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Importance sampling is a popular Monte Carlo method used in a variety of areas in econometrics. When the variance of the importance sampling estimator is infinite, the central limit theorem does not apply and estimates tend to be erratic even when the simulation size is large. The authors consider asymptotic trimming in such a setting. Specifically, the authors propose a bias-corrected tail-trimmed estimator such that it is consistent and has finite variance. The authors show that the proposed estimator is asymptotically normal, and has good finite-sample properties in a Monte Carlo study.

When dealing with simple functional functions, traditional reliability calculation methods, such as the linear second-order moment and quadratic second ordered moment, Monte Carlo simulation method, are powerful. However, when the functional function of the structure shows strong nonlinearity or even implicit, traditional methods often fail to meet the actual needs of engineering in terms of calculation accuracy or efficiency.

To improve the reliability analysis efficiency and calculation accuracy of complex structures, the reliability analysis methods based on parametric and semi-parametric models are analyzed.

This paper proposes a reliability method that combines the Kriging model and the importance sampling method to improve the calculation efficiency of traditional reliability analysis methods.

This method uses an active learning function and introduces an importance sampling method to screen sample points and shift the center of gravity, thereby reducing the sample size and the amount of calculation.

This paper aims to investigate the impact of in‐store sample promotions of food products on consumer trial and purchasing behavior. The authors investigate differences in the trial rate for free samples across different products and consumer types, as well as the impact of sampling on product and category purchase incidence. The results of this study are relevant for retailers and manufacturers who invest in in‐store free sample promotions.

The authors use data from a field study, which leveraged an actual free‐sample program implemented by a US grocery store chain. Data was collected on six different products promoted by in‐store free samples over six different weekends. The data collected included consumers' trial and purchasing behavior with respect to the free sample, as well as their attitudes towards the free sample that day and free sample promotions in general.

Free sampling is very effective in inducing trial, especially among lower educated consumers. For consumers who are planning to buy the product in the promoted category, free sampling can encourage switching from the planned to the promoted brand. For consumers who do not have such previous plans, free sampling can “draw“ them into the category and encourage category purchase. Samplers' interactions with the person distributing the sample or with other samplers at the scene also seem to boost post‐sample purchase incidence.

Despite the importance of free samples as a promotional tool, few studies have examined consumer trial and purchasing behavior with respect to in‐store free samples. This paper presents one of the first known field studies that examines this topic.

This article aims to develop procedures for estimation and prediction in case of Type-I hybrid censored samples drawn from a two-parameter generalized half-logistic distribution (GHLD).

The GHLD is a versatile model which is useful in lifetime modelling. Also, hybrid censoring is a time and cost-effective censoring scheme which is widely used in the literature. The authors derive the maximum likelihood estimates, the maximum product of spacing estimates and Bayes estimates with squared error loss function for the unknown parameters, reliability function and stress-strength reliability. The Bayesian estimation is performed under an informative prior set-up using the “importance sampling technique”. Afterwards, we discuss the Bayesian prediction problem under one and two-sample frameworks and obtain the predictive estimates and intervals with corresponding average interval lengths. Applications of the developed theory are illustrated with the help of two real data sets.

The performances of these estimates and prediction methods are examined under Type-I hybrid censoring scheme with different combinations of sample sizes and time points using Monte Carlo simulation techniques. The simulation results show that the developed estimates are quite satisfactory. Bayes estimates and predictive intervals estimate the reliability characteristics efficiently.

The proposed methodology may be used to estimate future observations when the available data are Type-I hybrid censored. This study would help in estimating and predicting the mission time as well as stress-strength reliability when the data are censored.

Several lessons learnt from a Bayesian analysis of basic macroeconomic time-series models are presented for the situation where some model parameters have substantial posterior probability near the boundary of the parameter region. This feature refers to near-instability within dynamic models, to forecasting with near-random walk models and to clustering of several economic series in a small number of groups within a data panel. Two canonical models are used: a linear regression model with autocorrelation and a simple variance components model. Several well-known time-series models like unit root and error correction models and further state space and panel data models are shown to be simple generalizations of these two canonical models for the purpose of posterior inference. A Bayesian model averaging procedure is presented in order to deal with models with substantial probability both near and at the boundary of the parameter region. Analytical, graphical, and empirical results using U.S. macroeconomic data, in particular on GDP growth, are presented.

Mechanical products usually require deterministic finite element analysis in the design phase to determine whether their structures meet the requirements. However, deterministic design ignores the influence of uncertainties in the design and manufacturing process of mechanical products, leading to the problem of a lack of design safety or excessive redundancy in the design. In order to improve the accuracy and rationality of the design results, a robust design method for structural reliability based on an active-learning marine predator algorithm (MPA)–backpropagation (BP) neural network is proposed.

The MPA was used to obtain the optimal weights and thresholds of a BP neural network, and an active-learning function applicable to neural networks was proposed to efficiently improve the prediction performance of the BP neural network. On this basis, a robust optimization design method for mechanical product reliability based on the active-learning MPA-BP model was proposed. Random moving quadrilateral sampling was used to obtain the sample points required for training and testing of the neural network, and the reliability sensitivity corresponding to each sample point was calculated by subset simulated significant sampling (SSIS). The total mass of the mechanical product and the structural reliability sensitivity of the trained active-learning MPA-BP model output were taken as the optimization objectives, and a multi-objective reliability-robust optimization design model was constructed, which was solved by the second-generation non-dominated ranking genetic algorithm (NSGA-II). Then, the dominance function was used in the obtained Pareto solution set to make a dominance-seeking decision to obtain the final reliability-robust optimization design solution. The feasibility of the proposed method was verified by a reliability-robust optimization design example of the bogie frame.

The prediction error of the active-learning MPA-BP neural network was smaller than those of the particle swarm optimization (PSO)-BP, marine predator algorithm (MPA)-BP and genetic algorithm (GA)-BP neural networks under the same basic parameter settings of the algorithm, which indicated that the improvement strategy proposed in this paper improved the prediction accuracy of the BP neural network. To ensure the reliability of the bogie frame, the reliability sensitivity and total mass of the bogie frame were reduced, which not only realized the lightweight design of the bogie frame, but also improved the reliability and robustness of the bogie.

The MPA algorithm with a higher optimization efficiency was introduced to find the weights and thresholds of the BP neural network. A new active-learning function was proposed to improve the prediction accuracy of the MPA-BP neural network.

Many economic and business problems require a set of random variates from the posterior density of the unknown parameters. The set of random variates can be used to integrate numerically many forms of functions. Since a closed form of the posterior density of models in time series analysis is not usually well known, it is not easy to generate a set of random variates. As a sampling scheme based on the probabilities proportional to sizes of the sample space, sampling importance resampling (SIR) method can be applied to generate a set of random variates from the posterior density. Application of SIR to signal extraction model of time series analysis is illustrated and given a set of random variates, the procedures to compute the Monte Carlo estimator of the component of signal extraction model are discussed. The procedures are illustrated with simulated data.

This paper deals with choice set generation for the estimation of route choice models. Two different frameworks are presented in the literature: one aims at generating consideration sets and one samples alternatives from the set of all paths. Most algorithms are designed to generate consideration sets but fail in general to do so because some observed paths are not generated. In the sampling approach, the observed path as well as all considered paths is in the choice set by design. However, few algorithms can be actually used in the sampling context.

In this paper, we present the two frameworks, with an emphasis on the sampling approach, and discuss the applicability of existing algorithms to each of the frameworks.

This paper aims to propose a set of six-axis robot arm welding seam tracking experiment platform based on Halcon machine vision library to resolve the curve seam tracking issue.

Robot-based and image coordinate systems are converted based on the mathematical model of the three-dimensional measurement of structured light vision and conversion relations between robot-based and camera coordinate systems. An object tracking algorithm via weighted local cosine similarity is adopted to detect the seam feature points to prevent effectively the interference from arc and spatter. This algorithm models the target state variable and corresponding observation vector within the Bayes framework and finds the optimal region with highest similarity to the image-selected modules using cosine similarity.

The paper tests the approach and the experimental results show that using metal inert-gas (MIG) welding with maximum welding current of 200A can achieve real-time accurate curve seam tracking under strong arc light and splash. Minimal distance between laser stripe and welding molten pool can reach 15 mm, and sensor sampling frequency can reach 50 Hz.

Designing a set of six-axis robot arm welding seam tracking experiment platform with a system of structured light sensor based on Halcon machine vision library; and adding an object tracking algorithm to seam tracking system to detect image feature points. By this technology, this system can track the curve seam while welding.