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1 – 10 of over 2000
Article
Publication date: 9 February 2024

Nhung Thi Nguyen, An Tuan Nguyen and Dinh Trung Nguyen

This paper aims to examine the effects of investor sentiment on the development of the real estate corporate bond market in Vietnam.

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to examine the effects of investor sentiment on the development of the real estate corporate bond market in Vietnam.

Design/methodology/approach

The research uses an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model with quarterly data. Additionally, the study employs Google Trends search data (GVSI) related to topics such as “Real Estate” and “Corporate Bond” to construct a sentiment index.

Findings

The empirical outcomes reveal that real estate market sentiment improves the growth of the real estate corporate bond market, while stock market sentiment reduces it. Also, there is evidence of a long-run negative effect of corporate bond market sentiment on the total value of real estate bond issuance. Further empirical research evidences the short-term effect of sentiment and economic factors on corporate bond development in the real estate industry.

Research limitations/implications

Due to difficulties in collecting data, this paper has the limited sample of 54 valid quarterly observations. Moreover, the sentiment index based on Google search volume data only reflects the interest level of investors, not their attitudes.

Practical implications

These results yield important implications for policymakers in respect of strengthening the corporate bond market platform and maintaining stability in macroeconomic and monetary policies in order to promote efficient and sustainable market development.

Social implications

The study offers some suggestions for regulators and governments to improve the real estate corporate bond market.

Originality/value

This is the first quantitative study to examine the effect of sentiment factors on real estate corporate bond development in Vietnam.

Details

Review of Behavioral Finance, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1940-5979

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 7 November 2023

Te-Kuan Lee and Askar Koshoev

The primary objective of this research is to provide evidence that there are two distinct layers of investor sentiments that can affect asset valuation models. The first is…

Abstract

Purpose

The primary objective of this research is to provide evidence that there are two distinct layers of investor sentiments that can affect asset valuation models. The first is general market-wide sentiments, while the second is biased approaches toward specific assets.

Design/methodology/approach

To achieve the goal, the authors conducted a multi-step analysis of stock returns and constructed complex sentiment indices that reflect the optimism or pessimism of stock market participants. The authors used panel regression with fixed effects and a sample of the US stock market to improve the explanatory power of the three-factor models.

Findings

The analysis showed that both market-level and stock-level sentiments have significant contributions, although they are not equal. The impact of stock-level sentiments is more profound than market-level sentiments, suggesting that neglecting the stock-level sentiment proxies in asset valuation models may lead to severe deficiencies.

Originality/value

In contrast to previous studies, the authors propose that investor sentiments should be measured using a multi-level factor approach rather than a single-factor approach. The authors identified two distinct levels of investor sentiment: general market-wide sentiments and individual stock-specific sentiments.

Details

Review of Behavioral Finance, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1940-5979

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 7 December 2021

Dorra Messaoud, Anis Ben Amar and Younes Boujelbene

Behavioral finance and market microstructure studies suggest that the investor sentiment and liquidity are related. This paper aims to examine the aggregate sentiment–liquidity…

Abstract

Purpose

Behavioral finance and market microstructure studies suggest that the investor sentiment and liquidity are related. This paper aims to examine the aggregate sentiment–liquidity relationship in emerging markets (EMs) for both the sample period and crisis period. Then, it verifies this relationship, using the asymmetric sentiment.

Design/methodology/approach

This study uses a sample consisting of stocks listed on the SSE Shanghai composite index (348 stocks), the JKSE (118 stocks), the IPC (14 stocks), the RTS (12 stocks), the WSE (106 stocks) and FTSE/JSE Africa (76 stocks). This is for the period ranging from February, 2002 until March, 2021 (230 monthly observations). We use the panel data and apply generalized method-of-moments (GMM) of dynamic panel estimators.

Findings

The empirical analysis shows the following results: first, it demonstrates a significant relationship between the aggregate investor sentiment and the stock market liquidity for the sample period and crisis one. Second, referring to the asymmetric sentiment, we have empirically given proof that the market is significantly more liquid in times of the optimistic sentiment than it is in times of the pessimistic sentiment. Third, using panel causality tests, we document a unidirectional causality between the investor sentiment and liquidity in a direct manner through the noise traders and the irrational market makers and also a bidirectional causality in an indirect channel.

Practical implications

The results reported in this paper have implications for regulators and investors in EMs. Firstly, the study informs the regulators that the increases and decreases in the stock market liquidity are related to the investor sentiment, not financial shocks. We empirically evince that the traded value is higher in the crisis. Secondly, we inform insider traders and rational market makers that the persistence of increases in the trading activity in both quiet and turbulent times is associated with investor participants such as noise traders and irrational market makers.

Originality/value

The originality of this work lies in employing the asymmetric sentiment (optimistic/pessimistic) in order to denote the sentiment–liquidity relationship in EMs for the sample period and the 2007–2008 subprime crisis.

Details

Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, vol. 39 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1026-4116

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 16 April 2024

Steven D. Silver

Although the effects of both news sentiment and expectations on price in financial markets have now been extensively demonstrated, the jointness that these predictors can have in…

Abstract

Purpose

Although the effects of both news sentiment and expectations on price in financial markets have now been extensively demonstrated, the jointness that these predictors can have in their effects on price has not been well-defined. Investigating causal ordering in their effects on price can further our understanding of both direct and indirect effects in their relationship to market price.

Design/methodology/approach

We use autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) methodology to examine the relationship between agent expectations and news sentiment in predicting price in a financial market. The ARDL estimation is supplemented by Grainger causality testing.

Findings

In the ARDL models we implement, measures of expectations and news sentiment and their lags were confirmed to be significantly related to market price in separate estimates. Our results further indicate that in models of relationships between these predictors, news sentiment is a significant predictor of agent expectations, but agent expectations are not significant predictors of news sentiment. Granger-causality estimates confirmed the causal inferences from ARDL results.

Research limitations/implications

Taken together, the results extend our understanding of the dynamics of expectations and sentiment as exogenous information sources that relate to price in financial markets. They suggest that the extensively cited predictor of news sentiment can have both a direct effect on market price and an indirect effect on price through agent expectations.

Practical implications

Even traditional financial management firms now commonly track behavioral measures of expectations and market sentiment. More complete understanding of the relationship between these predictors of market price can further their representation in predictive models.

Originality/value

This article extends the frequently reported bivariate relationship of expectations and sentiment to market price to examine jointness in the relationship between these variables in predicting price. Inference from ARDL estimates is supported by Grainger-causality estimates.

Article
Publication date: 9 February 2024

Alexandre Esteves and Pedro Piccoli

The purpose of this study is to investigate the influence of firm-specific investor sentiment on Brazilian companies’ accrual-based earnings management between 2010 and 2018. The…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to investigate the influence of firm-specific investor sentiment on Brazilian companies’ accrual-based earnings management between 2010 and 2018. The paper aims to bring deeper insight into the relationship between the investor expectations and managers’ decision-making in an emerging market.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors use the quantitative approach and apply a multiple linear regression model to test the relationship among the abnormal accruals, the firm-specific investor sentiment index and the control variables. The final sample includes data from 175 companies, between 2010 and 2018.

Findings

These results reveal a negative association between firm-specific investor sentiment and accrual-based earnings management, which could mean that the risk propensity of managers to manipulate earnings increases when they face known losses in the capital market.

Research limitations/implications

The research findings provide a valuable understanding of how emerging capital market expectations can influence managerial decisions, such as accrual-based earnings management. The geographical area of study was limited to only Brazil.

Originality/value

Previous studies on developed markets show that market-wide investor sentiment positively influences accrual-based earnings management. However, the present study shows that the firm-specific investor sentiment index has a significant and negative relationship with Brazilian companies’ earnings manipulation, whereas market sentiment indicates contradictory relationship in previous studies in the country.

Propósito

El propósito de este estudio es investigar la influencia del sentimiento de los inversionistas a nivel de empresa en la manipulación contable de las empresas brasileñas entre 2010 y 2018. El documento pretende aportar una visión más profunda sobre la relación entre las expectativas de los inversores y la toma de decisiones de los gestores en un mercado emergente.

Diseño/metodologia/enfoque

usamos el enfoque cuantitativo y aplicamos un modelo de regresión lineal múltiple para probar la relación entre las acumulaciones anormales, el índice de sentimiento de los inversores a nivel de empresa y las variables de control. La muestra final incluye datos de 175 empresas, entre 2010 y 2018.

Hallazgos

Los resultados revelan una asociación negativa entre el sentimiento de los inversores a nivel de empresa y la manipulación contable basada em acumulaciones, lo que podría significar que la propensión al riesgo de los administradores a manipular las ganancias aumenta cuando enfrentan pérdidas conocidas en el mercado de capitales.

Limitaciones/implicaciones de la investigación

los resultados de la investigación proporcionan una valiosa comprensión de cómo las expectativas de los mercados de capitales emergentes pueden influir en las decisiones de gestión, como la manipulación contable basada en acumulaciones. El área geográfica de estudio se limitó únicamente a Brasil y, en consecuencia, los hallazgos y conclusiones del estudio tuvieron sus límites.

Originalidad/valor

estudios anteriores sobre mercados desarrollados muestran que el sentimiento de los inversores a nivel de mercado influye positivamente en la manipulación contable. Sin embargo, el presente estudio muestra que el índice de sentimiento de los inversores a nivel de empresa tiene una relación significativa y negativa con la manipulación de las ganancias de las empresas brasileñas, mientras que el sentimiento del mercado indica una relación contradictoria en estudios anteriores en el país.

Details

Academia Revista Latinoamericana de Administración, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1012-8255

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 10 January 2023

Mehdi Mili, Asma Yahiya Al Amoodi and Hana Bawazir

This study aims to investigate the asymmetric impact of daily announcements regarding COVID-19 on investor sentiment in the stock market.

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to investigate the asymmetric impact of daily announcements regarding COVID-19 on investor sentiment in the stock market.

Design/methodology/approach

This study uses a Non-Linear Autoregressive Distribution Lag (NARDL) model that relies on positive and negative partial sum decompositions of the Coronavirus indicators. Five investor sentiments had been used and the analysis is conducted on the full sample period from 24th February 2020 to 25th March 2021.

Findings

The results show that new cases have a greater impact on investor sentiment compared to daily announcements of new deaths related to COVID-19. In addition to revealing a significant impact of new COVID-19 new cases and new death announcements on a daily basis on investor sentiment over the short- and long-term, this paper also highlights the nonlinearity and asymmetry of this relationship in the short and long run. Investors' sentiments are more affected by negative news regarding Covid 19 than positive news.

Originality/value

Financial markets have been severely affected by COVID-19 pandemic. This study is the first to measure the extent of reaction of investors to positive and negative announcements of COVID-19. Interestingly, this study examines the asymmetric effect of daily announcements on new cases and new deaths by COVID-19 on investor sentiments and derive many implications for portfolio managers.

Details

Review of Behavioral Finance, vol. 16 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1940-5979

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 6 September 2022

Dyliane Mouri Silva de Souza and Orleans Silva Martins

This study identified how investor sentiment on Twitter is associated with Brazilian stock market return and trading volume.

1210

Abstract

Purpose

This study identified how investor sentiment on Twitter is associated with Brazilian stock market return and trading volume.

Design/methodology/approach

The study analyzes 314,864 tweets between January 1, 2017, to December 31, 2018, collected with the Tweepy library. The companies’ financial data were obtained from Refinitiv Eikon. Using the netnographic method, a Twitter Investor Sentiment Index (ISI) was constructed based on terms associated with the stocks. This Twitter sentiment was attributed through machine learning using the Google Cloud Natural Language API. The associations between Twitter sentiment and market performance were performed using quantile regressions and vector auto-regression (VAR) models, because the variables of interest are heterogeneous and non-normal, even as relationships can be dynamic.

Findings

In the contemporary period, the ISI is positively correlated with stock market returns, but negatively correlated with trading volume. The autoregressive analysis did not confirm the expectation of a dynamic relationship between sentiment and market variables. The quantile analysis showed that the ISI explains the stock market return, however, only at times of lower returns. It is possible to state that this effect is due to the informational content of the tweets (sentiment), and not to the volume of tweets.

Originality/value

The study presents unprecedented evidence for the Brazilian market that investor sentiment can be identified on Twitter, and that this sentiment can be useful for the formation of an investment strategy, especially in times of lower returns. These findings are original and relevant to market agents, such as investors, managers and regulators, as they can be used to obtain abnormal returns.

Details

Revista de Gestão, vol. 31 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1809-2276

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 6 October 2021

Hongli Niu, Yao Lu and Weiqing Wang

This paper aims to investigate the dynamic relationship between the investor sentiment and the return of various sectors in the Chinese stock market.

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to investigate the dynamic relationship between the investor sentiment and the return of various sectors in the Chinese stock market.

Design/methodology/approach

The wavelet coherence and wavelet phase angle approaches are used to study the lead–lag associations between sentiment index and stock returns in a time–frequency way. The multiscale linear and nonlinear Granger causality tests are performed to explore whether there is a causality between them.

Findings

The empirical results show that during normal period, investor sentiment index has a stronger relationship with stock returns of industrials, consumer discretionary, health care, utilities, real estate and financial sectors. In crisis period, investor sentiment has a significant positive relationship with all industry sectors. In the short term, there is bidirectional causality between investor sentiment and stock returns of all sectors. In the medium and long run, almost all sector stock returns Granger-cause the investors' sentiment index but investor sentiment does not Granger-cause all sectors, which is in contrast to the developed markets.

Practical implications

The interindustry impact of investment sentiment on the stock market can help construct arbitrage portfolio by investors who are interested in Chinese stock market.

Originality/value

This paper focuses on the industry sector differences of investor sentiment impact on the Chinese stock market. As far as the authors know, this is the first paper to explore the time–frequency relationship between sentiment index and industry stock returns in China using the time–frequency method based on wavelet coherence, which considers the heterogeneity of different types of investors' responses to various economic and financial events.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. 18 no. 9
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 28 June 2022

Hayet Soltani and Mouna Boujelbene Abbes

This study aims to investigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on both of stock prices and investor's sentiment in China during the onset of the COVID-19 crisis.

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to investigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on both of stock prices and investor's sentiment in China during the onset of the COVID-19 crisis.

Design/methodology/approach

In this study, the ADCC-GARCH model was used to analyze the asymmetric volatility and the time-varying conditional correlation among the Chinese stock market, the investors' sentiment and its variation. The authors relied on Diebold and Yilmaz (2012, 2014) methodology to construct network-associated measures. Then, the wavelet coherence model was applied to explore the co-movements between these variables. To check the robustness of the study results, the authors referred to the RavenPack COVID sentiments and the Chinese VIX, as other measures of the investor's sentiment using daily data from December 2019 to December 2021.

Findings

Using the ADCC-GARCH model, a strong co-movement was found between the investor's sentiment and the Shanghai index returns during the COVID-19 pandemic. The study results provide a significant peak of connectivity between the investor's sentiment and the Chinese stock market return during the 2015–2016 and the end of 2019–2020 turmoil periods. These periods coincide, respectively, with the 2015 Chinese economy recession and the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak. Furthermore, the wavelet coherence analysis confirms the ADCC results, which revealed that the used proxies of the investor's sentiment can detect the Chinese investors' behavior especially during the health crisis.

Practical implications

This study provides two main types of implications: on the one hand, for investors since it helps them to understand the economic outlook and accordingly design their portfolio strategy and allocate decisions to optimize their portfolios. On the other hand, for portfolios managers, who should pay attention to the volatility spillovers between investor sentiment and the Chinese stock market to predict the financial market dynamics during crises periods and hedge their portfolios.

Originality/value

This study attempted to examine the time-varying interactions between the investor's sentiment proxies and the stock market dynamics. Findings showed that the investor's sentiment is considered a prominent channel of shock spillovers during the COVID-19 crisis, which typically confirms the behavioral contagion theory.

Details

Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Administration, vol. 15 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1757-4323

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 11 April 2024

Everton Anger Cavalheiro, Kelmara Mendes Vieira and Pascal Silas Thue

This study probes the psychological interplay between investor sentiment and the returns of cryptocurrencies Bitcoin and Ethereum. Employing the Granger causality test, the…

Abstract

Purpose

This study probes the psychological interplay between investor sentiment and the returns of cryptocurrencies Bitcoin and Ethereum. Employing the Granger causality test, the authors aim to gauge how extensively the Fear and Greed Index (FGI) can predict cryptocurrency return movements, exploring the intricate bond between investor emotions and market behavior.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors used the Granger causality test to achieve research objectives. Going beyond conventional linear analysis, the authors applied Smooth Quantile Regression, scrutinizing weekly data from July 2022 to June 2023 for Bitcoin and Ethereum. The study focus was to determine if the FGI, an indicator of investor sentiment, predicts shifts in cryptocurrency returns.

Findings

The study findings underscore the profound psychological sway within cryptocurrency markets. The FGI notably predicts the returns of Bitcoin and Ethereum, underscoring the lasting connection between investor emotions and market behavior. An intriguing feedback loop between the FGI and cryptocurrency returns was identified, accentuating emotions' persistent role in shaping market dynamics. While associations between sentiment and returns were observed at specific lag periods, the nonlinear Granger causality test didn't statistically support nonlinear causality. This suggests linear interactions predominantly govern variable relationships. Cointegration tests highlighted a stable, enduring link between the returns of Bitcoin, Ethereum and the FGI over the long term.

Practical implications

Despite valuable insights, it's crucial to acknowledge our nonlinear analysis's sensitivity to methodological choices. Specifics of time series data and the chosen time frame may have influenced outcomes. Additionally, direct exploration of macroeconomic and geopolitical factors was absent, signaling opportunities for future research.

Originality/value

This study enriches theoretical understanding by illuminating causal dynamics between investor sentiment and cryptocurrency returns. Its significance lies in spotlighting the pivotal role of investor sentiment in shaping cryptocurrency market behavior. It emphasizes the importance of considering this factor when navigating investment decisions in a highly volatile, dynamic market environment.

Details

Review of Behavioral Finance, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1940-5979

Keywords

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