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Book part
Publication date: 14 November 2011

Rebecca Abraham and Charles W. Harrington

We propose a method for forecasting bank solvency that quantifies bank solvency as the probability that a bank will have more than 0.25 of the cash to total asset ratio…

Abstract

We propose a method for forecasting bank solvency that quantifies bank solvency as the probability that a bank will have more than 0.25 of the cash to total asset ratio. Predictor variables include the ratio of loans secured by farmland to total loans, the ratio of loans to farmers to total loans, and the ratio of commercial and industrial loans to total loans. Loans secured by farmland to total loans significantly predicted the potential for insolvency. To a secondary extent, commercial and industrial loans significantly predicted bank failure. This result was validated with predicted probabilities significantly explaining cash to total assets.

Details

Advances in Business and Management Forecasting
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-0-85724-959-3

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 21 September 2022

Sang Won Lee, Su Bok Ryu, Tae Young Kim and Jin Q. Jeon

This paper examines how the macroeconomic environment affects the determinants of prepayment of mortgage loans from October 2004 to February 2020. For more accurate…

Abstract

This paper examines how the macroeconomic environment affects the determinants of prepayment of mortgage loans from October 2004 to February 2020. For more accurate analysis, the authors define the timing of prepayment not only before the loan maturity but also at the time when 50% or more of the loan principal is repaid. The results show that, during the global financial crisis as well as the recent period of low interest rates, macroeconomic variables such as interest rate spreads and housing prices have a different effect compared to the normal situation. Also, significant explanatory variables, such as debt to income (DTI) ratio, loan amount ratio and poor credit score, have different effects depending on the macroenvironment. On the other hand, in all periods, the possibility of prepayment increases as comprehensive loan to value (CLTV) increases, and the younger the age, the shorter the loan maturity. The results suggest that, in the case of ultralong (40 years) mortgage loans recently introduced to support young people purchasing houses, the prepayment risk can be, at least partially, migrated by offsetting the increase in prepayment by young people and the decrease in prepayment due to long loan maturity. In addition, this study confirms that the accelerated time failure model compared to the logit model and COX proportional risk model has the potential to be more appropriate as a prepayment model for individual borrower analysis in terms of the explanatory power.

Details

Journal of Derivatives and Quantitative Studies: 선물연구, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1229-988X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 27 September 2022

Rui Yao and Jing Jian Xiao

The purpose of this study is to examine the association between financial capability and informal bankruptcy, especially among families in which the respondent and/or…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to examine the association between financial capability and informal bankruptcy, especially among families in which the respondent and/or spouse borrowed student loans to fund their own education and families that did not have such loans.

Design/methodology/approach

US nationally representative data were employed. Three family types were used, families with student loans borrowed to fund respondent and/or spouse's education and education was completed (type 1 holders) or not completed (type 2 holders), and families that did not borrow student loans for respondent and/or spouse's education (non-holders). Informal bankruptcy was measured by being insolvent and late in debt payment for 60 or more days. Financial capability was measured by both an index and its various components. Multivariate logistic regressions were conducted to examine associations between financial capability and informal bankruptcy.

Findings

Generally, financial capability was negatively associated with informal bankruptcy, and student loan holders were more likely to be informally bankrupt than non-holders. However, such negative associations were statistically significant for type 1 holders and non-holders but insignificant for type 2 holders. Two desirable financial behaviors (information search and online banking) reduced the chance of informal bankruptcy for type 2 holders.

Research limitations/implications

First, cross-sectional data cannot establish a causal relationship. Second, findings using data from a single country may not be generalized to other countries.

Practical implications

Financial service professionals should help loan applicants evaluate the necessity of borrowing. Banking professionals can use the findings to develop products to meet different consumer needs. Financial educators should target different groups with different strategies in financial capability education. Policymakers should develop policies helping student loan holders complete education funded by student loans.

Originality/value

This study examines factors related to informal bankruptcy, providing insights to warning signs of bankruptcy. This study explores the potential effect of a new factor, financial capability, on informal bankruptcy, filling in a gap in the bankruptcy literature. This study recognizes differences in informal bankruptcy among various types of families and examines the different effects of financial capabilities on informal bankruptcy for different types of families.

Details

International Journal of Bank Marketing, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0265-2323

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 21 September 2022

Bernd Engelmann and Thi Thanh Lam Nguyen

This article aims to analyze the impact of COVID-19 measures by governments and central banks on International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) 9 loan loss provisions…

Abstract

Purpose

This article aims to analyze the impact of COVID-19 measures by governments and central banks on International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) 9 loan loss provisions (LLPs). Changes in the total amount of LLPs, distribution of outstanding loan balance among IFRS 9 stages and credit risk parameters used for calculation are investigated for each world region where banks report under IFRS.

Design/methodology/approach

Data for a global selection of 105 banks reporting under IFRS were collected from 2019 to 2020 annual reports, financial statements, and Pillar III reports. These data provide the basis to empirically analyze the impact of COVID-19 on LLPs.

Findings

In most world regions Stage 2 balances increase while Stage 3 balances remain comparatively stable. The credit risk parameters used for computing LLPs remained stable in 2020. However, in China, the impact of COVID-19 on banks was not detected. Mean Stage 1 balances for Chinese banks increased slightly during the pandemic. Aside from the COVID-19 impact, we find that LLPs, credit risk parameters, and loss absorption capacities are significantly lower for banks in Canada, Oceania and Western Europe compared to those in the rest of the world.

Originality/value

There exists previous research examining the COVID-19 impact on financial stability, implementation of emergency rules and country-wide analyses to anticipate default rates depending on recovery scenarios. However, this is the first global study on the immediate impact of COVID-19 on LLPs. It reveals the significant differences between world regions and provides implications about their resilience against future credit shocks.

Details

Asian Review of Accounting, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1321-7348

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 13 September 2022

Laura Gonzalez

Peer-to-peer (P2P) lending facilitates direct online lending and aims to provide financial inclusion and investment returns. Lender goals range from for-profit to…

Abstract

Purpose

Peer-to-peer (P2P) lending facilitates direct online lending and aims to provide financial inclusion and investment returns. Lender goals range from for-profit to pro-social and objective information is limited, which highlights the need to examine heuristics.

Design/methodology/approach

This study examines 1,347 lending decisions by finance students on a mock P2P site. Testimonials were used to randomly condition the financially literate lenders towards for-profit or pro-social decision-making. Each investor evaluated three loans. The three loan applications were identical except for a female or male headshot (vs an icon) and random reports of 50% funding for the female or male loan in 3 days (vs 11 days for opposite gender and 7 for icon). Previous research surveys students on a mock platform (Gonzalez, 2020) and reports similar heuristics and lifelike decisions in student and general population samples (Gonzalez and Komarova, 2014).

Findings

Lenders randomly conditioned towards pro-social lending state lower trust in borrowers. However, pro-social investors state lower risk in P2P lending and higher financial literacy. Second, pro-social investors are more confident when lending to borrowers highly trusted by other lenders, especially if the popular loan applicant is female. Third, pro-social conditioning increases lending to male applicants when the popular loan applicant is female. Fourth, pro-social investors who have experienced financial trauma have greater confidence in bad loan recovery.

Originality/value

This is the first study of heuristics in pro-social vs for-profit P2P lending. In addition, it shows that testimonials can effectively condition lending goals and affect trust and risk perceptions.

Details

Managerial Finance, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0307-4358

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 9 August 2022

Mohammed Mohi Uddin, Mohammad Tazul Islam and Omar Al Farooque

In this study, the authors explore the effects of politically controlled boards on bank loan performance in both state-owned commercial banks (SCBs) and private sector…

Abstract

Purpose

In this study, the authors explore the effects of politically controlled boards on bank loan performance in both state-owned commercial banks (SCBs) and private sector commercial banks (PCBs) in Bangladesh.

Design/methodology/approach

The data consist of 409 bank-year observations from 46 sample SCBs and PCBs of Bangladesh for the period 2008–17. The authors apply ordinary least squares pooled regression with year fixed effect for baseline econometric analyses and generalized method of moments regression for robustness tests after addressing the endogeneity issue.

Findings

The regression results reveal that the presence of bank “boards controlled by politically affiliated directors” (PA) have significant positive effects on non-performing loans (NPLs). Similarly, the presence of “boards controlled by politically affiliated directors without substantial ownership interests” (PAWOI) show positive association with NPLs. In contrast, the presence of “boards controlled by politically affiliated directors with substantial ownership interests” (PAOI) exhibit an inverse relationship with NPLs. These findings support ‘agency conflict’ arguments and document that both PA and PAWOI are detrimental to bank loan performance in Bangladesh, while PAOI do not have significant effect on increasing NPLs.

Originality/value

This study contributes to the existing bank governance literature by providing evidence from an emerging economy perspective, where politically affiliated directors (PADs) exploit their positions for personal and/or political gain at the cost of other stakeholders by taking advantage of relaxed regulatory oversights and investor protections.

Details

Journal of Accounting in Emerging Economies, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2042-1168

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 February 1986

Thomas O. Stanley, John K. Ford and Sande Richards

Three distinct product areas exist for banks — deposit gathering, customer services and loans. Up until now loans have scarcely been marketed. If they have, they have not…

Abstract

Three distinct product areas exist for banks — deposit gathering, customer services and loans. Up until now loans have scarcely been marketed. If they have, they have not been viewed in the context of what would create an optimal product mix. Yet a bank's loan mix is a major portion of its product mix and has the same dimensions of width, breadth and consistency as any other product line. It appears that a significant amount of difficulty in developing effective loan mix strategies has been due to the lack of a system to predetermine loan quality objectively. Management's attitude towards risk, the type of community and future economic conditions all play major roles in determining a suitable loan mix. Loan mix strategy should begin with a recognition of attainable goals and end with a defined programme to co‐ordinate the efforts of marketing staff and the loan department. The optimal loan mix will suit customer needs and return the desired levels of profits.

Details

International Journal of Bank Marketing, vol. 4 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0265-2323

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 August 2004

Jyotirmoy Podder and Ashraf Al Mamun

This study examines the impact of making too much provision to write off bad loans by analyzing the consequences on tax and owners' equity. This study also examines that…

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Abstract

This study examines the impact of making too much provision to write off bad loans by analyzing the consequences on tax and owners' equity. This study also examines that making too much provision has no relation to recovery of bad loans and so questions the rationality of making provision from current profit to write off loans in future. Provision can be kept on the current asset portion, that is, on interest receivable, and bad loans can be written off instantly from equity since it is a capital loss. Since making provision has no impact on collection of bad loans so as to improve the loan loss situation, loans becoming bad should be minimized at the least possible level, which will result in lower loan loss provision, which, in turn will increase the amount of tax payable as well as increase shareholders' wealth.

Details

Managerial Auditing Journal, vol. 19 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0268-6902

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 February 1985

I.S. Richardson and R.N. Bamber

Research at the University of Lancaster in 1967–69 led to the introduction of a variable loan policy which differentiates between those books in heavy and those in less…

Abstract

Research at the University of Lancaster in 1967–69 led to the introduction of a variable loan policy which differentiates between those books in heavy and those in less frequent demand. At Lancaster these are designated popular or ‘pop’ loan and long loan. The actual periods of loan are seven days (or the whole of a vacation) for popular loan and a term for long loan. There is, in addition, the short loan collection from which books are lent for very much shorter periods. This situation, though pioneered at Lancaster, is now commonly used in many British academic libraries.

Details

Program, vol. 19 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0033-0337

Article
Publication date: 1 February 2016

Liang Song and Joel C Tuoriniemi

The purpose of this paper is to examine how firms’ accounting quality affects bank loan contracting in seven emerging markets and whether these relationships are affected…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to examine how firms’ accounting quality affects bank loan contracting in seven emerging markets and whether these relationships are affected by borrowers’ governance standards.

Design/methodology/approach

The study sample period is 1999-2007 because the syndicated loan market was severely affected by the East Asian financial crisis of 1998 and the US financial crisis of 2008. The final sample includes 719 loan observations for 75 firms in seven emerging markets.

Findings

The authors find that syndicated lenders provide loans with more favorable terms such as larger amounts, longer maturity and lower interest spread to borrowers in emerging markets with higher accounting quality. The authors also find that the influences of accounting quality on syndicated loan contracting for borrowers in emerging markets exist only with higher country- and firm-level governance rankings. The results of this paper suggest that lenders place more value on accounting numbers generated by borrowers in emerging markets with stronger internal and country governance frameworks.

Originality/value

Overall, this research provides new insights about how accounting quality affects the contract design. Specifically, the extant literature has demonstrated the effects of accounting quality on financial contracts in developed countries (e.g. Bharath et al., 2008). The authors extend this analysis to borrowers in emerging markets and confirm a similar result. Most notably, the authors explore whether the relationship between accounting quality and syndicated loan contracts is influenced by borrowers’ country- and firm-level governance, and find that accounting quality matters only when accompanied by high-quality governance. This research provides new insights about how accounting quality and governance standards affect the terms of borrowing contracts in emerging markets.

Details

Pacific Accounting Review, vol. 28 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0114-0582

Keywords

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