Search results

The purpose of this paper is to propose a framework for understanding, predicting and analyzing how future service technologies can lead to value co-creation at different stages of a value chain.

For organizations, future service technologies are growing in importance and will become a crucial means to survival. It is clear that future service technologies will increase the opportunity to reduce costs and create efficiency, but it is not equally clear how future service technologies enable value creation for customers and users. On this premise, the study proposes a conceptual framework.

The framework illustrates how future service technologies can lead to value creation for customers. The paper also portrays opportunities and potential pitfalls with future service technologies for organizations.

Several researchers are focusing on innovative technologies. Many business companies are talking about how to implement them and increase their profit. However, less attention is devoted to the ways in which future service technologies will lead to benefits and the experience of service for customers and users using them. This paper represents an original attempt to illustrate that.

Advances in Artificial Intelligence (AI) technologies and Autonomous Unmanned Vehicles are shaping our daily lives, society, and will continue to transform how we will fight future wars. Advances in AI technologies have fueled an explosion of interest in the military and political domain. As AI technologies evolve, there will be increased reliance on these systems to maintain global security. For the individual and society, AI presents challenges related to surveillance, personal freedom, and privacy. For the military, we will need to exploit advances in AI technologies to support the warfighter and ensure global security. The integration of AI technologies in the battlespace presents advantages, costs, and risks in the future battlespace. This chapter will examine the issues related to advances in AI technologies, as we examine the benefits, costs, and risks associated with integrating AI and autonomous systems in society and in the future battlespace.

The aim of this paper is to describe procedural characteristics of the 4th technology foresight (TF) using search engines to discover emerging issues; analytic framework development to discover future needs; future technologies considering future needs as well as technology development; detailed description of future technology; analytical discussions of Delphi survey results; developing spatial-specific scenarios and illustrations; and examining possible adverse effects of future technologies. Korea performs TF every 5 years to establish science and technology policy and strategies. In the 4th TF, future technologies that might be developed by 2035 were discovered and Delphi survey was conducted to examine current development status, anticipated times of technology development and public use, plans to secure these technologies, etc.

This paper divides procedure employed in the 4th TF into three steps and explains seven characteristics related to its procedure.

Improvement of the TF procedure will increase the reliability and applicability of its results.

This paper consists of original results which include improved procedure and its implication by researchers who participated in the 4th TF. It will provide a useful example for other nations, hoping to introduce TF to set up national science and technology policy.

The purpose of this paper is to propose and empirically validates a measure of the anticipation of new technologies (ANT) construct, first suggested by Hayes and Wheelwright (1984). ANT allows establishment of a sustained competitive advantage through acquiring new technologies and the capability to use them, in advance of actual need. The theoretical foundation for ANT is developed using the literature on absorptive capacity. Several elements of supply chain management are proposed as antecedents to ANT.

Perceptual survey data from 317 manufacturing plants in ten countries was used to test the hypotheses using structural equation modeling and confirmatory factor analysis.

The key supply chain antecedents of ANT are supply chain planning, internal integration and supplier integration. ANT was related to both operational and cost performance.

Potential limitations include the use of an existing database, the plant as the unit of analysis and the need to include customer integration, as well as supplier integration. The results demonstrate the competitive importance of the ANT construct and the key role that relationships with suppliers play in its development.

This research sheds new light on a construct whose roots are inherently practical. Suppliers and their extended networks are an important source of external knowledge about technology and future customer needs, thus, supply chain relationships are an important contributor to ANT.

Although the role of technology in establishing a competitive advantage has been thoroughly studied, the effectiveness of developing technologies that are expected to be important in the future has not, although this concept was first introduced almost 30 years ago. The authors use absorptive capacity to develop the role of supply chain relationships in building an organization's ANT capability, contributing to the operations strategy literature by grounding a practical construct in the theoretical literature and demonstrating its importance.

Accurate and timely foresight of future trends and changes in science and technology (S&T) is a key to national competitiveness. The purpose of this paper is to describe recent technological foresight conducted by the Technology Foresight Center at the Korea Institute of Science and Technology Evaluation and Planning. The authors also address current issues and problems encountered in the process of technology foresight (TF) in Korea.

The authors used TF methodologies which included bibliometrics, expert panels, SWOT analysis, and conferences/seminars.

The authors derived 20 future issues and 40 future needs in S&T from the five areas of global mega trends; then 200 future technologies were suggested with a time horizon of 40 years, from 2010 to 2050, for solving those future issues and needs. Finally, the authors suggested outlooks for technological development in the years 2020 and 2050.

It is time to evaluate Korean TF exercises which were started 15 years ago. The evaluation of TF will help guide TF and inform policy and decision makers.

The findings can help policy makers shape future governmental S&T policy in Korea. The final result of this work was applied to the second S&T Framework Plan in Korea, in which 90 technologies were identified as national key technologies for the next five years, from 2008 to 2012.

To the best of the authors' knowledge, there are no studies suggesting not only future technologies based on solving future issues and needs but also outlooks for technology development in the years 2020 and 2050.

The threat environment countries face is a dynamic one, with many emerging technologies. This paper presents unique challenges as countries evaluate which technologies to pursue in support of national security. Rather than addressing a broad range of strategic options, this paper limits its scope to a single type of aircraft. Thus, the purpose of this paper is to demonstrate a methodology to counter the most likely future threats to a long‐range strike aircraft.

To address future threats, the paper examined the most likely course of technology development within the context of various alternative futures. To decompose general threat scenarios into specific risk scenarios, the risk filtering, ranking, and management (RFRM) framework was used. After identifying the most significant risk scenarios, decision tree analysis provided insight into whether or not to pursue a given technology (e.g. electromagnetic pulse hardening, redundant control structures, etc.).

It is found the RFRM and decision tree tools to be very complementary in developing a credible scenario‐based decision model that incorporates expected technology development and alternative futures.

The paper is not intended to be a technical report on advanced technologies or predict future technologies and the world geopolitical situation. However, the approach explored should serve as a foundation for more detailed analysis that incorporates formal studies, technology demonstrations, and additional research into a coherent decision structure that can be evaluated and adjusted over time.

The paper combines the RFRM and decision tree tools to examine concepts from both technology development and alternative futures.

To anticipate science and technology (S&T) changes and shifts in the competitive environment for the preparation of strategic development in an organization, this paper aims to address a structured analysis method for future technology trajectories and interactions by mapping and associating the future technology themes in foresight reports with a state‐of‐the art technology classification system. The objective of this paper is to develop an integrative method for systematically clustering, analyzing and visualizing the path for technology development and transformation.

Delphi topics related to sustainable energy were collected from strategic foresight reports of Japan, South Korea and China, and used as sources for future technology themes analysis. A standard mapping taxonomy based on international patent classification system was used to map out the technology concept described in these future technology themes. Technology interactions can be identified through a causal effect analysis during the mapping, and the results among selected countries are cross‐compared and visualized in an aggregated view.

By this standard mapping taxonomy and structured analysis, future technology themes in strategic foresight reports from countries in focus are systematically mapped and integrated for viewing future technology options and interactions. Similarities and discrepancies for prospecting the future technology trajectory among these countries are also identified.

It would be a significant contribution if this structured analysis could be applied more broadly across different geographic regions or across research areas in foresight reports. This research may help to solve the practical difficulties faced during the secondary analysis of foresight studies in foresight preparatory studies by providing a consistent classification framework to make comparison and aggregation of future technology options from different countries/regions. Also, this classification framework can provide a bridge for linking with current technology performance such as patent productivity or quality and help in identifying the gaps between the probable future changes in S&T and the current capability.

The integrative method in this research provides a way to combine both the advantage of strategic technology foresight and competitive technology intelligence by utilizing the results deriving from the former as targets for analysis and the analytic practice deriving from the latter to identify the possible competitive or cooperative landscapes in the future.

The world of work and education is changing at a rapid pace, driven by continued technological disruption and automation. The future is uncertain and difficult to envisage. A futures thinking scenario planning approach is used in exploring and guiding education policy makers on how best to respond to the range of possible futures. The paper aims to discuss this issue.

This study utilizes elements of prior scenario planning methodologies to devise a practical model of preferred and plausible likely scenarios in the context of rapid and continuing technology disruption. Based on the notion of “impact and uncertainty,” two possible future alternatives of work and learning were developed. Incorporating elements of the possibility space scenario framework and a vignette approach of current emergent technologies, this paper assessed the usefulness of the preferred and likely outcomes.

While preferred future scenarios entailing collaborative styles such as human–machine cooperation, smart virtual active learning campuses and living knowledge learning environments may produce more desirable benefits for education stakeholders, the more likely plausible scenario is one based on continued disruptive technologies. Automation, artificial intelligence and the advent of 5G network technologies will drive customization and personalization in higher education delivery and revolutionize the work landscape in the immediate future. Universities will need to embrace and respond to these changes.

The paper gives insights into how universities can prepare their students for future of work and improve their employability. In addition, this author recommends ways in which HEIs can leverage these newer technologies to drive educational services and commercial value.

Examines consumer preferences for forthcoming technological innovations. Studies consumer response to different levels of technology over time. Looks at preferences for existing and intermediate technologies when future ones are expected. Focuses on technological consumer durables that are expected to evolve over time. The primary contributions of this research are: an understanding of how consumer preferences for a technology are affected by the time of adoption; an understanding of the value to consumers of obtaining different levels of a technology, at different points in time; and the utilization of parsimonious indices to assess consumer response to different levels of technology over time. An empirical examination is conducted for high definition television (HDTV). Using survey data, the study explores consumer preferences for HDTV, and for interim television technologies. Managerial implications to aid product design, and the timing of introduction of evolving technological innovations, are also discussed.

This paper aims to focus on 11 digital technologies (i.e. building information modeling, artificial intelligence and machine learning, 3D scanning, sensors, robots/automation, digital twin, virtual reality, 3D printing, drones, cloud computing and self-driving vehicles) that are portrayed in future trend reports and hype curves. The study concentrates on the current usage and knowledge of digital technologies in the Swedish architecture, engineering and construction (AEC) industry to gain an insight in the possible expectations and future trajectory of these digital technologies.

The study applies an abductive approach which is based on three different types of methods. These methods are a literature and document study which focused on 11 digital technologies, two workshops with industry (13 participants) and an online survey (N = 84).

The paper contributes to a current state analysis of the Swedish AEC industry concerning digital technologies and discusses the trajectory of these technologies for the AEC industry. The paper identifies hype factors, in which the knowledge of a digital technology is related to its usage. From the hype factors, four zones that show different stages of digital technology usage and maturity in the industry are induced.

The contribution of the paper is twofold. The paper shows insight into opportunities, the current barriers, use and knowledge of digital technologies for the different actors in the AEC industry. Furthermore, the study shows that the AEC industry is behind the traditional Gartner hype curves and contributes with defining four zones for digital technologies for the Swedish AEC industry: confusion, excitement, experimentation and integration.