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Article
Publication date: 31 July 2018

Oyakhilome Wallace Ibhagui

The purpose of this paper is to empirically analyse how different exchange rate regimes affect the links between monetary fundamentals and exchange rates in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to empirically analyse how different exchange rate regimes affect the links between monetary fundamentals and exchange rates in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Design/methodology/approach

Using the Pedroni method for panel cointegration, mean group and pooled mean group and the panel vector autoregressive technique, this study empirically investigates whether monetary fundamentals impact exchange rates similarly in both regimes. Thus, the author acquires needed and credible empirical data.

Findings

The result suggests that the impact is dissimilar. In the floating regime, an increase in relative money supply and relative real output depreciates and appreciates the nominal exchange rate in the long run whereas in the non-floating regime, the evidence is mixed. Thus, exchange rates bear a theoretically consistent relationship with monetary fundamentals across SSA countries with floating regimes but fails under non-floating regimes. This provides evidence that regime choice is important if the relationship between monetary fundamentals and exchange rates in SSA are to be theoretically consistent.

Originality/value

This study empirically incorporates the dissimilarities in exchange rate regimes in a panel framework and study the links between exchange rates and monetary fundamentals. The focus on how exchange rate regimes might alter the equilibrium relationships between exchange rates and monetary fundamentals in SSA is a pioneering experiment.

Details

China Finance Review International, vol. 9 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2044-1398

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Book part
Publication date: 21 December 2010

Raul Razo-Garcia

This chapter deals with the estimation of the effect of exchange rate flexibility on financial account openness. The purpose of our analysis is twofold: On the one hand…

Abstract

This chapter deals with the estimation of the effect of exchange rate flexibility on financial account openness. The purpose of our analysis is twofold: On the one hand, we try to quantify the differences in the estimated parameters when exchange rate flexibility is treated as an exogenous regressor. On the other hand, we try to identify how two different degrees of exchange rate flexibility (intermediate vs floating regimes) affect the propensity of opening the financial account. We argue that a simultaneous determination of exchange rate and financial account policies must be acknowledged in order to obtain reliable estimates of their interaction and determinants. Using a panel data set of advanced countries and emerging markets, a trivariate probit model is estimated via a maximum simulated likelihood approach. In line with the monetary policy trilemma, our results show that countries switching from an intermediate regime to a floating arrangement are more likely to remove capital controls. In addition, the estimated coefficients exhibit important differences when exchange rate flexibility is treated as an exogenous regressor relative to the case when it is treated as endogenous.

Details

Maximum Simulated Likelihood Methods and Applications
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-0-85724-150-4

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Article
Publication date: 24 May 2013

Amit Ghosh

Exchange rate regime decisively impacts key policy objectives such as financial stability, inflation control, etc. The purpose of this paper is to overview the evolution…

Abstract

Purpose

Exchange rate regime decisively impacts key policy objectives such as financial stability, inflation control, etc. The purpose of this paper is to overview the evolution of exchange rate regimes spanning 12 nations in the Latin American region over the last two decades and estimate the degrees of influence of other major currencies on each nation.

Design/methodology/approach

Using the methodology developed by Frankel and Wei, the de facto extent of exchange rate flexibility is discerned for these nations and put into perspective with that of the IMF exchange rate regime classifications.

Findings

An increase in flexibility is found from the 1990s to the 2000s, especially for inflation targeting nations. However, the results reveal these nations adopt a policy of “guarded caution” and follow more of a de facto managed floating regime that is far from pure floats. The smaller economies of the region still pursue more fixed regimes. While the results correlate, to an extent, with the IMF's classifications, several areas of discrepancy are noted. The findings are robust to several sensitivity analyses.

Originality/value

A discrepancy between the IMF regime categorization and the true regime a country actually follows may cause IMF financial assistance programs to be less effective. Do countries follow regimes they are classified into? The present study gleans deeper into the issue and discerns this. The comparative analysis includes the relatively larger economies of the region as well as the seldom researched smaller ones.

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Book part
Publication date: 13 May 2019

Rosaria Rita Canale and Rajmund Mirdala

The role of money and monetary policy of the central bank in pursuing macroeconomic stability has significantly changed over the period since the end of World War II…

Abstract

The role of money and monetary policy of the central bank in pursuing macroeconomic stability has significantly changed over the period since the end of World War II. Globalization, liberalization, integration, and transition processes generally shaped the crucial milestones of the macroeconomic development and substantial features of economic policy and its framework in Europe. Policy-driven changes together with variety of exogenous shocks significantly affected the key features of macroeconomic environment on the European continent that fashioned the framework and design of monetary policies.

This chapter examines the key basis of the central bank’s monetary policy on its way to pursue and preserve the internal and external stability of the purchasing power of money. Substantial elements of the monetary policy like objectives and strategies are not only generally introduced but also critically discussed according to their accuracy, suitability, and reliability in the changing macroeconomic conditions. Brief overview of the Eurozone common monetary policy milestones and the past Eastern bloc countries’ experience with a variety of exchange rate regimes provides interesting empirical evidence on origins and implications of vital changes in the monetary policy conduction in Europe and the Eurozone.

Details

Fiscal and Monetary Policy in the Eurozone: Theoretical Concepts and Empirical Evidence
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78743-793-7

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Abstract

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Central Bank Policy: Theory and Practice
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78973-751-6

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Article
Publication date: 2 November 2012

Komain Jiranyakul

The purpose of the present study is to directly examine the relationship between bilateral exchange rate and stock market index in a bivariate framework during the period…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of the present study is to directly examine the relationship between bilateral exchange rate and stock market index in a bivariate framework during the period of the floating exchange rate regime in Thailand.

Design/methodology/approach

The monthly data used in this study are the stock market index or stock prices from the Stock Exchange of Thailand, and the nominal bilateral exchange rate in terms of baht per US dollar from the Bank of Thailand. The period covers July 1997 to June 2010 with 156 observations. This is the period that the country switched from fixed to floating exchange rate regime. The stock market return is calculated by the percentage change of stock market index (or stock prices) while the exchange rate return is the percentage change of the nominal bilateral exchange rate. Three estimation methods are used to capture the interaction between stock and foreign exchange markets: bounds testing for cointegration, non‐causality test, and the two‐step approach with a bivariate GARCH model and Granger causality test.

Findings

The results of the present study show that bounds testing for cointegration does not detect the long‐run relationship between stock prices and exchange rate. In addition, the non‐causality test fails the diagnostic test for multivariate normality in the residuals of the estimated VAR model. However, the two‐step approach adequately detects the linkages between the stock and foreign exchange markets. It is found that there exists positive unidirectional causality running from stock market return to exchange rate return. The exchange rate risk causes stock return to fall as expected. Moreover, there are bidirectional causal relations between stock market risk and exchange rate risk, but in different directions.

Research limitations/implications

Since a rising trend in the risk in the foreign exchange market causes stock return to fall, both domestic and foreign investors should be aware of the risk or uncertainty in the foreign exchange market because it can cause their portfolio return to fall. For policymakers, reducing exchange rate risk cannot be done without the associated costs from a rising risk in the stock market.

Originality/value

This study provides an evidence of volatility (or risk) spillovers in stock and foreign exchange markets. In addition, the risk in foreign exchange market that adversely affects return in the stock market is an expected phenomenon under the floating exchange rate regime.

Details

Journal of Financial Economic Policy, vol. 4 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1757-6385

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Book part
Publication date: 1 July 2015

Mohamed Kadria and Mohamed Safouane Ben Aissa

This chapter attempts to analyze mainly the interactions between the implementation of inflation targeting (IT) policy and performance in the conduct of economic policies…

Abstract

This chapter attempts to analyze mainly the interactions between the implementation of inflation targeting (IT) policy and performance in the conduct of economic policies (fiscal and exchange rate) in emerging countries. More precisely, empirical studies conducted in this chapter aim to apprehend the feedback effect of this strategy of monetary policy on the budget deficit and volatility of exchange rate performance. This said, we consider the institutional framework as endogenous to IT and analyze the response of authorities to the adoption of this monetary regime. To do this, the retained methodological path in this chapter is an empirical way, based on the econometrics of panel data. First, our contribution to the existing literature is to evaluate the time-varying treatment effect of IT’s adoption on the budget deficit of emerging inflation targeters, using the propensity score matching approach. Our empirical analysis, conducted on a sample of 34 economies (13 IT and 21 non-IT economies) for the period from 1990 to 2010, show a significant impact of IT on the reduction of budget deficit in emerging countries having adopted this monetary policy framework. Therefore, we can say that the emerging government can benefit ex post and gradually from a decline in their public deficits. Retaining the same econometric approach and sample, we tried secondly to empirically examine whether the adoption of IT in emerging inflation targeters has been effectively translated by an increase in the nominal effective exchange rate volatility compared to non-IT countries. Our results show that this effect is decreasing and that this volatility is becoming less important after the shift to this monetary regime. We might suggest that this indirect and occasional intervention in the foreign exchange market can be made by fear of inflation rather than by fear of floating hence in most emerging countries that have adopted the IT strategy. Finally, we can say that our conclusions corroborate the literature of disciplining effects of IT regime on fiscal policy performance as well as the two controversial effects of IT on the nominal effective exchange rate volatility.

Details

Monetary Policy in the Context of the Financial Crisis: New Challenges and Lessons
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78441-779-6

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Article
Publication date: 17 January 2020

Walid M.A. Ahmed

This study focuses on Egypt’s recent experience with exchange rate policies, examining the existence of spillover effects of exchange rate variations on stock prices…

Abstract

Purpose

This study focuses on Egypt’s recent experience with exchange rate policies, examining the existence of spillover effects of exchange rate variations on stock prices across two different de facto regimes and whether these effects, if any, are asymmetric.

Design/methodology/approach

The empirical analysis is carried out using a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag modeling framework, which permits testing for the presence of short- and long-run asymmetries. Relevant local and global factors are also included in the analysis as control variables. The authors divide the entire sample into a soft peg period and a free float one.

Findings

Over the soft peg regime period, both positive and negative changes in EGP/USD exchange rates seem to have a significant impact on stock returns, whether in the short or long run. Short-term asymmetric effects vanish in the free float period, while long-term asymmetries continue to exist. By and large, the authors find that currency depreciation tends to exercise a stronger influence on stock returns than does currency appreciation.

Practical implications

The results offer important insights for investors, regulators and policymakers. With the domestic currency depreciation having a negative impact on stock prices, investors should contemplate implementing appropriate currency hedging strategies to abate depreciation risks and, hence, preserve their expected rate of return on the Egyptian pound-denominated investments. In the current post-flotation era, the government could pursue a flexible inflation targeting monetary policy framework, with a view to both lowering the soaring inflation toward an announced target rate and stabilizing economic growth. The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) could adopt indirect monetary policy instruments to secure tightened liquidity conditions. Besides, the CBE could raise policy rates to incentivize people to keep their money in local currency-denominated instruments, instead of dollarizing their savings, thereby relieving banks of foreign currency demand pressures. Nevertheless, while being beneficial to the country’s real economy on several aspects, such contractionary monetary measures may temporarily impinge on stock market performance. Accordingly, policymakers should consider precautionary measures that reduce the potential for price distortions and unnecessary volatility in the stock market.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, the current study represents the first attempt to explore the potential impact of exchange rate changes under different regimes on Egypt’s stock market, thus contributing to the relevant research in this area.

Details

Review of Accounting and Finance, vol. 19 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1475-7702

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Article
Publication date: 3 June 2021

Chokri Zehri

By reinforcing monetary policy independence, reducing international financing pressures and avoiding high-risk takings, capital controls strengthen the stability of the…

Abstract

Purpose

By reinforcing monetary policy independence, reducing international financing pressures and avoiding high-risk takings, capital controls strengthen the stability of the financial system and then reduce the volatility of capital inflows. The objective of this study was to conduct an empirical examination of this hypothesis. This topic has received strong support in the theoretical literature; however, empirical work has been quite limited, with few empirical studies that provide direct empirical support to this hypothesis.

Design/methodology/approach

This study analyzed quarterly data of 32 emerging economies over the period between 2000 and 2015 and proposes two methods to identify capital control actions. Using panel analysis, Autoregressive Distributed Lag and local projections approaches.

Findings

This study found that tighter capital controls may diminish monetary and exchange rate shocks and reduce capital inflows volatility. Furthermore, capital controls respond counter-cyclically to monetary shocks. Under capital controls, countries with floating exchange rate regimes have more potential to buffer monetary shocks. We also found that capital controls on inflows are more effective for reducing the volatility of capital inflows compared to capital controls on outflows.

Originality/value

This study contributes to the question of the effectiveness of capital controls in attenuating the effects of international shocks and reducing the volatility of capital flows. Previous studies have mostly focused on the role of macroprudential regulation; however, there is a lack of systematic effects of capital controls on monetary and exchange rate policies. To our knowledge, this is the first preliminary study to suggest that capital controls may buffer monetary and exchange rate shocks and reduce the volatility of capital inflows. This study investigates the novel notion that capital controls allow for a notable counter-cyclical response of monetary and exchange rate policies to international financial shocks.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

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Article
Publication date: 20 July 2015

J. Markham Collins and Michael L. Troilo

The purpose of this article is to investigate how national-level characteristics such as country wealth, a floating exchange rate and European Union (EU) membership…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this article is to investigate how national-level characteristics such as country wealth, a floating exchange rate and European Union (EU) membership influence firm-level perceptions of competition and firm-level innovation. Greater understanding of these relationships can promote more effective policymaking as well as add to the existing academic conversation regarding national factors and firm competitiveness.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors’ data consist of a panel of 27 countries in Central and Eastern Europe and Central Asia from 2002 to 2009 with a total of nearly 27,000 firms from the World Bank Enterprise Survey. The authors utilize a multinomial logistic regression to estimate firm-level perceptions of both domestic and foreign competition upon decisions to introduce new products and manage new product costs. The authors then estimate the probability of innovation (introduction of a new product/service, obtaining international quality certification) using a logistic regression. The marginal effects of the key explanatory variables for country wealth, floating exchange rate and EU membership are calculated.

Findings

While EU membership heightens perceptions of competition, firms in the EU are less likely to introduce new products or services. On the other hand, a firm in an EU member country is more likely to obtain international quality certification than one that is not. Both country wealth and a floating exchange correlate with enhanced perceptions of competition and innovation as expected.

Originality/value

The first finding regarding heightened perceptions of competition yet lower likelihood of introduction of new products/services among EU firms is surprising. Beyond adding to the empirical store of knowledge regarding the relationship of national factors to firm competitiveness, it suggests that more needs to be done with regard to innovation policy. The authors offer a general recommendation to employ more public–private partnerships for innovation among small and medium enterprises, as this has been effective in other parts of the world.

Details

Competitiveness Review, vol. 25 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1059-5422

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