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Open Access
Article
Publication date: 13 March 2018

Teik-Kheong Tan and Merouane Lakehal-Ayat

The impact of volatility crush can be devastating to an option buyer and results in a substantial capital loss, even with a directionally correct strategy. As a result, most…

2000

Abstract

Purpose

The impact of volatility crush can be devastating to an option buyer and results in a substantial capital loss, even with a directionally correct strategy. As a result, most volatility plays are for option sellers, but the profit they can achieve is limited and the sellers carry unlimited risk. This paper aims to demonstrate the dynamics of implied volatility (IV) as being influenced by effects of persistence, leverage, market sentiment and liquidity. From the exploratory factor analysis (EFA), they extract four constructs and the results from the confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) indicated a good model fit for the constructs.

Design/methodology/approach

This section describes the methodology used for conducting the study. This includes the study area, study approach, sources of data, sampling technique and the method of data analysis.

Findings

Although there is extensive literature on methods for estimating IV dynamics during earnings announcement, few researchers have looked at the impact of expected market maker move, IV differential and IV Rank on the IV path after the earnings announcement. One reason for this research gap is because of the recent introduction of weekly options for equities by the Chicago Board of Options Exchange (CBOE) back in late 2010. Even then, the CBOE only released weekly options four individual equities – Bank of America (BAC.N), Apple (AAPL.O), Citigroup (C.N) and US-listed shares of BP (BP.L) (BP.N). The introduction of weekly options provided more trading flexibility and precision timing from shorter durations. This automatically expanded expiration choices, which in turned offered greater access and flexibility from the perspective of trading volatility during earnings announcement. This study has demonstrated the impact of including market sentiment and liquidity into the forecasting model for IV during earnings. This understanding in turn helps traders to formulate strategies that can circumvent the undefined risk associated with trading options strategies such as writing strangles.

Research limitations/implications

The first limitation of the study is that the firms included in the study are relatively large, and the results of the study can therefore not be generalized to medium sized and small firms. The second limitation lies in the current sample size, which in many cases was not enough to be able to draw reliable conclusions on. Scaling the sample size up is only a function of time and effort. This is easily overcome and should not be a limitation in the future. The third limitation concerns the measurement of the variables. Under the assumption of a normal distribution of returns (i.e. stock prices follow a random walk process), which means that the distribution of returns is symmetrical, one can estimate the probabilities of potential gains or losses associated with each amount. This means the standard deviation of securities returns, which is called historical volatility and is usually calculated as a moving average, can be used as a risk indicator. The prices used for the calculations are usually the closing prices, but Parkinson (1980) suggests that the day’s high and low prices would provide a better estimate of real volatility. One can also refine the analysis with high-frequency data. Such data enable the avoidance of the bias stemming from the use of closing (or opening) prices, but they have only been available for a relatively short time. The length of the observation period is another topic that is still under debate. There are no criteria that enable one to conclude that volatility calculated in relation to mean returns over 20 trading days (or one month) and then annualized is any more or less representative than volatility calculated over 130 trading days (or six months) and then annualized, or even than volatility measured directly over 260 trading days (one year). Nonetheless, the guidelines adopted in this study represent the best practices of researchers thus far.

Practical implications

This study has indicated that an earnings announcement can provide a volatility mispricing opportunity to allow an investor to profit from a sudden, sharp drop in IV. More specifically, the methodology developed by Tan and Bing is now well supported both empirically and theoretically in terms of qualifying opportunities that can be profitable because of the volatility crush. Conventionally, the option strategy of shorting strangles carries unlimited theoretical risk; however, the methodology has demonstrated that this risk can be substantially reduced if followed judiciously. This profitable strategy relies on a set of qualifying parameters including liquidity, premium collection, volatility differential, expected market move and market sentiment. Building upon this framework, the understanding of the effects of persistence and leverage resulted in further reducing the risk associated with trading options during earnings announcements. As a guideline, the sentiment and liquidity variables help to qualify a trade and the effects of persistence and leverage help to close the qualified trade.

Social implications

The authors find a positive association between the effects of market sentiment, liquidity, persistence and leverage in the dynamics of IV during earnings announcement. These findings substantiate further the four factors that influence IV dynamics during earnings announcement and conclude that just looking at persistence and leverage alone will not generate profitable trading opportunities.

Originality/value

The impact of volatility crush can be devastating to the option buyer with substantial capital loss, even for a directionally correct strategy. As a result, most volatility plays are for option sellers; however, the profit is limited and the sellers carry unlimited risk. The authors demonstrate the dynamics of IV as being influenced by effects of persistence, leverage, market sentiment and liquidity. From the EFA, they extracted four constructs and the results from the CFA indicated a good model fit for the constructs. Using EFA, CFA and Bayesian analysis, how this model can help investors formulate the right strategy to achieve the best risk/reward mix is demonstrated. Using Bayesian estimation and IV differential to proxy for differences of opinion about term structures in option pricing, the authors find a positive association among the effects of market sentiment, liquidity, persistence and leverage in the dynamics of IV during earnings announcement.

Details

PSU Research Review, vol. 2 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2399-1747

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 27 April 2020

Murat Gunduz and Hesham Ahmed Elsherbeny

This paper covers the development of a multidimensional contract administration performance model (CAPM) for construction projects. The proposed CAPM is intended to be used by the…

14247

Abstract

Purpose

This paper covers the development of a multidimensional contract administration performance model (CAPM) for construction projects. The proposed CAPM is intended to be used by the industry stakeholders to measure the construction contract administration (CCA) performance and identify the strengths and weaknesses of the CCA system for running or completed projects.

Design/methodology/approach

The research design follows a sequential mixed methodology of qualitative and quantitative data collection and analysis. In the first phase, contract administration indicators were collected from relevant literature. In the second phase, an online questionnaire was prepared, and data were collected and analyzed using the crisp value of fuzzy membership function, and structural equation modeling (SEM). The fuzzy set was chosen for this study due to the presence of uncertainty and fuzziness associated with the importance of several key indicators affecting the CCA performance. Finally, SEM was used to test and analyze interrelationships among constructs of CCA performance.

Findings

The data collected from 336 construction professionals worldwide through an online survey was utilized to develop the fuzzy structural equation model. The goodness-of-fit and reliability tests validated the model. The study concluded a significant correlation between CCA performance, CCA operational indicators, and the process groups.

Originality/value

The contribution of this paper to the existing knowledge is the development of a fuzzy structural equation model that serves as a measurement tool for the contract administration performance. This is the first quantitative structural equation model to capture contract administration performance. The model consists of 93 Construction Contract Administration(CCA) performance indicators categorized into 11 project management process groups namely: project governance and start-up; team management; communication and relationship management; quality and acceptance management; performance monitoring and reporting management; document and record management; financial management; changes and control management; claims and dispute resolution management; contract risk management and contract closeout management.

Details

Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, vol. 27 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0969-9988

Keywords

Content available
Book part
Publication date: 25 January 2023

Abstract

Details

Cutting Edge Research Methods in Hospitality and Tourism
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-80455-064-9

Content available
Book part
Publication date: 11 November 2019

Abstract

Details

Methodological Issues in Management Research: Advances, Challenges, and the Way Ahead
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78973-973-2

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 6 August 2021

Naji Mansour Nomran and Razali Haron

There is much debate in the literature about how the performance of Islamic banks (IBs) should be measured. Basically, IBs’ business models are different from that of conventional…

3241

Abstract

Purpose

There is much debate in the literature about how the performance of Islamic banks (IBs) should be measured. Basically, IBs’ business models are different from that of conventional banks; thus, the performance of IBs should be measured by using a Sharīʿah-based approach. This paper considers zakat (Islamic tax) as an alternative indicator to measure the performance of IBs. This paper aims to examine whether zakat ratios can be used as Islamic performance (ISPER) indicators for IBs besides the conventional performance (COPER) indicators.

Design/methodology/approach

The investigation covered a sample of 214 yearly observations of 37 IBs located in Indonesia, Malaysia, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates for the period 2007–2015. This study used a single-factor congeneric model and confirmatory factor analysis, performed using the AMOS 23.0 software.

Findings

The findings assert that the discriminant validity of multi-bank performance, as measured by ISPER [zakat on assets (ZOA) and zakat on equity (ZOE)] and COPER indicators (return on assets, return on equity and operational efficiency in terms of assets), is very high. Hence, ISPER and COPER measurements are valid, either together to measure the multi-performance of IBs from both the Islamic and conventional perspectives, or independently as each measurement is valid to measure the Islamic and conventional performance if it is used separately.

Research limitations/implications

This paper does not investigate whether the findings are constant across time. This represents one of the limitations of this study.

Practical implications

It is strongly recommended that IBs calculate and disclose zakat ratios, particularly ZOA and ZOE, in their annual reports. Researchers and academicians should use these ratios for measuring the ISPER of IBs, either along with COPER or separately.

Originality/value

Empirical evidence is provided in this paper on the development and validity of zakat ratios as ISPER indicators in the Islamic banking industry. Zakat ratios are suitable indicators that can measure IBs’ performance and achieve the goals of IBs as well as those of Islamic economics. Technically, zakat has a dynamic ability to reflect the profitability of IBs. The more the IBs generate profit, the more they pay zakat. Furthermore, the greater the total assets of IBs, the higher the amount of zakat that they should pay. Thus, zakat ratios can be used as profitability measurements as in the case of tax ratios.

Details

ISRA International Journal of Islamic Finance, vol. 14 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0128-1976

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 16 June 2023

Afeez Tunde Jinadu

Upholding assessment ethics are common concerns during annual public examination performance appraisal. Previous studies have focused more on examination stakeholder: testees…

Abstract

Purpose

Upholding assessment ethics are common concerns during annual public examination performance appraisal. Previous studies have focused more on examination stakeholder: testees outside proctors however, assessment ethics cannot be studied excluding proctors variables therefore, the study investigated consistency of a structural equation modelling of security, environment, professionalism, testing and assessment ethics.

Design/methodology/approach

Ex-post facto design was adopted. Simple random sampling technique was employed to choose 90 proctors drawn from 45 colleges. Proctors Examination Ethics Questionnaire (reliability = 0.86) was used to collect data for the study. Data collected were analysed using path analysis at 0.05 significant levels.

Findings

Out of the six hypothesised paths significantly explaining the consistency of the causal model. Test security, environment and professionalism accounted for both direct and indirect effects on assessment ethics. All model fit indices were established to explain testing and assessment model.

Research limitations/implications

Few proctor variables were studied, therefore assessment ethics may not be explained other than through proctor variables considered in this study.

Practical implications

Assessment ethics may not be violated if test security, testing environment and professionalism are not cared for during test administration as shown in the study.

Social implications

It added to knowledge base in ethical areas of assessment, a 21st-century proctors in upholding testing and assessment ethics, security, environment and professionalism are to be considered.

Originality/value

There was a positive causal effect of security, environment and professionalism on testing and assessment ethics among proctors in public examinations.

Details

Arab Gulf Journal of Scientific Research, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1985-9899

Keywords

Content available
Book part
Publication date: 23 August 2021

Martha Ríos Manríquez

Abstract

Details

Empowerment, Transparency, Technological Readiness and their Influence on Financial Performance, from a Latin American Perspective
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-80117-382-7

Content available
Book part
Publication date: 25 July 2023

Deepa Jain, Manoj Kumar Dash and K.S. Thakur

Abstract

Details

The Sustainability of Financial Innovation in E-Payment Systems
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-80455-884-3

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 29 June 2018

Pedro Cavalcanti G. Ferreira and Elaine Rabelo Neiva

Understanding the reasons that lead civil servants to abandon their offices is an important step towards qualifying personnel management in the Federal Administration. The purpose…

1911

Abstract

Purpose

Understanding the reasons that lead civil servants to abandon their offices is an important step towards qualifying personnel management in the Federal Administration. The purpose of this study is to present an initial approach to the subject and to investigate variables that favor or reduce the turnover intention among civil servants in the Federal Executive Branch.

Design/methodology/approach

To fulfill the objective stated, the study resorted to variables of values, expectations and affective commitment to the organization. Variables were tested in a model of structural equations capable of verifying if these are antecedent or not of the turnover intention levels in a sample comprising 228 civil servants.

Findings

The validation of a model of structural equations unveiled a statistically relevant relation of dependence among values, expectations and the affective commitment to the organization. Moreover, engagement proved to be a mediator of the relation between the other variables and the turnover intention.

Originality/value

The work contributed to literature by presenting evidence that low expectations among civil servants bring low affective commitment which, in turn, leads to higher willingness to quit organizations. On the other hand, the same model showed that self-transcendent values, typical to the public career (serve the public), prevail among civil servants and positively impact commitment. This scenario shows that in people management all these elements of values and expectations must be worked on to reduce the number of civil servants that quit the government every year, as well as the high costs associated with quitting.

Details

RAUSP Management Journal, vol. 53 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2531-0488

Keywords

Content available
Book part
Publication date: 13 August 2018

Abstract

Details

Advances in Management Accounting
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78756-440-4

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