UEMOA CFA franc zones.

VARs within the frameworks of Vector Error-Correction Models and Granger causality models are used to estimate the long- and short-run effects, respectively. Impulse response functions are further used to assess the tendencies of significant Granger causality findings. A battery of robustness checks are also employed to ensure consistency in the specifications and results.

–H1. monetary policy variables affect prices in the long-run but not in the short-run in the CFA zones (broadly untrue). This invalidity is more pronounced in CEMAC (relative to all monetary policy variables) than in UEMOA (with regard to financial dynamics of activity and size). H2. monetary policy variables influence output in the short-term but not in the long-run in the CFA zones. First, the absence of cointegration among real output and the monetary policy variables in both zones confirm the neutrality of money in the long term. With the exception of overall money supply, the significant effect of money on output in the short-run is more relevant in the UEMOA zone, than in the CEMAC zone in which only financial system efficiency and financial activity are significant.

First, compared to the CEMAC region, the UEMOA zone’s monetary authority has more policy instruments for offsetting output shocks but fewer instruments for the management of short-run inflation. Second, the CEMAC region is more inclined to non-traditional policy regimes while the UEMOA zone dances more to the tune of traditional discretionary monetary policy arrangements. A wide range of policy implications are discussed. Inter alia: implications for the long-run neutrality of money and business cycles; implications for credit expansions and inflationary tendencies; implications of the findings to the ongoing debate; country-specific implications and measures of fighting surplus liquidity.

The paper’s originality is reflected by the use of monetary policy variables, notably money supply, bank and financial credits, which have not been previously used, to investigate their impact on the outputs of economic activities, namely, real GDP output and inflation, in developing country monetary unions.

The purpose of this paper is to examine the effects of monetary policy on economic activity using a plethora of hitherto unemployed financial dynamics in inflation-chaotic African countries for the period of 1987-2010.Although in developed economies, changes in monetary policy affect real economic activity in the short-run, but only prices in the long-run, the question of whether these tendencies apply to developing countries remains open to debate.

Vector autoregresion (VARs) within the frameworks of Vector Error Correction Models and simple Granger causality models are used to estimate the long- and short-run effects, respectively. A battery of robustness checks are also used to ensure consistency in the specifications and results.

The tested hypotheses are valid under monetary policy independence and dependence, except few exceptions. H1: Monetary policy variables affect prices in the long-run but not in the short-run. For the first-half (long-run dimension) of the hypothesis, permanent changes in monetary policy variables (depth, efficiency, activity and size) affect permanent variations in prices in the long-term. But in cases of disequilibriums, only financial dynamic fundamentals of depth and size significantly adjust inflation to the cointegration relations. With respect to the second-half (short-run view) of the hypothesis, monetary policy does not overwhelmingly affect prices in the short-term. Hence, but for a thin exception, H1 is valid. H2: Monetary policy variables influence output in the short-term but not in the long-term. With regard to the short-term dimension of the hypothesis, only financial dynamics of depth and size affect real gross domestic product output in the short-run. As concerns the long-run dimension, the neutrality of monetary policy has been confirmed. Hence, the hypothesis is also broadly valid.

A wide range of policy implications are discussed. Inter alia: the long-run neutrality of money and business cycles, credit expansions and inflationary tendencies, inflation targeting and monetary policy independence implications. Country-/regional-specific implications, the manner in which the findings reconcile the ongoing debate, measures for fighting surplus liquidity and caveats and future research directions are also discussed.

By using a plethora of hitherto unemployed financial dynamics (that broadly reflect monetary policy), we provide significant contributions to the empirics of money. The conclusion of the analysis is a valuable contribution to the scholarly and policy debate on how money matters as an instrument of economic activity in developing countries.

The purpose of this paper is to test the hypothesis of long‐run money neutrality for Egypt, Jordan and Morocco using seasonal cointegration techniques.

The paper uses seasonal integration and cointegration techniques to test the neutrality of money hypothesis for three Middle Eastern economies, using quarterly data on money, prices and real income. The benefit of using this technique lies in its ability to distinguish between cointegration at different frequencies.

The empirical results show that money is cointegrated with prices, but not with output at the zero frequency for Egypt, Jordan and Morocco. This suggests that money affects nominal but not real variables in the long run, implying that money is neutral in these three Middle Eastern economies.

The implication of this finding for policy analysis suggests that the anti‐inflationary policy prescription espoused by the monetarist school should be followed in these three Middle Eastern countries, in order to curb inflation.

The paper provides further evidence in support of money neutrality using an unconventional approach for three developing Middle Eastern economies.