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African coup risk will be regionally concentrated

Location:

AFRICA

Gabon and Niger have both experienced coups this year, raising concerns over wider coup risks

Authoritarian appeal is rising in South America

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SOUTH AMERICA

With no ‘pure’ military regimes in place in this century, memories are fading

Soaring inflation raises Argentina governability risks

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ARGENTINA

Argentine inflation has reached a decades-long high in mid-2022, with no sign of easing in sight

Rising global migration stirs tensions

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INT

Politicised public discourse on migration undermines efforts to manage the phenomenon

Maghreb lockdown rush may reflect low health capacity

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NORTH AFRICA

Across North Africa, authorities have introduced stringent measures to counter COVID-19

Big tech’s share of some finance segments will surge

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INT

The network-to-activity loop lets ‘big tech’ firms gain market share quickly, but the loop may be vicious not virtuous

China war parade gives no sign of 'growing influence'

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AP

A huge military parade in Beijing marked the 70th anniversary of the end of the Second World War

Wider shift in Arab stances on Israel appears distant

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ISRAEL

The United States has been encouraging other Arab countries to follow the UAE’s example in normalising ties with Israel

Ethiopia stands on the brink of a deepening crisis

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ETHIOPIA

In the shadow of the conflict in Tigray, Ethiopia faces a multiplicity of regional conflicts

Risks and opportunities 2019: The biggest risks

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INT

The contest between China and the United States will shape many of the key risks in 2019