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Article
Publication date: 16 April 2024

Askar Choudhury

The COVID-19 pandemic, a sudden and disruptive external shock to the USA and global economy, profoundly affected various operations. Thus, it becomes imperative to investigate the…

Abstract

Purpose

The COVID-19 pandemic, a sudden and disruptive external shock to the USA and global economy, profoundly affected various operations. Thus, it becomes imperative to investigate the repercussions of this pandemic on the US housing market. This study investigates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on a crucial facet of the real estate market: the Time on the Market (TOM). Therefore, this study aims to ascertain the net effect of this unprecedented event after controlling for economic influences and real estate market variations.

Design/methodology/approach

Monthly time series data were collected for the period of January 2010 through December 2022 for statistical analysis. Given the temporal nature of the data, we conducted the Durbin–Watson test on the OLS residuals to ascertain the presence of autocorrelation. Subsequently, we used the generalized regression model to mitigate any identified issues of autocorrelation. However, it is important to note that the response variable derived from count data (specifically, the median number of months), which may not conform to the normality assumption associated with standard regression models. To better accommodate this, we opted to use Poisson regression as an alternative approach. Additionally, recognizing the possibility of overdispersion in the count data, we also explored the application of the negative binomial model as a means to address this concern, if present.

Findings

This study’s findings offer an insightful perspective on the housing market’s resilience in the face of COVID-19 external shock, aligning with previous research outcomes. Although TOM showed a decrease of around 10 days with standard regression and 27% with Poisson regression during the COVID-19 pandemic, it is noteworthy that this reduction lacked statistical significance in both models. As such, the impact of COVID-19 on TOM, and consequently on the housing market, appears less dramatic than initially anticipated.

Originality/value

This research deepens our understanding of the complex lead–lag relationships between key factors, ultimately facilitating an early indication of housing price movements. It extends the existing literature by scrutinizing the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the TOM. From a pragmatic viewpoint, this research carries valuable implications for real estate professionals and policymakers. It equips them with the tools to assess the prevailing conditions of the real estate market and to prepare for potential shifts in market dynamics. Specifically, both investors and policymakers are urged to remain vigilant in monitoring changes in the inventory of houses for sale. This vigilant approach can serve as an early warning system for upcoming market changes, helping stakeholders make well-informed decisions.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 21 July 2023

Brahim Gaies and Najeh Chaâbane

This study adopts a new macro-perspective to explore the complex and dynamic links between financial instability and the Euro-American green equity market. Its primary focus and…

Abstract

Purpose

This study adopts a new macro-perspective to explore the complex and dynamic links between financial instability and the Euro-American green equity market. Its primary focus and novelty is to shed light on the non-linear and asymmetric characteristics of dependence, causality, and contagion within various time and frequency domains. Specifically, the authors scrutinize how financial instability in the U.S. and EU interacts with their respective green stock markets, while also examining the cross-impact on each other's green equity markets. The analysis is carried out over short-, medium- and long-term horizons and under different market conditions, ranging from bearish and normal to bullish.

Design/methodology/approach

This study breaks new ground by employing a model-free and non-parametric approach to examine the relationship between the instability of the global financial system and the green equity market performance in the U.S. and EU. This study's methodology offers new insights into the time- and frequency-varying relationship, using wavelet coherence supplemented with quantile causality and quantile-on-quantile regression analyses. This advanced approach unveils non-linear and asymmetric causal links and characterizes their signs, effectively distinguishing between bearish, normal, and bullish market conditions, as well as short-, medium- and long-term horizons.

Findings

This study's findings reveal that financial instability has a strong negative impact on the green stock market over the medium to long term, in bullish market conditions and in times of economic and extra-economic turbulence. This implies that green stocks cannot be an effective hedge against systemic financial risk during periods of turbulence and euphoria. Moreover, the authors demonstrate that U.S. financial instability not only affects the U.S. green equity market, but also has significant spillover effects on the EU market and vice versa, indicating the existence of a Euro-American contagion mechanism. Interestingly, this study's results also reveal a positive correlation between financial instability and green equity market performance under normal market conditions, suggesting a possible feedback loop effect.

Originality/value

This study represents pioneering work in exploring the non-linear and asymmetric connections between financial instability and the Euro-American stock markets. Notably, it discerns how these interactions vary over the short, medium, and long term and under different market conditions, including bearish, normal, and bullish states. Understanding these characteristics is instrumental in shaping effective policies to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), including access to clean, affordable energy (SDG 7), and to preserve the stability of the international financial system.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 51 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 16 April 2024

Steven D. Silver

Although the effects of both news sentiment and expectations on price in financial markets have now been extensively demonstrated, the jointness that these predictors can have in…

Abstract

Purpose

Although the effects of both news sentiment and expectations on price in financial markets have now been extensively demonstrated, the jointness that these predictors can have in their effects on price has not been well-defined. Investigating causal ordering in their effects on price can further our understanding of both direct and indirect effects in their relationship to market price.

Design/methodology/approach

We use autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) methodology to examine the relationship between agent expectations and news sentiment in predicting price in a financial market. The ARDL estimation is supplemented by Grainger causality testing.

Findings

In the ARDL models we implement, measures of expectations and news sentiment and their lags were confirmed to be significantly related to market price in separate estimates. Our results further indicate that in models of relationships between these predictors, news sentiment is a significant predictor of agent expectations, but agent expectations are not significant predictors of news sentiment. Granger-causality estimates confirmed the causal inferences from ARDL results.

Research limitations/implications

Taken together, the results extend our understanding of the dynamics of expectations and sentiment as exogenous information sources that relate to price in financial markets. They suggest that the extensively cited predictor of news sentiment can have both a direct effect on market price and an indirect effect on price through agent expectations.

Practical implications

Even traditional financial management firms now commonly track behavioral measures of expectations and market sentiment. More complete understanding of the relationship between these predictors of market price can further their representation in predictive models.

Originality/value

This article extends the frequently reported bivariate relationship of expectations and sentiment to market price to examine jointness in the relationship between these variables in predicting price. Inference from ARDL estimates is supported by Grainger-causality estimates.

Article
Publication date: 30 November 2023

Mohammad Rifat Rahman, Md. Mufidur Rahman, Athkia Subat and Tanzika Imam Tarin

This study empirically aims to examine the relationship between Bangladesh’s pharmaceutical industry growth and macroeconomic indicators such as the inflation rate, gross domestic…

Abstract

Purpose

This study empirically aims to examine the relationship between Bangladesh’s pharmaceutical industry growth and macroeconomic indicators such as the inflation rate, gross domestic product (GDP) growth, foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows, exchange rate and export growth through the long- and short-run relationship.

Design/methodology/approach

Using the time series data from 1986 to 2020, this study was developed based on the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) framework for co-integration. In contrast, the Toda–Yamamoto Granger Causality approach was also used for finding the direction of causality.

Findings

This study used the ARDL bounds test, which found strong co-integration among the variables, indicating a long-term relationship between them. In the long run, inflation, exchange rate and export growth significantly positively influence the pharmaceutical industry’s growth. Surprisingly, an FDI inflow has a negative impact. In the short term, the exchange rate and GDP growth were found to influence the growth of the pharmaceutical industry positively. Bidirectional causality between the growth of the pharmaceutical industry and the exchange rate was also identified using the Granger causality approach.

Research limitations/implications

This paper emphasizes developing the policy as well as making concrete decisions regarding the development of the pharmaceutical industry and economic development in Bangladesh. The results also highlight the necessity for strategic macroeconomic management to support this sector’s long-term development and global competitiveness.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this paper is conducted to identify the short- and long-run relationship of pharmaceutical industry development with the economic indicators and progress, where no study has been found on this dimension.

Details

International Journal of Pharmaceutical and Healthcare Marketing, vol. 18 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1750-6123

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 8 February 2023

Siti Hafsah Zulkarnain and Abdol Samad Nawi

The purpose of this study is to analyse numerous aspects affecting residential property price in Malaysia against macroeconomics issues such as gross domestic product (GDP)…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to analyse numerous aspects affecting residential property price in Malaysia against macroeconomics issues such as gross domestic product (GDP), exchange rate, unemployment and wage.

Design/methodology/approach

The hedonic pricing model has been adopted as econometric model for this research to investigate the relationship between residential property price against macroeconomics indicator. The data for residential property price and macroeconomic variables were collected from 1991 to 2019. Multiple linear regression had been adopted to find the relationship between the dependent and independent variables.

Findings

The result shows that the GDP has a significant positive impact on residential property price, while exchange rate has no significant impact although it was positive. In addition, the unemployment rate has a significant impact on the residential property price and has a negative relationship. Similar to the wage that shows the negative relationship with residential property prices. Moreover, during the pandemic COVID-19 in Malaysia, this research shows a more transparent view of the relationship between residential property price and the macroeconomic issues of GDP, exchange rate, unemployment and wage.

Originality/value

The findings of this research found that macroeconomics issue cannot be eliminated due to Malaysia is a developing country, and there will always be an issue that will happen, but the issues can be reduced to maximise the advantages, e.g. during COVID-19, the solution to fight against COVID-19 were crucial and weaken the macroeconomics issues.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 17 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 11 April 2024

Everton Anger Cavalheiro, Kelmara Mendes Vieira and Pascal Silas Thue

This study probes the psychological interplay between investor sentiment and the returns of cryptocurrencies Bitcoin and Ethereum. Employing the Granger causality test, the…

Abstract

Purpose

This study probes the psychological interplay between investor sentiment and the returns of cryptocurrencies Bitcoin and Ethereum. Employing the Granger causality test, the authors aim to gauge how extensively the Fear and Greed Index (FGI) can predict cryptocurrency return movements, exploring the intricate bond between investor emotions and market behavior.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors used the Granger causality test to achieve research objectives. Going beyond conventional linear analysis, the authors applied Smooth Quantile Regression, scrutinizing weekly data from July 2022 to June 2023 for Bitcoin and Ethereum. The study focus was to determine if the FGI, an indicator of investor sentiment, predicts shifts in cryptocurrency returns.

Findings

The study findings underscore the profound psychological sway within cryptocurrency markets. The FGI notably predicts the returns of Bitcoin and Ethereum, underscoring the lasting connection between investor emotions and market behavior. An intriguing feedback loop between the FGI and cryptocurrency returns was identified, accentuating emotions' persistent role in shaping market dynamics. While associations between sentiment and returns were observed at specific lag periods, the nonlinear Granger causality test didn't statistically support nonlinear causality. This suggests linear interactions predominantly govern variable relationships. Cointegration tests highlighted a stable, enduring link between the returns of Bitcoin, Ethereum and the FGI over the long term.

Practical implications

Despite valuable insights, it's crucial to acknowledge our nonlinear analysis's sensitivity to methodological choices. Specifics of time series data and the chosen time frame may have influenced outcomes. Additionally, direct exploration of macroeconomic and geopolitical factors was absent, signaling opportunities for future research.

Originality/value

This study enriches theoretical understanding by illuminating causal dynamics between investor sentiment and cryptocurrency returns. Its significance lies in spotlighting the pivotal role of investor sentiment in shaping cryptocurrency market behavior. It emphasizes the importance of considering this factor when navigating investment decisions in a highly volatile, dynamic market environment.

Details

Review of Behavioral Finance, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1940-5979

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 11 April 2024

Kamal Upadhyaya and Bruno BDeGóes

This paper aims to study the impact of economic freedom and some key macroeconomic variables on the foreign direct investment (FDI) inflow in Brazil.

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to study the impact of economic freedom and some key macroeconomic variables on the foreign direct investment (FDI) inflow in Brazil.

Design/methodology/approach

An econometric model is developed that includes FDI inflow as the dependent variable and macroeconomic variables such as the output, current account balance, the real exchange rate, openness and economic freedom as explanatory variables. Annual time series data from 1995 to 2022 is used. Before carrying out the estimation, the time series properties of the data are diagnosed using unit root tests and cointegration tests. Since the data series were found to be stationary in the first difference form and the variables in the model were cointegrated, an error correction model is developed and estimated.

Findings

The findings demonstrate that the size of the market (gross domestic product), current account balance and the economic freedom index significantly influence FDI inflow to Brazil. Although the signs of openness and the real exchange rate align with theoretical expectations, they do not attain statistical significance.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first formal study on the impact of economic freedom on the FDI inflow in Brazil. The finding of this study adds value to the understanding of FDI dynamics in Brazil, highlighting the critical role of economic freedom and market size in attracting foreign investment.

Details

Journal of Financial Economic Policy, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1757-6385

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 3 January 2023

Chin Tiong Cheng and Gabriel Hoh Teck Ling

Increasing overhang of serviced apartments poses a serious concern to the national property market. This study aims to examine the impacts of macroeconomic determinants, namely…

Abstract

Purpose

Increasing overhang of serviced apartments poses a serious concern to the national property market. This study aims to examine the impacts of macroeconomic determinants, namely, gross domestic product (GDP), consumer confidence index (CF), existing stocks (ES), incoming supply (IS) and completed project (CP) on serviced apartment price changes.

Design/methodology/approach

To achieve more accurate, quality price changes, a serviced apartment price index (SAPI) was constructed through a self-developed hedonic price index model. This study has collected 1,567 transaction data in Kuala Lumpur, covering 2009Q1–2018Q4 for price index construction and data were analysed using the vector autoregressive model, the vector error correction model and the fully modified ordinary least squares (OLS) (FMOLS).

Findings

Results of the regression model show that only GDP, ES and IS were significantly associated with SAPI, with an R2 of 0.7, where both ES and IS have inverse relationships with SAPI. More precisely, it is predicted that the price of serviced apartments will be reduced by 0.56% and 0.21% for every 1% increase in ES and IS, respectively.

Practical implications

Therefore, government monitoring of serviced apartments’ future supply is crucial by enforcing land use-planning regulations via stricter development approval of serviced apartments to safeguard and achieve more stable property prices.

Originality/value

By adopting an innovative approach to estimating the response of price change to supply and demand in a situation where there is no price indicator for serviced apartments, the study addresses the knowledge gap, especially in terms of understanding what are the key determinants of, and to what extent they influence, the SAPI.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 17 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 8 August 2023

Bilal Haider Subhani, Umar Farooq, Khurram Ashfaq and Mosab I. Tabash

This study aims to explore the potential impact of country-level governance in corporate financing structures.

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to explore the potential impact of country-level governance in corporate financing structures.

Design/methodology/approach

A two-step system generalized method of moment was used due to the endogeneity issue. The whole sample comprises 3,761 firms in five economies – China, India, Pakistan, Singapore and South Korea – from 2007 to 2016.

Findings

The results indicate that the debt option for financing is not favorable under governments with an adequate governance arrangement. However, there is a direct and significant link between country governance and equity financing because in adequate governance arrangements, the possibilities of information asymmetry are minimal and businesses consider equity a more appropriate and safer financing instrument. In contrast, firms prefer to trade-credit financing in poor governance economies, which confirms an adverse link between trade credit and adequate governance.

Practical implications

The country’s governance should be considered a sensitive matter when deciding about corporate financing.

Originality/value

This arrangement of variables has not been previously analyzed in the literature, suggesting the study’s novelty.

Details

Society and Business Review, vol. 19 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-5680

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 18 April 2023

Abdul Rashid, Muhammad Akmal and Syed Muhammad Abdul Rehman Shah

This study aimed at exploring the differential effects of different corporate governance (CG) indicators on risk management practices in Islamic financial institutions (IFIs) and…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aimed at exploring the differential effects of different corporate governance (CG) indicators on risk management practices in Islamic financial institutions (IFIs) and conventional financial institutions (CFIs) of Pakistan. It also investigated the moderating role of institutional quality (IQ) in shaping the effects of CG practices on financial institutions of Pakistan.

Design/methodology/approach

A sample of 57 financial institutions including commercial banks, insurance companies and Modarba companies over the period 2006–2017 is used to carry out the empirical analysis. The authors applied the robust two-step system-generalized method of moments estimator, which is also called the dynamic panel data estimator. They also built the PCA-based composite index of CG and IQ by using different indicators to investigate the moderating role of IQ. They used three proxies for risk taking, five for CG and one for Shari’ah governance. To test the validity of the instruments, they applied the Arellano and Bond’s (1991) AR (1) and AR (2) tests and the J-statistic of Hansen (1982).

Findings

The results provided strong evidence that several individual characteristics of CG and the composite index are significantly related to the operational risk, the liquidity risk and the Z-score (a proxy for solvency risk). The results also revealed that IQ significantly and substantially contributes in reducing the level of risks. Finally, the estimation results indicated that the effects of CG on risk management are significantly different at IFIs and CFIs. This differential impact is mainly attributed to the fundamental differences in business models, operational strategies and contractual obligations of both types of institutions.

Practical implications

The findings of this study are important for enhancing our understanding of how CG relates to risk taking in Islamic and conventional financial services industries and how good quality institutions are important for formulating the governance effects on the risk-taking behavior of financial institutions. The findings suggest that a suitable size of board should be chosen to manage the risk effectively. As the findings show that the risk-taking behavior of IFIs differs from that of CFIs, the regulators and international standard setting bodies should tailor the regulatory frameworks accordingly.

Originality/value

This paper is different from the existing studies in four aspects. First, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first empirical investigation in Pakistan, which does the comparison of IFIs and CFIs while examining the impacts of CG on risk management. Second, the paper constructs the composite index of CG by considering several different indicators of governance and examines the combined effect of governance indicators on risk management process. Third, this paper adds to the growing literature on the role of IQ by investigating whether it acts as a moderator between CG structures and risk management and if yes, then whether this moderating role is different for IFIs and CFIs. Finally, the paper builds upon the existing research work on the CG effects for different types of financial institutions by proposing a single regression based analytical framework for comparing the effects across two different types of institutions, harvesting the benefits of higher degrees of freedom and avoiding/minimizing the measurement error.

Details

Journal of Islamic Accounting and Business Research, vol. 15 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1759-0817

Keywords

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