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Article
Publication date: 30 November 2022

Daniel Gilcher

This paper aims to provide a novel explorative perspective on fund managers’ decisions under uncertainty. The current COVID pandemic is used as a unique reference frame to…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to provide a novel explorative perspective on fund managers’ decisions under uncertainty. The current COVID pandemic is used as a unique reference frame to study how heuristics are used in institutional financial practice.

Design/methodology/approach

This study follows a grounded theory approach. A total of 282 diverse publications between October 2019 and October 2020 for 20 German mutual funds are qualitatively analyzed. A theory of adaptive heuristics for fund managers is developed.

Findings

Fund managers adapt their heuristics during a crisis and this adaptive process flows through three stages. Increasing complexity in the environment leads to the adaption of simplest heuristics around investment decisions. Three distinct stages of adaption: precrisis, uncertainty and stabilization emerge from the data.

Research limitations/implications

This study’s data is based on publicly available information. There might be a discrepancy between publicly stated and internal reasoning.

Practical implications

Money managers can use the provided framework to assess their decision-making in crises. The developed adaptive processes of heuristics can assist capital allocators who choose and rate fund managers. Policymakers and regulators can learn about the aspects of investor decisions that their actions and communication address. Teaching can use this study to exemplify the nature of financial markets as adaptive systems rather than static structures.

Originality/value

To the best of the author’s/authors’ knowledge, this study is the first to systematically explore the heuristics of professional money managers because they navigate a large-scale exogenous crisis.

Details

Qualitative Research in Financial Markets, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1755-4179

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 28 March 2015

Thomas D. Beamish and Nicole Woolsey Biggart

Following Philip Selznick’s lead in using pragmatist social science to understand issues of public concern we conducted a study of failed innovation in the commercial…

Abstract

Following Philip Selznick’s lead in using pragmatist social science to understand issues of public concern we conducted a study of failed innovation in the commercial construction industry (CCI). We find that social heuristics – collectively constructed and maintained interpretive decision-making frames – significantly shape economic and non-economic decision-making practices. Social heuristics are the outcome of industry-based “institutionalization processes” and are widely held and commonly relied on in CCI to reduce uncertainty endemic to decision-making; they provide actors with both a priori and ex post facto justifications for economic decisions that appear socially rational to industry co-participants. In the CCI – a project-centered production network – social heuristics as shared institutions sustain network-based social order but in so doing discourage novel technologies and impede innovation. Social heuristics are actor-level constructs that reflect macro-level institutional arrangements and networked production relations. The concept of social heuristics offers the promise of developing a genuinely social theory of individual economic choice and action that is historically informed, contextually situated, and neither psychologically nor structurally reductionist.

Details

Institutions and Ideals: Philip Selznick’s Legacy for Organizational Studies
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78441-726-0

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 28 August 2020

Sid Hanna Saleh and Richard A. Hunt

When entrepreneurs create new ventures, they struggle with making consequential decisions under severe restrictions such as tight deadlines, limited resources, and lack of…

Abstract

When entrepreneurs create new ventures, they struggle with making consequential decisions under severe restrictions such as tight deadlines, limited resources, and lack of information. Making challenging decisions inherently requires creativity as entrepreneurs improvise and work around the limitations they face. Under these conditions, entrepreneurs resort to their heuristics and biases instead of rational decision models. Entrepreneurs employ – sometimes for better and sometimes for worse – a myriad of rule-setting heuristics and experience-based biases to navigate the difficult path between novelty and utility. In this chapter, the authors answer Shepherd, Williams, and Patzelt’s (2015) call for research into how entrepreneurs leverage heuristics and biases in decision-making and the benefits they gain as a result. The authors explore how entrepreneurs introduce heuristics and biases at different stages of their decision-making process using a qualitative study of 21 new ventures. The results attest to entrepreneurs’ ingenuity and creativity in managing complexity, ambiguity, and uncertainty.

Details

The Entrepreneurial Behaviour: Unveiling the cognitive and emotional aspect of entrepreneurship
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78973-508-6

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 27 October 2015

Moritz Loock and Fredrik Hacklin

While recent research has referred to a cognitive view on “business modelling,” it remains unclear in specifying the cognitive foundations of how such modelling happens…

Abstract

While recent research has referred to a cognitive view on “business modelling,” it remains unclear in specifying the cognitive foundations of how such modelling happens. This paper proposes building on heuristics as models of individual cognition, which have proved effective foundations of adaptive individual and managerial behaviors. By also drawing on gestalt theory to specify principles of modelling as rule-based form giving, we propose business modelling as a managerial cognitive process of configuring heuristics. The paper makes three contributions. First, we introduce heuristics to the business modelling literature and so provide an established theory of adaptive individual behavior that strengthens the cognitive foundations of business modelling. Second, we conceptualize and theorize on the cognitive activity of business modelling as an iterative process of configuring heuristics by applying gestalt principles. Although the literature on business models has referred to the theories of configurations and gestalt, it has been left to this work to make the theoretical linkages between heuristics, gestalt theory and business modelling explicit. Third, our work contributes to the micro-foundations of the cognitive processes underlying business modelling and thus to broader accounts of adaptive managerial behaviors.

Details

Business Models and Modelling
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78560-462-1

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 5 November 2016

Tatjana V. Kazakova and Daniel Geiger

The way organizations cope with uncertainty in strategic decision making is prominently discussed. Concepts such as heuristics and simple rules are gaining increasing…

Abstract

The way organizations cope with uncertainty in strategic decision making is prominently discussed. Concepts such as heuristics and simple rules are gaining increasing attention in strategic management research. However, despite their importance, little is known how heuristics and simple rules operate. Our qualitative study reveals that, first, strategic decisions consist of three basic elements: single rules, rule patterns, and emotional handling. Second, we find that firms develop generalizable rule patterns which follow a sequential order of inter-linked rules. Based on the findings we introduce the concept of organizational heuristics as inter-linked rule patterns drawing on organizational experience.

Details

Uncertainty and Strategic Decision Making
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78635-170-8

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 28 June 2022

Maqsood Ahmad

This article aims to systematically review the literature published in recognized journals focused on cognitive heuristic-driven biases and their effect on investment…

Abstract

Purpose

This article aims to systematically review the literature published in recognized journals focused on cognitive heuristic-driven biases and their effect on investment management activities and market efficiency. It also includes some of the research work on the origins and foundations of behavioral finance, and how this has grown substantially to become an established and particular subject of study in its own right. The study also aims to provide future direction to the researchers working in this field.

Design/methodology/approach

For doing research synthesis, a systematic literature review (SLR) approach was applied considering research studies published within the time period, i.e. 1970–2021. This study attempted to accomplish a critical review of 176 studies out of 256 studies identified, which were published in reputable journals to synthesize the existing literature in the behavioral finance domain-related explicitly to cognitive heuristic-driven biases and their effect on investment management activities and market efficiency as well as on the origins and foundations of behavioral finance.

Findings

This review reveals that investors often use cognitive heuristics to reduce the risk of losses in uncertain situations, but that leads to errors in judgment; as a result, investors make irrational decisions, which may cause the market to overreact or underreact – in both situations, the market becomes inefficient. Overall, the literature demonstrates that there is currently no consensus on the usefulness of cognitive heuristics in the context of investment management activities and market efficiency. Therefore, a lack of consensus about this topic suggests that further studies may bring relevant contributions to the literature. Based on the gaps analysis, three major categories of gaps, namely theoretical and methodological gaps, and contextual gaps, are found, where research is needed.

Practical implications

The skillful understanding and knowledge of the cognitive heuristic-driven biases will help the investors, financial institutions and policymakers to overcome the adverse effect of these behavioral biases in the stock market. This article provides a detailed explanation of cognitive heuristic-driven biases and their influence on investment management activities and market efficiency, which could be very useful for finance practitioners, such as an investor who plays at the stock exchange, a portfolio manager, a financial strategist/advisor in an investment firm, a financial planner, an investment banker, a trader/broker at the stock exchange or a financial analyst. But most importantly, the term also includes all those persons who manage corporate entities and are responsible for making their financial management strategies.

Originality/value

Currently, no recent study exists, which reviews and evaluates the empirical research on cognitive heuristic-driven biases displayed by investors. The current study is original in discussing the role of cognitive heuristic-driven biases in investment management activities and market efficiency as well as the history and foundations of behavioral finance by means of research synthesis. This paper is useful to researchers, academicians, policymakers and those working in the area of behavioral finance in understanding the role that cognitive heuristic plays in investment management activities and market efficiency.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 20 July 2022

Simone Guercini and Matilde Milanesi

This paper aims to provide a wide picture of studies on heuristics for international decision-making with a focus on foreign market entry. This paper systematically…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to provide a wide picture of studies on heuristics for international decision-making with a focus on foreign market entry. This paper systematically reviews studies published in the international business and international marketing domain to examine heuristically based decisions for foreign market entry.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper proposes a systematic literature review and an in-depth analysis of 32 papers published between 1997 and 2021 dealing with foreign market entry and the use of heuristics for international decision-making.

Findings

Even if the marketing and management literature is in many ways permeable to the debate around heuristics developed in experimental psychology and cognitive science, international business and international marketing studies on the one hand recognize that international decision-making, especially when dealing with foreign market entry, is strongly characterized by uncertainty, on the other hand, there isn’t a developed and systematized literature about it. This paper shows key topics and areas fundamental to foreign market entry in which heuristics are applied by decision makers and their effectiveness.

Originality/value

A systematic review of the use of heuristics for foreign market entry decision-making can represent a useful step for a more organic development of knowledge about the more general use of heuristics for international decision-making. Understanding the decision-making process on the modes of entry in foreign markets is a key topic for international marketing and international business scholars and practitioners.

Details

Management Research Review, vol. 45 no. 9
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2040-8269

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 27 May 2022

Maqsood Ahmad, Qiang Wu, Muhammad Naveed and Shoaib Ali

This study aims to explore and clarify the mechanism by which cognitive heuristics influence strategic decision-making during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to explore and clarify the mechanism by which cognitive heuristics influence strategic decision-making during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in an emerging economy.

Design/methodology/approach

Data collection was conducted through a survey completed by 213 top-level managers from firms located in the twin cities of Pakistan. A convenient, purposively sampling technique and snowball method were used for data collection. To examine the relationship between cognitive heuristics and strategic decision-making, hypotheses were tested by using correlation and regression analysis.

Findings

The article provides further insights into the relationship between cognitive heuristics and strategic decision-making during the COVID-19 pandemic. The results suggest that cognitive heuristics (under-confidence, self-attribution and disposition effect) have a markedly negative influence on the strategic decision-making during the COVID-19 pandemic in an emerging economy.

Practical implications

The article encourages strategic decision-makers to avoid relying on cognitive heuristics or their feelings when making strategic decisions. It provides awareness and understanding of cognitive heuristics in strategic decision-making, which could be very useful for business actors such as managers and entire organizations. The findings of this study will help academicians, researchers and policymakers of emerging countries. Academicians can formulate new behavioural models that can depict the solutions to dealing with an uncertain situation like COVID-19. Policymakers and strategic decision-making teams can develop crisis management strategies based on concepts from behavioral strategy to better deal with similar circumstances in the future, such as COVID-19.

Originality/value

The paper’s novelty is that the authors have explored the mechanism by which cognitive heuristics influence strategic decision-making during the COVID-19 pandemic in an emerging economy. It adds to the literature in strategic management, explicitly probing the impact of cognitive heuristics on strategic decision-making; this field is in its initial stage, even in developed countries, while little work has been done in emerging countries.

Peer review

The peer review history for this article is available at https://publons.com/publon/10.1108/IJSE-10-2021-0636.

Details

International Journal of Social Economics, vol. 49 no. 10
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0306-8293

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 27 April 2022

Mohamad Hjeij

This study aims to explore the heuristics applied by tech entrepreneurs in the Middle East during the opportunity evaluation process.

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to explore the heuristics applied by tech entrepreneurs in the Middle East during the opportunity evaluation process.

Design/methodology/approach

A multiple case-based methodology was applied, which consisted of semi-structured interviews with entrepreneurial experts from different cities in the Middle East. Qualitative data analysis was then performed with inductive thematic coding using the Eisenhardt method.

Findings

The results suggest that entrepreneurs mostly use six heuristics to evaluate opportunities quickly. Three of them are related to the opportunity as an abstract idea, and three are connected with the person (s) involved in the opportunity. In addition, entrepreneurs in the Middle East were more interested in the personal characteristics of the opportunity presenter than in the opportunity itself.

Research limitations/implications

Identifying the heuristics applied by experts may neglect the perspective of the community of entrepreneurs as a whole. Hence, future research should target a wider segment of entrepreneurs. Furthermore, the effect of applying such heuristics on the strategic growth of startups remains an open question.

Practical implications

The identified heuristics are aligned with the hands-on approach of entrepreneurship and can be applied as a decision-making technique for aspiring entrepreneurs who seek to succeed in this region.

Originality/value

This study explores the under-examined topic of heuristics in opportunity evaluation within the regional context of the Middle East, which has also been scarcely investigated. It sheds light on the importance of cultural factors in identifying the cognitive shortcuts used in a business context.

Details

Journal of Entrepreneurship in Emerging Economies, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2053-4604

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 16 June 2021

Kirsten Rauwerda and Frank Jan De Graaf

In order to better understand how heuristics are used in practice, the authors explore what type of heuristics is used in the managerial domain of financial advisors to…

Abstract

Purpose

In order to better understand how heuristics are used in practice, the authors explore what type of heuristics is used in the managerial domain of financial advisors to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and what influences the shaping of these heuristics. In doing so, the authors detect possible fast-and-frugal heuristics in day-to-day decision-making of independent financial advisers who help owners of SMEs to acquire capital (e.g. loans, factoring, leasing and equity).

Design/methodology/approach

The authors inductively assessed the work of financial advisers of SMEs. Based on group discussions, the authors drew up a semi-structured interview-protocol with descriptive questions about how financial advisers come to a deal for their clients. The interviews of 19 professionals were analysed by relating them to the theory of fast-and-frugal heuristics.

Findings

Within their decision-making, advisers estimate the likelihood of acceptance by a few financial providers they know well in their personal network with a strong bias towards traditional banking products, although there are a large number of alternatives on the Dutch market. “Less is more” seems to be a relevant principle when defined as satisficing. Heuristics help advisers to deal with behavioural and economic limitations. Also, the authors have found that client interaction, previous working experience and the company the adviser is working for influences the shaping of the simple rules the adviser is using.

Research limitations/implications

The study shows how difficult it is to understand the ecological rationality of a certain group of professionals and to understand the “less is more” principle. Financial advisers to SMEs use cognitive shortcuts and simple rules to advise SME-owners, based on previous experiences, but it is difficult to determine whether that leads to the same or even better solutions for them and their clients than using probability theory and financial optimisation models. Within heuristics, satisficing seems to be a dominant mechanism. Here, heuristics help advisers in recognising possibilities by searching for similarities between a current financing case and previous experiences. The data suggests that if “less is more” is defined as satisficing for one or more stakeholders involved, the principle dominates the decision making of financial advisers of SME's.

Practical implications

The authors suggest the relevance of a behavioural approach to finance by assessing the day-to-day decisions of financial advisers of SMEs. Also, the authors suggest that financial advisers are guided by previous experiences, and they do not fully assess a wide range of options in their work but need shortcuts to fulfil the needs of their clients.

Originality/value

The study comes close to day-to-day decision-making in finance by assessing how professionals make decisions. The authors try to understand types of heuristics in relation with “ecological rationality” and the less is more principle. The authors assess financial advisers of SME-companies, a group that has gotten little research attention until now. The influence of client interaction and of the company the adviser is working for is remarkable in the shaping of the advisers' simple rules.

Details

Management Decision, vol. 59 no. 7
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0025-1747

Keywords

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